SOUTH AFRICA - Report 16 Sep 2013

This week the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve Bank meets to discuss the conduct of monetary policy. Expectations are that an announcement will be made concerning the timing and extent of the reduction of the stimulus program, also known as “quantitative easing”.Against thi...

TURKEY - Report 15 Sep 2013

Executive Summary An American military intervention in Syria is off the table, which leaves Ankara out in the cold. The milestone event in the Kurdish Peace Process is the announcement of the Reform Package during the coming week. Will PM Erdogan bite the electoral bullet and give Kurds what they...

VENEZUELA - In Brief 14 Sep 2013 2 responses

Rumors about conversations between the IMF and the Venezuelan government are emerging. We don’t know if there's any basis for these rumors. However, thinking out of the box, we see both parties having incentives to engage in conversations.  For the IMF, this would be an opportunity to reestablish...

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 14 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The Central Bank’s abrupt reversal of its expansionary monetary policy, amid concerns over sharp currency depreciation and prospective inflation, unnecessarily compromised economic recovery. Those worries dominated economic policy decisionmaking, and pointed once again to risks ...

INDIA - Report 13 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryInvestment into rupee denominated debt in India has faced a cumbersome auction mechanism, in which a foreign investor must first buy the right to buy government bonds. This auction mechanism was eliminated on September 13 for government bonds. It had been eliminated for corporate...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Sep 2013

Last week the data for August on the labor and credit markets were announced. The indications on both counts are that the growth of consumption will continue being lethargic. In August the unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the seasonally adjusted series, but this does not mean the job market is g...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 12 Sep 2013

Ksenia Yudaeva, a prominent Russian economist, will oversee monetary policy as First deputy CBR governor. The position was vacant after Alexey Ulyukaev has left the post to become Minister for Economic Development in the government. Previously Ms Yudaeva was a head of head of the presidential adm...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 12 Sep 2013

Amidst greater financial market volatility and fund outflows from emerging markets, the Monetary Board of the BSP kept its overnight and special deposit account rates unchanged today.  The decision to maintain the overnight borrowing and lending rates at 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively and the SDA ra...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Sep 2013

Real retail sales in July grew 1.9% in the restricted sense and 0.6% in the augmented concept, which includes cars and construction materials (Graph 1). The respective variations over the past 12 months were 6.0% and 3.7%. One of the reasons for the surprising result was the strong sales of furni...

MEXICO - Report 12 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The most significant news last week included the surprising rate cut announced by Mexico’s central bank on Friday. Banco de Mexico lowered its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since the key rate was introduced in early 2008. The last time the ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 11 Sep 2013

On Tuesday, September 10, CNT/MDA released a new poll on the approval rating of the Dilma Rousseff administration, conducted between August 31 and September 4. Approval of her government increased from 31.1% to 38.1% (7 percentage points). The CNT poll shows that the president’s popularity has st...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 10 Sep 2013

In our Quarterly Report ("In a good place," Aug.. 8, 2013), we said that "bringing the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) fully into the fold" is a key activity for meeting a tight timetable for the peace process in Mindanao and the creation of a  Bangsamoro political entity before the end of ...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 10 Sep 2013

Figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) show that the current account balance deteriorated in the second quarter of 2013 (Q2 2013). The deficit on the current account increased from R190.9 billion in Q1 2013 to R216.2 billion in Q2 2013, partly due to weak export growth. A...

TURKEY - Report 10 Sep 2013

Today’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 4.4%, y/y, which was higher than the consensus forecast of some 3.5%, and our even softer estimate of 2.5%. Growth was driven by private consumption, government spending (notably investment) and inventory build-up, all of which turned out fairly stronger than our ...

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Sep 2013

PKK suspended the withdrawal of its guerilla force from Turkey, accusing AKP of planning a war on Kurds. Essentially, the Peace Process is dead.  AKP’s much-advertised reform package is delayed and is unlikely to satisfy even the minimum of Kurdish demands. I don't expect a return to insurgency u...