GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The past two years have witnessed a significant improvement in the fiscal situation of the subnational entities, which in 2021 had a primary surplus of 1.2% of GDP. This is partly due to structural improvements, such as the reforms of the civil service pension systems in some states. However, the...

The BoI prepares markets for imminent tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 22 Feb 2022

1. The forward guidance in the monetary statement shifted sharply, conveying the likelihood of tightening in “coming months”. 2. The various factors in the monetary statement all support tightening: inflation has accelerated, growth is robust, unemployment has declined and the Omicron wave ...

Russia recognizes occupied territories: the play comes to the end

UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

Everything develops in line with the scenario we described here. Russia recognized occupied territories of Donbas and Luhansk as independent states and deployed ‘peacekeepers’ in those territories. We see this development as a face-saving withdrawal for Kremlin. Moscow has been raising stakes thu...

The PMI declines sharply

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Feb 2022

The PMI declined in January by 4.9 points to 42.9, with both the domestic and export orders declining sharply (by over 7 points) to reflect contraction. The employment component fell by 18 points. Activity in January was influenced by the Omicron wave, but nevertheless, this sharp decline in all ...

Uzbekistan receives USD 10 million from Gulnara Karimova

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

On February 15 the government announced that it had recovered assets that it says the daughter of the late president misappropriated. The money was returned from France. Uzbekistan is working with Switzerland, the USA, France, Russia to recover more of Gulnara Karimova's assets.A multiparty trust...

Fighting intensified in East Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

On February 19 the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe recorded 1,500 breaches of the ceasefire. That is the highest number in 2021. Fighting is fiercest in Luhansk. The Ukrainian Interior Minister dived for cover when a mortar fell within 500 meters of him. Putin said the situation i...

Brazilian President visits Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

On February 16 Jair Bolsonaro visited Moscow and met Putin. The US lobbied hard for Bolsonaro not to visit Russia. Bolsonaro has been an outspoken admirer of Putin. The visit's timing is very welcome as it proves that Russia has friends far beyond its borders. However, the visit was planned month...

Culmination of the Kremlin’s staging

UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

We are approaching the culmination of the staging with Russian troops’ deployment. Russians have started evacuating civilians from occupied territories of Donbass but ordered all men of military age to stay in place. Also Russians are bringing heavy armor closer to the frontlines in Donbas. These...

Atilla Yesilada’s interview with Global Business Europe: inflation and popular sentiment, tourism, and outreach by Turkey to the GCC

TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2022 · 2 responses

We present Atilla Yesilada's February 17, 2022 interview with daily business show Global Business Europe, in which he speaks about popular sentiment in the face of high inflation, the prospects for the tourism sector from a geopolitical standpoint, and the recent trip by President Erdogan to the ...

GDP up by 4.7% in 2021

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2022

The Russian GDP reached nearly R130.1 trln in 2021 and was up by 4.7%. These numbers are higher than was expected earlier, however, permanent upward revisions of selected historical data during the year prompted that surprises from Rosstat could not be ruled out. Still, the currently available qu...

The president of the Central Bank meets with union representatives to discuss the salary raise issue, the government may announce its new leader in the Senate, and two new polls will be published next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2022

Roberto Campos Neto first met with union representatives on February 3, when they stated they would go on strike on March 9. President Jair Bolsonaro said he will decide on the issue by May, but hinted that all raises might have to wait until next year to avoid general discontent in the civil ser...

Shelling in Ukraine as possible provocations loom

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2022

On February 17 Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels shelled each other in Eastern Ukraine. The Donetsk People's Republic stated that shelling had intensified dramatically. Kyiv accused rebels of shelling a kindergarten.The Kremlin called on Western countries to rein in Ukraine. On February 15 Putin sai...

1-week depo rate unchanged at 4.3% today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2022

This note is just to keep things in order. The 1-week depo rate (= the effective sterilisation rate) was kept by the MNB unchanged at 4.3% for today's tender. This is no great story, as they said last month that they would raise the depo rate only once a month from there onwards, ideally right on...

Hope for the best, prepare for the best

TURKEY · Report · 17 Feb 2022

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% (simple), as expected. There is little change in the statement (link here), other than a stronger emphasis on the “liraization” strategy, introduced earlier, and a new sentence on the “significance” of “extending long-term Turkish lira investment...

The vote on the fuel bills was postponed to next week, Bolsonaro criticized the STF once again, and the STF should decide whether to maintain the restrictions on party advertisements in print and online newspapers

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Feb 2022

The bill that deals with the ICMS, and PL 1472, which creates a Fuel Price Stabilization Fund and institutes an export tax on crude oil, is expected to be approved next week. The fuel price issue is putting pressure on several municipalities because of rising bus fares. President Bolsonaro stated...