Country Insights

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Inflation: No Change in the Trajectory
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 23 Jun 2014
The IPCA-15 for June rose 0.47%, virtually the same as the May IPCA (0.46%). It was also higher than the consensus forecast, which was for further deceleration. Inflation over the past 12 months is now 6.41% and it’s just a question of time before it creeps above the upper limit of the target int...

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Growing Reliance on Petrocaribe for Financing
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 23 Jun 2014
Evidence collected for this report suggests that the Dominican Republic is vulnerable to significant changes in the financial conditions in which Venezuela sales oil and derivates through the Petrocaribe program. Together with the United States, Venezuela is the largest oil provider to the DR (ar...

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Political Insights: Week of June 23
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 23 Jun 2014
This will be a crucial week for the October elections, as several party conventions are scheduled for the coming days. The deadline for parties to determine candidates and coalitions is June 30. The PSB formalizes the presidential candidacy of Eduardo Campos this Saturday, June 28. Government Eva...

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A Hole in the Pocket
CHILE - Report 23 Jun 2014
Executive Summary It continues to be chilly in Chile. Growth is increasingly meager and there are no signs of a prompt recovery. To the fall in investment we now can add a deceleration of consumption. Apparently investment has hit bottom, but there are clear signs that consumption is still dec...

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What To Expect in the Post-Giordani Era
VENEZUELA - In Brief 22 Jun 2014
Jorge Giordani’s departure was a decision made by the powers that be. The letter he published in the chavista website Aporrea [1] was the means he chose to expose the discomfort and the ins and outs of the government’s decision making process. These events strengthen Nicolás Maduro and the reform...

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Weekly Tracker: June 22-28
TURKEY - Report 22 Jun 2014
Executive Summary HDP and AKP should reveal their respective candidates for the presidential race this week.A rebellion in CHP against the nomination of Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu died down quickly, meaning there will be only three contestants.It is too early to comment on CHP-MHP candidate Ihsanog...

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Bonds Policy will Ease Debt Risk
CHINA - Report 20 Jun 2014
Executive Summary Fixed asset investment growth continues to decline, rising 17% in real terms in May, while industrial output growth dipped 1 p.p. y/y from 2013, to 8.8%. Yet the general trend is relatively stable this year. The low new project investment growth rate of 12.5% sheds light on t...

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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 20 Jun 2014
CNI/Ibope: Dilma leads; candidate rejection increases Government Evaluation On Thursday, June 19, a CNI/Ibope poll on the presidential succession and evaluation of the Dilma Rousseff administration, conducted June 13-15, was released.Compared to the June 4-7 poll (the Ibope poll contracted by the...

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Down with the Monarchy
COLOMBIA - Report 20 Jun 2014
Executive SummaryThough he will remain a powerful force in forthcoming regional elections, and carry the banner of the opposition in an eventual referendum on a peace agreement, for Alvaro Uribe Santos’ reelection signals the beginning of the end of a political era. A second important message fro...

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The Current Account Deficit Narrows In 2014 Q1
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 Jun 2014
According to official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the current account balance registered a deficit of R161 billion in 2014 Q1 compared to a shortfall of R179 billion in the previous quarter. As shown in Graph 1, the decrease in South Africa’s current account d...

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President Zuma’s State of Nation Address
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 18 Jun 2014
As expected, President Zuma delivered the first State of Nation Address of his second term in office with sharp focus on the economy, carefully navigating all the tough and thorny issues. President Zuma pronounced that the “second phase of the revolution” has begun. In the African National Congre...

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Meet the “Manchurian Candidate”: Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu
TURKEY - In Brief 18 Jun 2014
Quite unexpectedly, Monday’s CHP-MHP summit produced a joint candidate, called the “common roof” candidate in Turkish vernacular. Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu, the former Secretary General of Organization of Islamic Cooperation will probably represent the main stream opposition in the 10-24 August pr...

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Swapping out of US jurisdiction
ARGENTINA - In Brief 17 Jun 2014
During today’s press conference, Economic Minister Kicillof, reinforced the comments made last night by president Cristina Fernádez de Kirchner, in the sense that Argentina cannot honor the debt obligations that emerge from the Griesa’s rulings (because of the consequences it has on the remaining...

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What’s At Stake in the 2015 Elections
MEXICO - Report 17 Jun 2014
Executive Summary By August all political parties will begin to tailor their every pronouncement, legislative vote and discourse with an eye toward what is most likely to attract support and minimize the risk of alienating voters ahead of the 2015 elections. There will be a lot at stake next June...

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Official Economic Recovery Strategy
MEXICO - Report 17 Jun 2014
Executive Summary In recent weeks a number of indicators have pointed to a slower economic recovery than anticipated at the start of the year. That underperformance suggests that the government’s efforts to kick-start the economy through increased public spending has yet to produce the desired re...