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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Dec 29 -
Brazil Economics databank Jan 20
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Central America databank Dec 19
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Chile databank Nov 28
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Dec 19
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Dominican Republic databank Dec 23
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Ecuador databank Jan 21
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Gulf Countries databank Jan 16
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Hungary databank Dec 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jan 15
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Dec 12
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Philippines databank Jan 8
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Jan 16
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South Africa databank Jan 6
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Jan 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - VENEZUELA: WHAT'S NEXT?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Mixed feelings about the fiscal figures of H1 2023
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023
This time around, the MNB reported the general government sector's net financing requirement, which tends to be a good proxy for the general government balance figure, the main policy indicator of fiscal performance for any given period. For H1, the latter is due for release only on October 3. Th...
Lula participates in a BRICS meeting in South Africa, the House should vote on the fiscal framework this week, and Sen. Alencar should submit his report on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023
President Lula participates in a BRICS meeting in South Africa. He should only announce changes to the ministerial team after he returns to the country next Sunday (27). This week, the House may vote on the new fiscal framework. Today (21), Arthur Lira (PP-AL) has a meeting with the rapporteur, D...
Russian spacecraft crashes on the moon
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023
On August 20 Luna-25 had a botched landing on the moon according to the Russian space agency (Roscosmos). Roscosmos lost contact with the craft. It is unclear what caused the problem. Luna-25 was scheduled to land on the moon on August 21. Roscosmos has growing problems due to being cut off from ...
A second electoral round with a huge surprise
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023
With around 75% of votes counted at national level, it is certain that Ecuadorians will go to vote in a second round in which Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will be seeking the presidency of the country. While the 33% vote for Gonzalez were somewhat expected and represents the hard vote for the ...
Zelensky visits Holland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023
On August 20 Zelensky was in the Netherlands to thank the Dutch for the F16 fighter jets they are gifting to Ukraine. The planes will probably not arrive by the end of 2023. 11 European nations are training Ukrainians on F16s. Only the Netherlands and Denmark have pledged to donate F16s. The plan...
Chinese Defense Minister in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023
On August 18 Li Shangfu ended a 4-day visit to Belarus and Russia. The aim of the trip was to deepen military ties. He met Putin, Lukashenko and the defense minister of both countries. Russian state media enthusiastically covered the visit. It proves that Russia is not alone in the world. Belarus...
Russian macro: the ruble - back to a normal trajectory
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2023
After the Russian Central Bank hiked the key rate a few days ago, the ruble bounced back to the low USD/RUB 90s area, which currently seems a sort of comfortable equilibrium zone for the exchange rate. The CBR mentioned accelerating inflation as the main reason for the key rate hike, which seems ...
UN discusses Azerbaijani blockade of Armenian-held land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2023
On August 16 the UN Security Council discussed Azerbaijan's blockade of the Lachin Corridor. But it did not decide on action. The Red Cross has said that it urgently needs to deliver humanitarian aid. The UN wants this to resume. Lachin is critically short of medicine and food. The Armenian ambas...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi extends debt maturity, Iranian FM meets MBS, UAE trades oil in rupees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2023
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia extended the average maturity of its local sukuk in a $10bn buy-back and issuance. * PIF could get a cash windfall of up to $8bn if SoftBank buys its Vision Fund holdings in Arm. * Iran’s foreign minister vis...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Continued pressure on Uzbekistani sum should make local currency investments challenging in medium term
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Aug 2023
The decision last week to devalue the sum in a more forceful manner has led us to think deeper about an argument that we have been consistently making to clients, i.e., that macroeconomic developments that usually tend to influence currency movements will pale in comparison to underlying (and lar...
Allegations against Bolsonaro worsen, Congress is still waiting for ministerial reform, and the House may vote on the new fiscal framework next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2023
Yesterday (17), in a hearing of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the January 8 attacks, hacker Walter Delgatti said Bolsonaro promised him a pardon if he was arrested for hacking electronic voting machines and stated that Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Mora...
New polls show an improvement in Lula’s rate of approval, the TCU postponed the adjudication of a case regarding board positions in regulatory agencies, and the negotiations on ministerial reform continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2023
Two opinion polls highlight the different situations of the country's two main political leaders. The approval of the Lula government (PT) reached 60% in the Genial/Quaest poll of August 16, an increase of four points in relation to the June poll. Another point of positive news for Lula was the i...
Still on pause
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Aug 2023
As expected, the Monetary Board maintained policy settings for the third time, keeping the key overnight rate at 6.25%. In his first policy press conference, BSP Governor Eli Remolona reiterated that the authorities remain prepared to resume tightening if the need arises. After tweaking downwards...
South Africa’s political economy temperature is rising
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023
This week South Africa is abuzz with much political noise. To begin with today is the anniversary of the Marikana Massacre 11 years ago where 34 mine workers were mowed down by the police at Lonmin platinum mine, partly owned by President Ramaphosa, who then was a high profile and influential mem...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023
The rapid depreciation of the ruble became the main event in the past weeks (especially at the end of last week). Since the start of the month, it moved by more than 10% by August 15 (from R/$91.6 to $/R101) and encouraged the authorities to act. As a result, the CBR called for an extraordinary B...