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KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Aug 5 NC KMG: In 1H22 KazMunayGas increased oil production (including gas condensate) by 0.3% y-o-y and gas production by 0.8% y-o-y Aug 10 NCOC: Oil production has resumed at the Kashagan field, suspended due to a gas leak at one of the facilities Aug 11 Energy Ministry: Oil production at the Ka...

August data shows a still-struggling economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months: the supply side of the economy is recovering slowly, thanks to aggressive fiscal and monetary support, while the demand side continues to struggle. * The P...

The TSE announced the TV times for each presidential candidate, Lula and Bolsonaro have started addressing their government plans, and the presidential candidates will be interviewed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

Lula (PT) will have the longest time: 3 minutes and 39 seconds plus 286 30-second ads. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will be entitled to 2 minutes and 38 seconds and 207 ads. Lula said that the main Brazilian public companies will not be privatized. He cited Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econ...

Russia reinforces Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Ukraine is building up forces for its stated objective to retake Kherson. Pundits doubt that Ukraine can retake it with infantry. However, Russia is moving in more troops to Kherson. Some of these are elite paratroopers. Russia now has about 20,000 troops in Kherson. Ukraine has taken villages ne...

Consumer prices continue to fall in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 15, consumer prices fell by 0.13% w-o-w bringing the MTD deflation to 0.23%. Inflation YTD fell to 10.72% Prices continue to fall across a wide range of products, albeit some selected protein-containing foodstuffs became more expensive, such as...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth slows as geopolitical uncertainty bites
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Aug 2022

After Kazakhstan’s GDP grew in 1Q22 by 4.4% y-o-y, the Bureau of National Statistics preliminarily reported that in 1H22, the economy grew by 3.4%. If so, then it means that in 2H22, the GDP grew less than 2.5% y-o-y. It looks as though the economy continued to slow in July as well, as the short-...

The Datafolha poll is scheduled to be published today, Bolsonaro continues to make promises to the electorate, and the Federal Police asked for permission to indict Bolsonaro for spreading fake news about the COVID-19 vaccine
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2022

In Datafolha’s most recent poll, published on July 28, Lula had 47% of voters' intentions, and Bolsonaro, 29%. It will also publish polls for the three largest electoral states in the country, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro said the government does not yet know what the sa...

Fanning the flames
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised the markets --and us-- today by cutting the policy rate (one week repo) by 100 bps to 13%. There are a couple of revisions in the usual accompanying statement (link here), which, parenthetically, is about 100-150 words longer than the previous one (which is...

Another 50bp rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

The Monetary Board today decided to increase its set of policy rates by 50bp, bringing the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 3.75% effective tomorrow. Year to date, policy rates are up by 175bp following more aggressive tightening since July in response to rising inflation. Per the BSP, inflat...

Half of Russian air traffic controllers not working
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2022

On August 17 the Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that almost 50% of the air traffic controllers in the country have been laid off or are furloughed. There has been severe shrinkage in Russian aviation. In February 2022 the EU and several other countries banned Russian and Belarusian airlines...

The Quaest poll shows that Lula is in the lead with 45% of intended votes, the first day of electoral campaigns was marked by conflicts, and the government needs to send the Federal Budget to Congress by the end of the month
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2022

According to the Quaest poll published today, the Auxílio Brasil program has not yet had its effect on voters. Lula is in the lead with 45%, and Bolsonaro is in second place with 33%. The margin of error is 2%. On the first day of the electoral campaigns Ciro Gomes, from the PDT, said that a poss...

Russian Defense Minister says there is no need to use nuclear arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2022

On August 16 the announcement was made. There has been chatter in the Western media that Russia might resort to a tactical nuclear strike as the war is progressing so slowly. Minister Shoigu said there was ''no military need'' to do this. But why did he add the word ''military''? Is there a non-m...

Q2 GDP growth slightly above expectation, currency market remains unimpressed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2022

As reported this morning, GDP grew by 1.1% qoq, 6.5% yoy in Q2, down from 2.1% qoq, 8% yoy in Q1. This was slightly above the 6.1% yoy median expectation of Portfolio.hu's analyst poll, which obviously followed the MNB's indication in late July that its weekly activity indicator WEAI predicted 6%...

Of electrons and tax reforms
COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Petro administration submitted its tax reform proposal to Congress in August instead of October, out of sync with the usual timing. This was the first major act of the new government, which speaks volumes. Unsurprisingly, the expected yield is nowhere near the COP 50 trillion (3.5% of GDP, us...

Election campaigns begin, Minister Alexandre de Moraes assumes the presidency of the TSE, and the working group on the ICMS issue meets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro will have some difficulties ahead. According to the polls, he is behind his main opponent, former President Lula, and has the highest rate of rejection among the candidates. Both Bolsonaro and Lula are expected to attend the inauguration ceremony at the TSE. Their partici...

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