GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

National accounts for Q3 2022 corroborate the weakening trend in economic activity. While in H1 2022 economic activity was stagnant, in Q3 seasonally-adjusted GDP fell, to its lowest level since Q2 2021. Investment reverted the decline of Q1 2022, returning to Q4 2021 levels. By contrast, househo...

Growth moderating, with inflation trend mixed

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2022

El Salvador’s economic evolution continues along the lines we forecast in our outlook revision of September 2022. Inflation is still high, but slowly descending. Economic activity estimated by the Central Bank’s monthly index has decelerated from the highs of H1 2021, and stopped falling in H2 20...

The EU Commission is set to come forward with its proposal on the Hungarian rule-of-law procedure tomorrow

HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2022

The widespread current expectation is that the Commission will propose to freeze Hungary's access to 65% of its transfer (= development grant) quotas under three major cohesion policy programs of the EU's common budget for 2021-2027, in a total value of €7.5bn. This would be the same proposal as ...

The Transition PEC has been officially submitted, the Joint Budget Committee will hold a public hearing on the 2023 Federal Budget, and Lula decided to have Haddad look over the Transition Team’s working group on the economy

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2022

According to the text of the PEC, the Auxílio Brasil would be removed from the spending ceiling for four years. The total value is around R$200 billion. By submitting the PEC, the elected government is handing Congress the responsibility of defining the text. It is very unlikely that the PEC will...

Politics: Major political reform may be off the table but AMLO sustains his assault on the INE

MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2022

It’s a foregone conclusion that President López Obrador will not succeed in passing his political reform constitutional amendments through Congress this year or any time before he leaves office. He has failed to line up enough votes, and if there was any doubt whether the PRI might once again sup...

Primaries, talks and Maduro’s diplomacy

VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Nov 2022

Two events that have been on the radar for months finally happened. On November 26, the Maduro government and the opposition signed their first agreement in Mexico, and the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued license 41 expanding the scope of Chevron's operations in Ven...

Economics: Results in November may suggest the recovery is peaking as major risks loom

MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2022

Economic news published in November delivered numerous readings of economic activity in Mexico that proved to be much stronger than expected, beginning with a 4.3% yoy surge in third quarter GDP. While manufacturing continued to contribute significantly, thanks to the bounce seen in US GDP and in...

Kazakhstan and Russia affirm their friendship

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2022

On November 28 Putin met the Kazakh President in Moscow. President Tokayev signed an agreement. Tokayev has just been re-elected to serve a 7 year term. He is constitutionally barred from seeking another term after this one. This is his first visit since the election and that in itself is telling...

The future governing coalition and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2022

This will be a decisive week for the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Lula is expected to start announcing the names of his ministerial team. On December 2, the Working Group created by Minister Gilmar Mendes to discuss the constitutionality of the ICMS reduction concludes its ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2022

Four weeks after the runoff election, in the midst of serious uncertainties, some hints have emerged of what can be expected of the new government. An important one is that the PT has changed very little with the passage of time. Lula continues to centralize decisions in his hands, which deters t...

“Yağdır, Mevlam, Yağdır”*

TURKEY · Report · 27 Nov 2022 · 2 responses

To our surprise, Saudi Arabia and Qatar chose to bankroll President Erdogan’s election campaign with generous financial donations. In return, Erdogan promised to meet Assad and shook hands with Sisi. However, neither U-turn signals substantial policy change. Financial aid from Gulf countries poss...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi+Qatar to aid Turkey, Abu Dhabi H1 GDP, Kuwait announces political amnesty

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil ministers denied that a quota increase was being considered in response to the Russia price cap. * Saudi Arabia and Qatar are finalizing up to $15bn in financing support for Turkey. * Saudi nationalism was stoked by a...

Soccer – our hope of last resort

ECUADOR · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The intentions of Correistas, Social Christians, and the rebels from Pachakutik to oust President Guillermo Lasso have not ended. They sent a recent new petition to the Electoral Council to revoke his mandate under the argument of a “failed state”, based on the recent cruel massacres that occurre...

It won't be easy for Lula and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With Lula's return to Brazil after his trip to Egypt, he is expected to announce future members of his ministerial team. Party leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, which may be put to a vote in the Senate by the end of the month. This week's Talking Points: ...

A Disastrous Proposal

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With a public debt that is too big for a developing country and with a real interest rate higher than the economic growth rate, Brazil needs to generate primary surpluses sufficiently large to reduce the debt/GDP ratio to avoid losing control of inflation and hampering economic growth. However, e...