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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fanning the flames
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised the markets --and us-- today by cutting the policy rate (one week repo) by 100 bps to 13%. There are a couple of revisions in the usual accompanying statement (link here), which, parenthetically, is about 100-150 words longer than the previous one (which is...

Another 50bp rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

The Monetary Board today decided to increase its set of policy rates by 50bp, bringing the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 3.75% effective tomorrow. Year to date, policy rates are up by 175bp following more aggressive tightening since July in response to rising inflation. Per the BSP, inflat...

Half of Russian air traffic controllers not working
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2022

On August 17 the Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that almost 50% of the air traffic controllers in the country have been laid off or are furloughed. There has been severe shrinkage in Russian aviation. In February 2022 the EU and several other countries banned Russian and Belarusian airlines...

The Quaest poll shows that Lula is in the lead with 45% of intended votes, the first day of electoral campaigns was marked by conflicts, and the government needs to send the Federal Budget to Congress by the end of the month
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2022

According to the Quaest poll published today, the Auxílio Brasil program has not yet had its effect on voters. Lula is in the lead with 45%, and Bolsonaro is in second place with 33%. The margin of error is 2%. On the first day of the electoral campaigns Ciro Gomes, from the PDT, said that a poss...

Russian Defense Minister says there is no need to use nuclear arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2022

On August 16 the announcement was made. There has been chatter in the Western media that Russia might resort to a tactical nuclear strike as the war is progressing so slowly. Minister Shoigu said there was ''no military need'' to do this. But why did he add the word ''military''? Is there a non-m...

Q2 GDP growth slightly above expectation, currency market remains unimpressed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2022

As reported this morning, GDP grew by 1.1% qoq, 6.5% yoy in Q2, down from 2.1% qoq, 8% yoy in Q1. This was slightly above the 6.1% yoy median expectation of Portfolio.hu's analyst poll, which obviously followed the MNB's indication in late July that its weekly activity indicator WEAI predicted 6%...

Of electrons and tax reforms
COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Petro administration submitted its tax reform proposal to Congress in August instead of October, out of sync with the usual timing. This was the first major act of the new government, which speaks volumes. Unsurprisingly, the expected yield is nowhere near the COP 50 trillion (3.5% of GDP, us...

Election campaigns begin, Minister Alexandre de Moraes assumes the presidency of the TSE, and the working group on the ICMS issue meets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro will have some difficulties ahead. According to the polls, he is behind his main opponent, former President Lula, and has the highest rate of rejection among the candidates. Both Bolsonaro and Lula are expected to attend the inauguration ceremony at the TSE. Their partici...

Robust growth supports a 0.75% hike next week
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2022

GDP Growth in Q2 surprised on the upside reaching 6.8% saar (average market consensus was 2.4%, Leader: 3.9%). GDP excluding the volatile import tax factor increased by a more moderate 5.0%. Private consumption surprised strongly with 10.4% growth (mostly consumption of durables), investments wer...

Five Europeans on trial for their lives in East Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2022

On August 15 the pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk began to try a Croat, a Swede and three Britons. They have been charged with being mercenaries and face the death penalty if convicted. Three foreigners have already been sentenced to death for being mercenaries in Donetsk. So far no one has been exe...

Following several months of downward surprises, July corrects upwards
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

July’s CPI surprises sharply on the upside Inflation in July increased by 1.1% m/m and 5.2% y/y, up from 4.4% past month. Expectations were for an index of 0.6%-0.7% m/m; we were expecting 0.7%. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy items and fresh produce) increased by 4.7% y/y (up from 4.1%)...

Politics: State of Mexico elections are key to the 2024 presidential race
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2022

Although still 10 months away, the 2023 elections in the State of Mexico are already shaping up to be a key political battle, with nationwide implications for the 2024 elections. The importance of this gubernatorial race is not only because the State of Mexico is the country’s most populated and ...

The American Economy and the Brazilian Scenario for 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Aug 2022

To formulate scenarios for 2023, a fundamental piece of the current puzzle is the evolution of the economy in the United States. Initially, it is necessary to distinguish the effects of high-frequency movements of the S&P500 on the IBOVESPA (a large part of the recent recovery of the IBOVESPA has...

The federal budget revenues fall in July, and the budget to stay in deficit in 2H22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues fell considerably – either m-o-m or y-o-y. Usually, tax collection in July is higher than in June as some companies pay some taxes quarterly. This year, the non-oil-and-gas revenues fell in July by 21.1% and 34.3% m-o-m and y-o-y, ...

The 2022 ANC Elective Congress and Its Emerging Possible Outcomes
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

As mentioned in our previous reports, 2022 is a critical year for SA’s democratic political evolution. The governing party, The African National Congress (ANC), is heading for its all-important December 2022 National Elective Congress at which the Party’s new leadership structures and its “presid...

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