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Russian telecoms suffering from sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022

Russian mobile phone networks are suffering from their heavy dependence on Western components. Maintenance and upgrades are increasingly problematic. Russia buys parts from Nokia and Ericsson as well as Chinese providers Huawei and ZTE for wireless network hardware and software. Nokia and Ericsso...

Russian civil aviation falling drastically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022

On April 25 Moscow Vnukovo Airport furloughed many staff. A third of airport staff have been told they might be made redundant. Another Moscow airport has already done so. Passenger numbers have fallen dramatically in the last 2 months.Vnukovo Airport's traffic was down 19% Y o Y in April 2022. I...

Kazakhstan Macro: the budget is in surplus in 1Q22 as revenues exceed the plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022

The consolidated budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan posted a surplus in 1Q22, as the country’s finance ministry reported. This budget is a sum of the state budget and the National fund net of transfer from the latter to the former (the state budget is an aggregate of the republican and local bu...

US Secretary of State visits Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022

On April 24 Anthony Blinken and the US Secretary of Defense visited Zelensky. The US renewed its pledge of unstinting support and said that Ukraine can win if given the right weapons. The US said that its goal is to enfeeble Russia that Russia cannot threaten Eastern Europe again. The US said it ...

A few specifics from the MNB press conference
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022

A press conference indeed followed the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting of April 26. Governor Matolcsy and vice governor Virág spoke, and there was no room given to questions. Beyond generalities, a few specifics appear to be notable:1. Governor Matolcsy confirmed that the MNB is s...

MNB base rate up by 100 bps, to 5.4% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022

The Monetary Council raised the base rate by more than we expected, but its action corresponded to the median expectation of private sector analysts. By this move, the interest rate corridor rose by 100 bps as well, to 5.4-8.4%, increasing the upward potential for the 1-week deposit rate, the eff...

The government’s economic measures may be positive for Bolsonaro’s popularity, the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and Bolsonaro stated he would not comply with the STF decision if it approves the revision of indigenous lands demarcation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2022

Yesterday, an FSB/BTG Pactual poll showed that the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro dropped from 14% to 9% from March to April. The government has started the early payment of the 13th salary installment for INSS retirees and pensioners. The likelihood that the vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisiona...

​Opposition summit:Good news, bad news
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2022

Six opposition leaders constituting the Nation Alliance gathered Sunday night to debate how to mitigate the big-party bias of the amendments to the electoral law, as well as the previously proposed formation of “standing committees” to study the possibility of writing a coalition protocol.I write...

The Projections of the IMF for the World and Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Apr 2022

The last World Economic Outlook confirmed what was expected, a weaker growth projection (in relation to that of January) for the world economy in 2022. It is increasingly clear that additional deceleration is in store for the United States due to a more intense shift of monetary policy to restric...

Economics: Inflation and depressed growth mean that recent wage hikes pose new hurdles for economy
MEXICO · Report · 25 Apr 2022

In a context of high inflation and clear signs of economic weakening, we estimate that collective bargaining wage negotiations in the coming months will be contaminated by deteriorating inflation expectations and represent an additional obstacle over the medium term to slowing the pace at which p...

Politics: Wide-ranging effects of AMLO’s failed attempt to pass electric power sector reform
MEXICO · Report · 25 Apr 2022

It became increasingly obvious in the days leading up to the Easter Sunday vote in the Chamber of Deputies that the administration’s electric power sector reform was headed for defeat as the leaders of all four opposition congressional caucuses, with their 223 deputies, made it clear they would s...

Ukraine seems to be launching missiles into Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2022

On April 25 a fire at a Bryansk civilian oil depot and on oil depot at a military base appear to have been caused by Ukrainian missiles. Russia confirmed the fires but played down the suggestions that they were caused by enemy action. Bryansk is less than 100 km from Ukraine. Is it within range f...

A period of opportunity in the legislature and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2022

The conflict between Bolsonaro and the judiciary over the presidential pardon granted to Deputy Daniel Silveira will continue to cause repercussions in political and legal circles. Two new polls on the presidential elections will be published. Employees of the Federal Police will hold a demonstra...

BRI across Russia in jeopardy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2022

China intended Russia to form a vital part of the Belt and Road Initiative. China wanted railroads and roads across Russia to be upgraded. The aim was to have a fast trade route so Russia could easily export goods to the EU.Sanctions on Russia have made trade via Russia problematic. China wants t...

President Bolsonaro’s pardon of Daniel Silveira continues to have repercussions, the government and Congress discuss whether or not to vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and Eduardo Leite announces his withdrawal from the presidential election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2022

Cases have been filed in the STF against Bolsonaro’s decree. Additionally, opposition legislators have submitted a draft decree with the objective of annulling the presidential decree. Daniel Silveira is unlikely to be arrested but his ineligibility will likely remain in effect. Fearing defeat, s...

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