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No real surprises in the August CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

The CPI in August rose by 0.3% m/m (in line with consensus, we were expecting 0.24%) and by 2.2% y/y, up from 1.9% last month. Core inflation rose by 0.2% and by 1.9% y/y, up from 1.7% last month.There were no real surprises in the various items. The main housing (rental) item increased slightly ...

The court-ordered payments PEC to be put to a vote in the CCJ, the Special Committee on Administrative Reform to vote on Arthur Maia’s report, and the PGR asked the STF to suspend Bolsonaro’s MP on content limitation on social media
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2021

A request to review the text may postpone the vote on the court-ordered payments PEC unitl next week. President of the House Arthur Lira hopes to send the Administrative Reform proposal to the Senate by early October. The plenary of the House will resume voting on the Electoral Reform proposal. T...

Ukrainian gas controversy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

On September 8 three members of Naftogaz's board of supervisors resigned. The three members are all foreigners. Naftogaz sought Western board members to give it more credibility. The resignations came as the board members kept clashing with the CEO Yuriy Vitrenko.Years of mismanagement have meant...

OFZ: In stand-by mode
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Sep 2021 · 1 response

The CBR’s hawkish message is likely to put a pause on the inflow of international investors’ funds into the OFZ market. The yields in the long end of the curve remain attractive in real terms, especially in anticipation of a potential cut of the inflation target by the regulator, but the moment t...

Delinking debt in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2021

China’s leadership is promoting the concept of delinking debt from government obligations. Two recent examples are the high profile debt workouts for property developer Evergrande and asset management company Huarong, which have raised questions about the Chinese government’s support for the corp...

GDP growth likely to reach 7% this year; CA surplus remains robust, housing supply remains depressed relative to demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

GDP growth in Q221 was revised to 16.6% (from 15.4%), as private consumption expanded by 39.2% (revised from 36.3%), investments expanded by 13.2% (from 9.7%) and exports by 19.8% (previously 18.1%). We expect GDP growth to reach 7% this year, fueled by strong hi-tech exports and strong private c...

More FX-denominated bonds and reverse FX swaps
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

The market saw a Monday unusually rich with government and central bank measures, to which some extra explanation might be useful.First, the ÁKK revised its annual financing plan, raising its FX-denominated bond issuance target by a large amount, to EUR4.5bn from EUR1.8bn. At the same time, they ...

Politics: What we can expect from the current Congress
MEXICO · Report · 13 Sep 2021

Now that the first ordinary session of the 65th Legislature is underway we are starting to get more of an idea of what we can expect from lawmakers in the next three years, and it spells a tougher road ahead for President López Obrador throughout the final half of his administration. His Morena p...

Fighting Inflation, Fiscal Risk and Tepid Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Sep 2021

With GDP for the second quarter now known, and all signs indicating that the economy is recovering, we project growth for 2021 of 5.2%. Assuming the water crisis does not lead to electricity rationing, our projection for growth in 2022 is 1.2%, meaning expansion of only 0.7 percentage point above...

Economics: Fiscal sustainability doubts to extend through the current administration
MEXICO · Report · 13 Sep 2021

The 2022 budget package the López Obrador administration sent Congress last week suffers from many of the same weaknesses as its 2021 predecessor. Once again, it is overly optimistic in some of its macroeconomic assumptions, and for its revenue and expenditure projections it neglects to point out...

​SAUDI: Q2 GDP beats flash estimate but reveals some sectoral weaknesses
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Sep 2021

Q2 GDP growth of 1.8% y/y was stronger than the flash estimate but the non-oil private sector contracted by -0.5% SA q/q, dragged down by transport and trade & hospitality, whereas the flash had estimated that there would be q/q non-oil growth. Covid trends and restrictions largely explain the se...

Electoral Reform in its decisive day and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2021

The government's economic agenda will be put to the test this week. The court-ordered payments PEC will be put to a vote in the Constitution and Justice Committee of the House. The Special Committee on Administrative Reform will vote on the rapporteur's report. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs...

Dark clouds coming from the Assembly
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Sep 2021 · 1 response

The political sky looks mostly blue after the first 100 days of President Guillermo Lasso’s government. His popularity has hit record highs at 75%, and the government celebrated its 100th day with over nine million Ecuadorians vaccinated, placing Ecuador as Number One in the world in vaccines app...

The government’s legislative agenda put to the test this week, jurists to present a large report on possible crimes Jair Bolsonaro committed during the pandemic, and the STF continues analyzing the case of the demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2021

The House and its committees will discuss the Administrative Reform proposal, the court-ordered payments PEC and the Electoral Code Reform proposal. The Economic Affairs Committee of the Senate may vote on the BR do Mar bill. Also in the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco may reject the provisional measure ...

Primaries suggest a defeat of the government in November
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

As of this writing, with more than 98% of the votes scrutinized in most provinces, including the City of Buenos Aires, and almost 97% in the Province of Buenos Aires, the results of the primary elections are final enough to conclude that the ruling coalition, Frente de Todos (FdT), suffered a con...

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