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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recovery under uncertainty
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jul 2021

The Costa Rican economy showed better than expected results in H1. Faster recovery of the country’s main trading partners helped improve exports. H1 fiscal figures were also favorable. The next 18 months will be crucial. The first review of the SBA agreement with the IMF will be in October 2021, ...

Vaccination is improving, the economy remains on a slow path to recovery, and the dialogue on public pension reform is going nowhere
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jul 2021

The total number of vaccines already shipped to the country is 3 million (for a population of 4.3 million inhabitants) and will reach 9.3 million before the end of the year (7.1 million Pfizer, 1.1 million Astra Zeneca, and 1.1 million the Covax system). This new environment may help the health a...

Russian macro: industry and construction to drive economic growth in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2021

The Russian economic recovery was broad-based in July. Economic growth gathered pace not only in industry, as was published last week, but also in other segments of the economy. The output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for GDP, a kind of a flash estimate) was up y-o-y by 12.0% in Jun...

Zelensky purges top officials
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jul 2021

On July 27 President Zelensky fired the Commander in Chief of the Military. The president said that General Khomchak had caused misunderstandings. His replacement, Valery Zalushny, is widely well regarded.Khomchak has been given a role on the National Security and Defense Council. Three other sen...

Bolsonaro should present evidence of electoral fraud in 2014 during his livestream tonight, the government’s new social program should begin in November, and Bruno Bianco appointed as Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Employment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2021

Deputy Arthur Lira believes in the current electronic system but does not see a problem with instituting an auditing system. Minister Paulo Guedes stated that the new social program will comply with the spending ceiling. Deputy Celso Sabino should present a new report on the bill that deals with ...

Inflation Report: the CBRT is playing the same game
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Jul 2021

The economics author is traveling today and will be boarding his flight shortly, so what we have below is first impressions from today’s Inflation Report. If need be, we will follow up with a more detailed analysis.First off, as we have expected, the CBRT revised the yearend forecast upward – bec...

The IMF mission to arrive in September, Kristalina Georgieva says
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jul 2021

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had a phone call with Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva yesterday on July 28. Kristalina Georgieva recognized “sound economic progress made under the IMF program” and mentioned the IMF mission arriving in September. The President Office ment...

Turkey and Azerbaijan plan to form a combined army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2021

On July 28 it was announced in the Turkish Parliament that the two neighbors are creating a joint army. A joint military drill is currently ongoing.The two countries speak languages that are almost identical. They have been cooperating closely for 30 years but now they intend to further expand th...

Torpedo
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2021

It’s a puzzle why the government decided to arrest lawmaker Freddy Guevara and harass other Popular Will party (VP) leaders. His actions torpedoed preparations for government–opposition talks to be mediated by Norway. Perhaps the torpedo was aimed at dividing the opposition. Or the government...

Bolsonaro’s statements about the new Bolsa Familia program worry the market, Ciro Nogueira should take office as Chief of Staff today or tomorrow, and Dep. Celso Sabino should submit his report on the income tax bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2021

According to the government, Bolsonaro is not actually planning on changing the Bolsa Familia program through a constitutional amendment. Ciro Nogueira’s entry into the government should improve its relationship with Congress and especially the Senate. The broader tax reform PEC in the Senate is ...

Economics: Inflation pressures continue to mount
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2021

Last week’s inflation results for the first half of July showed 12-month consumer inflation at 5.75%, with its core component lagging the headline rate at 4.64%, while non core inflation surged ahead once again at 9.24%. The core component was led higher by a roughly 6% increase in food prices, w...

China’s education crackdown – How far will this go?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jul 2021

The new regulatory crackdown on the educational sector in China was a surprising move by China. New Oriental Education’s shares plunged 17.5% on the news. What really is a shock is how small the companies are in this sector – EDU has a market cap of just $6.6 billion. What is going on and how far...

Economic recovery in times of political uncertainty
CHILE · Report · 27 Jul 2021

After falling for two consecutive months, in May the monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted IMACEC was 2.6%, its largest since September 2020. The economy completely reversed the negative shocks of March and April. The detail by sectors shows diverging movements, underscoring the relevance ...

MNB: Long-term collateralised loans to banks discontinued from today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

MNB vice governor Virág has just spoken on the Bank's YouTube channel. His main points were:- Today's 30 bps base rate increase implies that the 1-week deposit rate will go up by the same amount, i.e. the whole of the rate hike will be made effective. - From today, the MNB is not extending any mo...

Bolsonaro meets with Ciro Nogueira to discuss his role as Chief of Staff, the Pandemic CPI has a busy schedule for next week and the rapporteur of the income tax bill is considering including a tax exemption for companies earing less that R$ 4.8 million
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2021

Ciro Nogueira’s appointment is facing some resistance from Congress and the government. Bolsonaro has reiterated the Centrão’s important role in passing bills. Dep. Luiz Miranda provides a testimony to the Federal Police on the corruption scheme involving the purchase of the Covaxin vaccines. Mem...

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