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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: A small but crucial cabinet shakeup highlights possible governability issues
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2021

In recent days President López Obrador replaced Minister of the Interior Olga Sánchez Cordero while also accepting the resignation of Julio Scherer Ibarra, the man who had served not only as presidential legal counsel but also as a de facto interior minister while also assuming many of the key ta...

Kazkahstan strikes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2021

There have been large scale strikes across the country in summer 2021. The government is nervous as the 10th anniversary of the strikes in December 2011 at Zhanozen, Kazakhstan, approaches. At that time, the police shot 100 unarmed demonstrators, at least 14 of whom died. The strikes this year ha...

GDP in the Second Quarter and Growth in 2022
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Sep 2021

The contraction of 0.1% in GDP for the second quarter of 2021 has left a carry-over of 4.9%, meaning that modest recovery in the third and fourth quarters should lead to yearly growth near our projection of 5.2%. However, the outlook for 2022 is very different. It is already possible to envision ...

​Inflation surprise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Sep 2021

The headline inflation rate unexpectedly shot up to 4.9% in August, the upper limit of the BSP’s inflation forecast for the month and higher than the 4.4% median forecast by analysts. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices rose 0.6% month-on-month, largely reflecting production shortfalls in fish...

Watching the recovery - September 2021
INDIA · Report · 07 Sep 2021

High frequency data shows that the recovery from the bottom of Wave 2 is progressing better than the recovery from the lockdown of March/April 2020. If present trends continue, we will be back to the pre-Wave-2 conditions (i.e., Jan/Feb 2021) within a month or two. There is a striking gap between...

Difficulties in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Sep 2021

Expectations are high this week due to the demonstrations in favor of the government today, September 7. The holiday will reduce legislative activity. The Income Tax bill should be sent to the Senate. In the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the focus will be on the case that deals with the demarcatio...

Increased investment activity to support economic growth in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2021

Rosstat reported that investment in production capacity increased by 11.0% and 7.3% y-o-y in 2Q21 and 1H21. In 1H20, investment was down by a mere 1.8% y-o-y, implying a steady rise of investments activity from 3Q20, not only y-o-y but q-o-q as well. Investment in residential real estate accounte...

Expectations are high this week due to the demonstrations on September 7. President Jair Bolsonaro has confirmed that he will participate in the events taking place in Brasília and São Paulo.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2021

A poll by the Atlas Intelligence Institute shows that 30% of the military policemen that were interviewed will “definitely” go to the protests. The Institute analyzed responses from 3,146 people (511 of them identified themselves as members of the military, civil or federal police) who filled out...

Turkey Covid Watch - September 6, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2021

Cases have fluctuated around a 20K levels over the past two weeks. Deaths are rather high compared to cases, and the quality of the case data is somewhat in doubt.

MTP 2022-24: Some quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2021

The government released the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2022-24 last night. On a symbolic note, the document’s old name has been restored, in what looks like an attempt to break with the two awful years of economic management under the “New Economy Programs”. A detailed table with basic macr...

​Delta watch 5 (A new experiment)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2021

Even with daily infections on a worrisome uptrend, government today decided to ease restrictions in Metro Manila, lowering the quarantine status from modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ) to general community quarantine (GCQ) beginning Wednesday. The decision follows a policy of relying m...

A rough start for the fall in foreign relations
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2021

Relations between Hungary and the Western world have not been especially friendly in recent times. Yet it quite rarely happens that the potential negative consequences could be as tangible and significant as in this fall: the government has to strike a difficult deal, against massive headwinds, w...

Autumn blues
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2021

The summer should have been a perfect opportunity for President Erdogan --and his AKP-MHP or the Republic Alliance-- to recover some lost ground in the polls. However, clumsy governance, detachment from voter concerns, and a string of natural disasters prevented the rebound. As the summer end...

Russian tech exports nearly double since 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2021

On September 1 the Moscow Higher School of Economics released data showing that Russia exported USD 4.5 billion of tech goods and services in 2020 and 2019. In 2018 such exports were only USD 1.4 billion.Russia is eager to avoid importing tech wherever possible. This is to reduce the impact of an...

Gazprom profits up in Q2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2021

On August 30 the gas giant announced that its Q2 earnings were more than 200% higher YoY. The price for natural gas has risen sharply. Net profit was USD 7 billion. The state-controlled company is also very optimistic about Q3 results when they come in. In April and June 2021 results were very go...

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