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Politics: AMLO’s social budget priorities and what they really mean for low-income households
MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Where an administration chooses to allocate funding can provide a fairly reliable idea of that government’s real priorities, and a review of the 2022 spending budget reaffirms the priority President Andrés Manuel López Obrador assigns to social spending, especially when it comes to funding the pr...

Economics: Pros and cons in the government’s 2022 revenue and spending plans
MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2021

In our follow up to last week’s initial review of the López Obrador Administration’s 2022 budget package we delve deeper into its revenue and spending bills, which further confirm our earlier conclusion that the 2022 budget package suffers from many of the same weaknesses as its three predecessor...

Request for the payroll tax exemption bill and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

This week, an agreement may be reached on the court-ordered payments Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The Administrative Reform Committee may vote on Dep. Arthur Maia’s (DEM-BA) report. The House will analyze the urgent status request for the payroll tax exemption bill. In the Senate, the...

Turkey Covid Watch - September 20, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Cases rose substantially over the past two weeks, and should be expected to rise further, with schools having reopened. While the risk is there, we don’t expect new lockdowns in our baseline scenario, as it seems that Turkey, as several other countries, has entered a “new normal” of living with t...

Mapping the Path Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

THE MONETARY POLICY MAP – Next Wednesday, the COPOM will probably raise the SELIC rate by 100 basis points. After many fits and starts and confusing signs, the Bank’s president finally recognized that it will do “whatever it takes” to bring inflation back to the target. All the signals given so f...

The court-ordered payments PEC, the Administrative Reform PEC and the payroll tax exemption bill should be put to a vote, the rapporteur of the Pandemic CPI should submit his final report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Arthur Lira would like to speed up the processing time for the court-ordered payments PEC. The proposal was approved in the CCJ last week. Dep. Arthur Maia should submit a new report on the Administrative Reform PEC. The proposal should be put to a vote in the Special Committee this week. The Sen...

A formal breakup of the ruling coalition was avoided. But at what cost?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 20 Sep 2021

On September 20, at 4 pm BA time, President Alberto Fernandez (AF)accepted the oaths of office of the new ministers who emerged after the abrasive negotiations he held with the Kirchnerists, and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) in particular.Both sides had to give in regarding their initial e...

Now comes the hard part
TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2021

After the summer pause, Turkey’s diplomatic agenda is slowly coming to fore. President Erdogan’s visit to NYC to address the UN General Assembly is largely symbolic. Afterwards, he shall head to Sochi to convince Putin to cut him some slack in Idlib Syria. He may fail to persuade him and face...

Gas price rise means bonanza for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2021

As world gas prices rise this means that Russian companies such as Gazprom will reap a reward. The price hikes also redouble the argument for Nord Stream 2. Spot prices for natural gas in Europe were up 20% at one stage on September 15. Gas is a vital energy source for homes and industry. Prices ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Iran avoids IAEA censure, splits open in Kuwait opposition, Bahrain tourism begins recovery
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Sep 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran avoided a censure at the IAEA and appointed a hardline deputy foreign minister who may lead nuclear talks. * The Saudi Q2 GDP beat its flash estimate, growing by 1.8% y/y, including 8.4% for the non-oil sector. * A d...

Webinar Replay: Rethinking Ecuador: Is now the time?
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2021

Visit our calendar page to watch Magdalena Barreiro discuss how ​ a new IMF program, higher commodities prices, and a centrist president appear to have Ecuador positioned for a comeback, and the risks and opportunities in the country’s current macro and political environment.

Pres. Bolsonaro increases the IOF tax in hope of lowering food prices, the Executive Office submitted a bill to the House providing for gradual reduction of federal tax incentives and benefits, and the court-ordered payments PEC approved in the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2021

The Federal Government is expected to raise R$ 2.14 billion in order to fund the Auxilio Brasil program and remove the PIS/Cofins tax on corn imports. Arthur Lira may still decide to decrease the processing time of the court-ordered payments PEC by attaching it to another PEC that has already bee...

Prime Minister Hubert Minnis concedes election. Bahamas Government changes
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2021 · 1 response

Former Prime Minister Hubert Minnis has conceded the election to the PLP's Philip "Brave Davis". There does not appear to be a final seat count yet but the newspapers project the new Government will have a healthy majority, which is positive in this environment. Apparently it was not a good idea ...

Spending plan 2022
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2021

On September 15, MinFin submitted spending plan 2022 to the parliament, and yesterday it was finally released to the public. We saw nothing extraordinary in the proposed spending plan. However, there are several points we want to highlight for our readers. The proposed spending plan was developed...

President Abinader details constitutional reform content, but the content of the tax reform is pending.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Sep 2021

Yesterday, in the dialogue of the political parties called by President Abinader to agree on an agenda of 13 reforms, only the government's proposal on the constitutional reform was presented, leaving for the next meetings the presentation of the content of the remaining reforms, including the fi...