GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

This month’s story is about the substantial upside surprises in the latest GDP and inflation reports. These need to be looked at in the light of the upcoming election, as the Fidesz government is aiming to enjoy the positive public mood created by its heavily procyclical fiscal and income policie...

Ukraine crisis is a gas opportunity for Qatar, a diplomatic challenge for the UAE and a spur for OPEC+ tapering

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Feb 2022 · 1 response

* OPEC+ is more likely to boost volumes, particularly in May, when higher baselines come into effect for UAE, Saudi and Kuwait. * Qatar has a huge opportunity to sign long-term LNG contracts on beneficial terms. Its North Field expansion will deliver more gas than Nord Stream 2. * The UAE faces...

Politics: AMLO’s continuing missteps over “Gray house,” his worst political crisis to date

MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The scandal that first broke in late January over a luxury Houston home rented by the son and daughter-in-law of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to take a toll on AMLO's political credibility as bumbling attempts at explaining away the issue turn to what appear to be increasingly ...

Economics: First monetary policy decision of the year eases uncertainty amid heightened inflation

MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The mid-month release of the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for January showed 12-month inflation running at 7.07% alongside a continuing and especially troubling resurgence of core inflation (6.21%) that is being powered by strong gains in the goods index (7.86%). It is obvious at this po...

Bracing for change

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 22 Feb 2022

Several forthcoming changes cloud the outlook for 2022. The major change domestically is the midyear change in government that introduces some degree of policy uncertainty. The major change externally is the impending US Fed policy rate hike that raises risks for emerging markets, especially thos...

Evangelical vote targeted and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The Senate attempts to vote on fuel-related bills. At the CCJ of the Senate, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Roberto Rocha (PSDB-MA), submits his report. Minister Edson Fachin is the new president of the TSE. Four new presidential election polls will be published. This week's Talkin...

The Fiscal Situation of The States

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The past two years have witnessed a significant improvement in the fiscal situation of the subnational entities, which in 2021 had a primary surplus of 1.2% of GDP. This is partly due to structural improvements, such as the reforms of the civil service pension systems in some states. However, the...

The BoI prepares markets for imminent tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 22 Feb 2022

1. The forward guidance in the monetary statement shifted sharply, conveying the likelihood of tightening in “coming months”. 2. The various factors in the monetary statement all support tightening: inflation has accelerated, growth is robust, unemployment has declined and the Omicron wave ...

Russia recognizes occupied territories: the play comes to the end

UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

Everything develops in line with the scenario we described here. Russia recognized occupied territories of Donbas and Luhansk as independent states and deployed ‘peacekeepers’ in those territories. We see this development as a face-saving withdrawal for Kremlin. Moscow has been raising stakes thu...

The PMI declines sharply

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Feb 2022

The PMI declined in January by 4.9 points to 42.9, with both the domestic and export orders declining sharply (by over 7 points) to reflect contraction. The employment component fell by 18 points. Activity in January was influenced by the Omicron wave, but nevertheless, this sharp decline in all ...

Uzbekistan receives USD 10 million from Gulnara Karimova

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

On February 15 the government announced that it had recovered assets that it says the daughter of the late president misappropriated. The money was returned from France. Uzbekistan is working with Switzerland, the USA, France, Russia to recover more of Gulnara Karimova's assets.A multiparty trust...

Fighting intensified in East Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

On February 19 the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe recorded 1,500 breaches of the ceasefire. That is the highest number in 2021. Fighting is fiercest in Luhansk. The Ukrainian Interior Minister dived for cover when a mortar fell within 500 meters of him. Putin said the situation i...

Brazilian President visits Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

On February 16 Jair Bolsonaro visited Moscow and met Putin. The US lobbied hard for Bolsonaro not to visit Russia. Bolsonaro has been an outspoken admirer of Putin. The visit's timing is very welcome as it proves that Russia has friends far beyond its borders. However, the visit was planned month...

Culmination of the Kremlin’s staging

UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

We are approaching the culmination of the staging with Russian troops’ deployment. Russians have started evacuating civilians from occupied territories of Donbass but ordered all men of military age to stay in place. Also Russians are bringing heavy armor closer to the frontlines in Donbas. These...

Atilla Yesilada’s interview with Global Business Europe: inflation and popular sentiment, tourism, and outreach by Turkey to the GCC

TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2022 · 2 responses

We present Atilla Yesilada's February 17, 2022 interview with daily business show Global Business Europe, in which he speaks about popular sentiment in the face of high inflation, the prospects for the tourism sector from a geopolitical standpoint, and the recent trip by President Erdogan to the ...