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Country Insights

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Policy Environment Shifting For The Better
INDIA - Report 04 Sep 2013
In recent months, a series of special reports have sketched the failures of economic policy formulation including at the Ministry of Finance and RBI. These failures have been particularly disappointing given that when P. Chidambaram returned to MoF, a sharp increase in competence was expected. Wi...

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President's Popularity Crumbles
COLOMBIA - In Brief 04 Sep 2013 2 responses
Gallup released its most recent opinion poll and President Santos' popularity fell from 46% to 21%. Even though the poll was carried out last week when protests and strikes had reached a climax and before the President took bold moves to quell unjustified violence, his political future is riding ...

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Increased Risks and a Depreciating Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Sep 2013
Executive Summary In response to the 2008 crisis, many countries abandoned the precepts of prudence and adopted highly expansionary fiscal policies along with a strong dose of monetary accommodation. This brought higher inflation and current account deficits, the latter of which became too large ...

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A Recovery Yet To Come
MEXICO - Report 03 Sep 2013
Economic Panorama The most significant piece of economic news in August was the weakness of GDP growth during the second quarter. The authorities reported that the economy expanded a mere 1.5% compared to the same April through June period of the previous year. Officials had projected that GDP ha...

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Industrial Production: Still on a Rollercoaster
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Sep 2013
Industrial production fell 2.0% in August, giving back nearly all the gain in July (2.1%) and continuing the extremely volatile pattern of recent months (Graph 1). The decline in the month was so steep that it brought the quarterly moving average into negative territory (-0.7%) for the first time...

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15 Crucial Days
MEXICO - Report 03 Sep 2013
Executive Summary Over the past week dissident members of the National Teachers’ Union, gathered in what is known as the “Coordinadora” or CNTE, have grown increasingly audacious in their efforts to derail the last of the education reform bills pending before Congress. After having succeeded last...

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Headline Down, Core UP
TURKEY - Report 03 Sep 2013
Today’s consumer price data came in exactly in line with the market consensus, shrinking modestly by 0.1%, on the back of a retreat in food prices, also as expected.The 12-month rate hence dropped to 8.2% from 8.9% a month earlier. The producer price inflation also eased to 6.4% from 6.6% in July...

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GDP in the Second Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Sep 2013
Brazil’s GDP growth in the second quarter exceeded all projections. At 1.5% (6.0% in annual terms – Graph 1), it was the strongest since the first quarter of 2010, changing the growth estimates for 2013. Among the various surprising results is the growth in the service sector, about which there i...

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Political Insights: Week of September 2
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 02 Sep 2013
The people should return to the streets on September 7 to protest in the main cities throughout the country.Regarding the economy, we highlight the release of inflation data for August. Electoral reform, outsourcing and the Budget Guidelines Law are on the congressional agenda. Main topics on the...

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PMI Gains Momentum
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 02 Sep 2013
The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers’ index (PMI) climbed from 52.2 points in July to 56.5 points in August 2013. This outcome paints an encouraging picture for manufacturing conditions in South Africa and correlates positively with recent gross domestic product figures.However, despite si...

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Budget Deficit Reaches 2% of GDP just for 7M 2013
UKRAINE - In Brief 01 Sep 2013
Through January-July 2013 the central budget deficit reached UAH 30.3 billion (2.0% of GDP) or 60% from the targeted UAH 50.6 billion deficit for 2013.  It is very unusual to see such a high fiscal deficit by the end of July.  Traditionally, the authorities used to postpone the main part of publi...

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Is Turkey’s Luck Turning?
TURKEY - Report 01 Sep 2013
Executive SummaryOur base-case fall/winter scenario on the political side entails very daunting challenges for the AKP administration, which may reverse its more than a decade old streak of good luck. Assuming President Obama does strike Syrian targets but fails to dislodge Assad, the Shia Axis c...

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Waiting for Consumption to Decelerate
CHILE - Report 30 Aug 2013
Executive Summary During the second quarter of 2013 the Chilean economy grew 4.1 percent yoy, accumulating a 4.3 percent increase in the first half of 2013. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased 0.5 percent in 2013Q2 with respect to the previous quarter, which confirm the signs of deceleration that e...

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Earning Less, Spending More
PANAMA - Report 30 Aug 2013
Executive Summary Activity cooled slightly in May, with the Monthly Economic Activity Index up 4.3% y/y, and 6.3% for the first five months of 2013. Both results were a far cry from the days of 10% growth. The most dynamic sectors over the past year were fishing, construction, mining, transport/s...

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Another Brick in the Wall
ARGENTINA - Forecast 30 Aug 2013
Executive SummaryAmid the collateral damage from a new judicial defeat in the NY courts, this report presents our forecasts for 2013 and 2014. Our main assumption is that the government will try to navigate until 2015 without making the necessary adjustments while, at the same time, avoiding sign...