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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia's oil reserves might run out in 2080
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2021

On May 11 the Ministry of Natural Resources said that the country's oil reserves will last until 2080. However, gas will last until 2124. There might be more hyrdocarbons than this but they have not been found.Prospecting in the Arctic could lead to more finds. Rosneft is exploring there. A USD 1...

Erratic control
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2021

Inflation sped up sharply in April, to 27 percent month-on-month from 11 percent in March. It was driven up primarily by sharp dollar strengthening in bolivar terms (+36 percent) despite slow public spending and money supply. We think that dollar prices were responding to the March surge in publi...

CPI-inflation up sharply, exceeds analyst expectations in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 May 2021

This morning, April CPI-inflation was reported at 0.8% mom, 5.1% yoy, the latter sharply up from 3.7% yoy in March. The headline rate was pushed up very substantially by rising fuel prices, which went up by 39.2% yoy in April after +17.7% yoy, despite a 1.2% mom decrease in the month, i.e. essent...

Environmental licensing bill set for a vote in the Lower House, and more testimony in the Covid CPI in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2021

​Today, the Lower House votes on a bill that deals with environmental licensing, which is especially important for the infrastructure sector. The bill defines the rules businesses must follow when conducting environmental projects, for example, deadlines, environmental impact studies, analysis pr...

China’s Credit Guarantee Funds and risk
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 May 2021

China is pursuing two contradictory goals simultaneously. One calls for throttling back credit to risky parts of the financial system. The second is the creation of a default mechanism for ailing companies that in some cases includes state assistance. The policies are designed to continue to inje...

Q1 GDP down by 4.2%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 May 2021

The on the ground feedback we were getting of the economy’s performance leading up to today’s GDP announcement had suggested a more buoyant economy than the reported 4.2% year on year (yoy) contraction. The headline number implies that GDP grew by only 0.3% quarter on quarter, or an annualized ra...

Politics: The outgoing Congress - what it achieved and what to expect
MEXICO · Report · 10 May 2021

The first round of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s three years of changes to the country’s laws and constitution ended on April 30, as the outgoing Chamber of Deputies assuredly will never meet again, and the full Congress convenes on September 1. The initial package of reforms was far-re...

Economics: Continuing weakness at Pemex and CFE could further squeeze public finance
MEXICO · Report · 10 May 2021

Roughly a month ago Pemex unfurled a revised Business Plan for the coming years that significantly scaled back production targets except when it comes to its forced-yet-troubled march to make Mexico self-sufficient in the refining of petroleum products. Strikingly, the text and other management s...

Initial assessment of the Covid CPI and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2021

Important issues such as environmental licensing and a bill on the electricity sector are on the agenda in the Lower House. The Senate may vote on blocking price increases for medication and on Pronampe. The Covid CPI proceeds with testimony throughout the week. Demonstrations in support of the g...

The government is betting on total openness; timing for fiscal pact decisions tightens
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 10 May 2021

With the arrival of 2 million vaccines from China, and the incorporation of the whole population over the age of 18 into the vaccination program, the government seeks to create conditions to proceed with the complete opening of the economy. In fact, in April the restriction on mobility has been r...

Inflation makes things go up and down
UKRAINE · Report · 10 May 2021

Inflation has become the main issue in 2021, and does not bode well for Ukraine’s growth prospects: industrial output fell in Q1, despite soaring export prices. However, galloping prices reduced pressure on fiscal accounts, adding extra inflationary revenues. What’s more, soaring resource prices,...

Monetary Policy: Continuation of the “Partial Adjustment” Cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 May 2021

Last week, the COPOM raised the SELIC rate by 75 basis points and promised (with some reservations) an adjustment of equal magnitude at the meeting in June. With respect to the overall size of the cycle, however, it continued affirming that it will pursue a “partial adjustment”. Since its task wi...

Turkey Covid Watch - May 10, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2021

Cases continued to decline this week and are now at less than one third of their peak three weeks ago. Serious and critically ill patients are on the decline. The end of lockdown on May 17 is nearing, and “normalization measures” - to include the reopening of schools - are expected to be announce...

More testimony in the Covid CPI set for this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2021

The COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate has scheduled several testimonies for this week. The president of the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (Anvisa), Antonio Barra Torres, should testify on Tuesday, former Secretary of Communication, Fabio Wajngarten, on Wednesday, a...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong
ISRAEL · Report · 10 May 2021

Unofficial bond tapering by the BoI is apparent, while FX intervention increased sharply in April. Economic indicators remain robust, especially business sector surveys and consumer confidence. The cumulative fiscal deficit in the last 12 months to April declined to 11.2% on strong tax revenues d...

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