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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

April data reflects a much smaller lockdown effect than last year
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2021 · 1 response

Most recent Covid news has been just excellent. In spite of the recent slowdown of vaccination, reopening measures have not led to any pickup in the epidemic. On the contrary, Covid figures continue to improve. New variants of the virus have not had any tangible impact so far. The next question w...

Russia claims to have fired warning shots at UK warship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

On June 23 Moscow said one of its warships and jets in the Black Sea fired to scare off the Royal Naval vessel because it was threatening the entrance to a naval base. The plane supposedly dropped four bombs on the path of the ship after a Russian warship had fired warning shots near HMS Defender...

Government should submit bill that changes income tax and creates a new tax on profits and dividends, Roberto Campos Neto and Gilmar Mendes meet to discuss the law that grants the Central Bank autonomy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2021

President of the House Arthur Lira should appoint rapporteurs for the income tax bill and the goods and services (CBS) bill. The Senate approved the provisional measure that increases the CSLL for banks. The STF should conclude voting on the Central Bank law by August 2.

Yet more sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2021

On June 21 the EU announced a new round of sanctions on President Lukashenka and his family. 78 people and 8 organizations are on the sanctions list. Politicians, judges, prosecutors and others are on the list. The sanctions mean asset freezes and visa bans. Arms sales are also to be limited.The ...

Russian macro: exchange rate in a comfort zone to favor growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jun 2021

Russian imports continued to soar in April – both in absolute and y-o-y terms. They reached $26.3 bln that month, a level not seen since mid-2014 (an increase of 49.4% y-o-y). In 2Q20 imports contracted relatively moderately (by 13.0% y-o-y) compared with the increase seen in April and the expect...

The MNB met interest rate expectations today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2021

Today, the MNB delivered on its promises:- They raised the base rate by 30 bps to 0.9%, the first hike for nearly ten years. This exactly met analyst expectation.- The 1-week deposit rate will go to 0.9% as well, meaning an effective rate hike of 15 bps. The base rate is becoming the effective st...

Provisonal measure on the privatization of Eletrobras approved in the House, Dep. Osmar Terra testifies in the COVID CPI, and President of the House Arthur Lira gave an interview to O Globo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2021

President Bolsonaro has 15 days after receiving the provisional measure on Eletrobras to sanction or veto the text. The government should submit a provisional measure to Congress on the water crisis. Minister Ricardo Lewandowski voted in favor of the unconstitutionality of the law that grants the...

​KUWAIT: Budget passes despite opposition resistance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jun 2021

The National Assembly today narrowly passed the 2021/2 budget, despite the abstention of most MPs. The opposition has suggested that the Assembly might not be put into recess for the summer, during which the government could pass a debt law and fiscal reforms by decree. We think the reforms, alth...

Russia and Myanmar agree more cooperation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2021

On June 21 according to the Russian Security Council, the head of Myanmar's military government said that he wanted to strengthen links with Russia. Junta supremo Min Aung Hlaing is in Moscow for a 3 day conference. This is his second trip abroad since he took power.The Russian Security Council C...

Contradictory messages on when to start the discussion of the fiscal pact
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

Yesterday in an interview the Ministry of the Presidency, Lisandro Macarrulla, pointed out that the discussion of the fiscal pact would begin "now" and that its application would be in January 2022. However, today in a meeting in the National Palace with representatives of the business, labor and...

President Abinader creates a Working Group for the International Price Crisis
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

This morning President Abinader summoned businessmen and representatives of the labor, economic and social sectors to the formation of a Working Group for the International Price Crisis. The attendees made the commitment to participate in the dialogue and within 10 days they must submit proposals...

Greater Growth, Lower Risk and Interest Rates Higher Than the Neutral Level
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 21 Jun 2021

We project growth of 5.2% in 2021, and 2% in 2022, near potential growth. In 2021, the persistence of a weak labor market will prevent significant expansion of household consumption, and the fiscal constraint will prevent a greater contribution from government consumption. With investments still ...

Economics: Investment recovery remains very slow and uneven
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2021

Reactivating investment is key to the recovery of the Mexican economy following the decline observed since the second half of 2018, and especially during the pandemic. The determining factors driving such a renewed growth in investment would be certainty, confidence, consumption reactivation, and...

Politics: Organized crime’s significant violent intervention in the June 6 mid-term elections
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2021

Organized crime, specifically drug cartels, has increased its control over state and municipal governments. This played out in the recently concluded June 6 mid-term elections. There were 91 killings of candidates and their staff during the campaign, along with 1,000 violent attacks on Election D...

Movement in the political center and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2021

This week, the government will send Congress a bill that modifies income taxes for individuals and companies, aside from the taxation of profits and dividends. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Eletrobras provisional measure. The Senate could vote on the provisional measure that increase...

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