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Stringent Western sanctions are causing Russian businesses to move to the Caucasian former Soviet republic. Most people in Armenia can speak fluent Russian and the country is very friendly with Moscow. Russians have visa free entry to Armenia. Armenia is also a transit country for flying to the E...

The South African economy rebounded strongly in 2021

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2022

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) today indicate that South Africa’s economy grew positively in the final quarter of 2021 following its contraction during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 1.2% q/q, an indication...

Zelensky open to compromise

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2022 · 2 responses

The Ukrainian President said he is prepared to consider recognizing Crimea as Russian and independence for the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics, he said on March 7. However, he rejected ultimatums. Moscow said it would instantly end the war if Ukraine agreed to its demands. This includes neutrality ...

The fuel issue remains on the agenda, Bolsonaro announces a new program aimed at helping women, and a demonstration is being called against the government’s environmental policies

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2022

At 3 p.m., a meeting has been scheduled between Ciro Nogueira, Paulo Guedes, Bento Albuquerque, Roberto Campos Neto, and Joaquim Silva e Luna to discuss the fuel issue. The political wing of the government is concerned that the increase in the price of oil due to the war in Ukraine will be passed...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: The point of no return is reached

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Mar 2022

It looks as though the pandemic has become less of an issue as Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell to below 70K on March 8 from around 200K a month before. People almost stopped getting vaccinated, and the relative unimportance of pandemic-related issues became even more vivid for ordinar...

The MNB will need more robust action, the government is doing what it can

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2022

With the forint at EURHUF 395-400 today and down by 10% since the start of the war, it looks like the MNB will have to intensify tightening efforts this week. Unless the ECB provides extra help to the MNB to protect the forint, which may be wishful thinking on our part, the sterilisation rate wil...

Unintended consequences galore

TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2022

The politics author hereby serves notice that he temporarily suspended all election scenarios, be they early, late or never. Why? Please look inside… Many historians call the Ukraine War the gateway to the second Cold War, which may be a bit premature, but it is certainly having long-term spil...

Georgia and Moldova apply for EU membership

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2022

On March 3 two former Soviet republics submitted their applications. They have been candidates for EU membership for years. They are both worried about Russian encroachment. There are Russian troops in both Moldova and Georgia against the wishes of the government of those countries. Moscow says i...

Yet more sanctions on Russia as Putin threatens to end Ukrainian statehood

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2022

On March 5 Putin said that if Ukraine continues to resist he might end its independence and that would be all Ukraine's fault. Until now Putin's goals were regime change and the annihilation of the Ukrainian Military. Reintegrating Ukraine had not been an objective. This objective is seen by pund...

More sanctions Russia as Moscow cracks down on the media

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2022

On March 5 Singapore announced it was restricting Russian banks access to its market. There will be export controls on items going to Russia and restrictions on cryptocurrencies trading with Russia. Singaporean finance will be prohibited from doing anything that might support the Russian Central ...

No light at the end of the tunnel

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2022 · 1 response

At this stage, it is hard, if not impossible, to envisage more or less accurately what may happen this year with the Russian economy, as even while writing a relatively short note, the news keeps coming one after another. A growing number of foreign companies suspend their trade operations with R...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ sticks with taper, PMIs rebound, Sharjah’s budget looks tight

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Mar 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states voted yes in the UN General Assembly Ukraine resolution, although UAE earlier abstained at the Security Council. * Qatar, Saudi and UAE all had calls with Putin and/or Zelenskyy, with talk of mediating. * OPEC...

Forint weakening continues, the MNB spoke again today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Mar 2022

Life has quickly stepped over our wish that yesterday's interest rate hike by the MNB should stabilise the EURHUF exchange rate for more than one afternoon. The forint fell to EURHUF 386-387 today, before correcting back slightly, by just one unit, when the MNB stepped in with a verbal interventi...

What can we expect from the Two Sessions?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Mar 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Tomorrow the Two Sessions will begin, during which Beijing will set targets and objectives for policies involving the economy, the military, trade, diplomacy, the environment and more. As part of the meeting Beijing will probably announce the G...

President Bolsonaro announces economic measures, the Senate should vote on bills related to fuel prices next week, and the PDT, MDB and União Brasil will start airing their advertisements

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2022

During his weekly livestream, Bolsonaro announced that the water scarcity fee will end in April. Among the possible measures to stimulate the economy are allowing access to FGTS resources so that people can pay off their debts, as well as the issuing of credit for companies in an estimated value ...