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​The state of Turkish opposition: Is a rebirth possible?
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021

For decade or so, I and Turkey commentators viewed Turkey through the lens of Erdogan’s eye. This was rational, as he completely dominated the political scene, outmaneuvering the opposition and deciding the national agenda in every sense of the world. I claim the end of the Erdogan Era is drawing...

Further thoughts on the new Bahamas government lack of a "honeymoon". Is any change to "Thunderball" note required?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021 · 1 response

It is useful to look further at whether the recent Moody's ratings downgrade signifies any material change in The Bahamas position since my "Thunderball" pre-election note.1) Was the downgrade due to the election result? - Not very likely. The rating meeting occurred the day before the election a...

OFZ: Minfin becomes less aggressive on the primary market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021

This week the Finance Ministry offered the market a preliminary fixed amount of OFZ (R15 bln), the first time since the middle of July. During the previous auctions, the supply was not limited and the borrower made the decision regarding the size of the placement after collecting the orders. Toda...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: United Russia wins constitutional majority ahead of 2024 presidential election
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2021 · 1 response

As time goes by, Russia is still among the least vaccinated countries in the world, and the vaccination process in the country remained slow in August and September – only 32.3% of Russians had gotten at least one dose of the vaccine, and 28.2% were fully vaccinated as of September 22. The daily ...

The need for further monetary tightening has become more evident lately
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Sep 2021

The 4th wave of Covid is now definitely underway, as expected. Despite similarities to last September’s developments, it has become more difficult to measure the true size and dynamics of the epidemic, as widespread vaccination made the identification of infected people more difficult than it use...

The Special Committee on the court-ordered payments PEC was created in the House yesterday, the Administrative Reform Committee should meet today, and the Economic Affairs Committee of the Senate approved the BR do Mar bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2021

The goal is for the Special Committee to vote on the court-ordered payments PEC in about 10 days. Rodrigo Pacheco has said that the government is looking into paying R$ 40 billion up front and the remaining R$ 50 billion via some other payment alternative. The rapporteur of the Administrative Ref...

​The circus is in town
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021

The 2022 presidential election is shaping up to be as we expected in our August Forecast report[1], i.e., a multi-contested fight.What we know at this time:Announced candidacy for the presidency: Senator Panfilo Lacson (age, 73), Senator Manuel Pacquiao (42) and Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso (4...

As Washington chides, economic recovery persists
UKRAINE · Report · 21 Sep 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to the United States was the most important event of recent weeks. Official Kyiv has been lobbying for so long to get face-to-face time with the White House that the very fact of the event was seen as a major success. The Ukrainian delegation reported many im...

​A timid and general sketch of the content of the tax reform proposal
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

The Dominican government delivered at the last meeting of the Economic and Social Council on September 15, the document Dialogue of Reforms 2021: Introductory Document for Discussion, in which it roughly outlines the content of the 12 proposed reforms for discussion with the representatives of po...

Ukraine prolongs coronavirus state of emergency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

On September 20 Kyiv said the state of emergency will last until December 31, 2021, at least. It is classified as a ''yellow epidemic''. This means there are restrictions on how many people can gather in public and it means mask mandates and social distancing. The yellow restrictions are not appl...

Russian parliamentary elections lead to victory for ruling party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

The outcome is no surprise. The United Russia Party is the main pro-Kremlin party although Putin has not been a member for over 10 years. United Russia has 315 out of the 450 seats in the Duma.Turnout was fairly low. It is alleged that the government ordered civil servants and soldiers to vote. T...

Caught in a crossfire, Castillo offers more government spending
PERU · Report · 21 Sep 2021

After seven weeks in government, the new president has proven difficult to read. Pedro Castillo’s indecisiveness may be explained by his being caught in the crossfire between his own supporters and the opposition parties in Congress. Castillo has so far kept a low profile: he has delivered only o...

A further 15 bps rate hike from the MNB today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

The Monetary Council held its September rate-setting meeting today. They also discussed the Q3 inflation report. A summary of the decisions and of vice president Virág's online commentary follows here.The Bank sees inflationary risks still pointing upwards. For the rest of 2021, they expect the h...

The Administrative Reform proposal and the court-ordered payments PEC should see progress in the House, the BR do Mar bill should be put to a vote in the Senate committee, and Wagner Rosário should testify in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2021

The rapporteur for the Administrative Reform proposal, Deputy Arthur Maia (DEM-BA), should submit a new text on the changes to be voted on this week. The Special Committee is expected to vote on the text on Wednesday or Thursday. Arthur Lira, Rodrigo Pacheco and Paulo Guedes should meet today to ...

Opposition discord and its consequences
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Sep 2021

With only two months remaining before election day, the opposition has failed not only to finish choosing all its candidates but also to practice consistent messaging as to whether it will even take part in elections. Moreover, it is neglecting the task of readying itself to be able to detect, do...

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