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Country Insights

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Policy Rate Hike?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 17 Jun 2014
These days, reports of price increases from rice, sugar and garlic to oil and transport fares have become daily fare in the local newspapers. Receiving the most attention is the nation’s staple food and CPI heavyweight, rice, which has been the target of government’s anti-smuggling efforts and wh...

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​A Presidential stance against Moral Hazard
ARGENTINA - In Brief 16 Jun 2014
As might have been expected, at least from a Game Theory point of view, tonight’s presidential speech was not very precise regarding the future steps the government is going to take, after earlier today’s confirmation that the US Supreme Court was not going to take Argentina’s appeal. In her spee...

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US Supreme Court rejects Argentine Case
ARGENTINA - In Brief 16 Jun 2014
Without further consultations, the US Supreme Court announced today that it will not consider Argentina’s appeal against the rulings of judge Griesa in favor of Holdouts. Even though Argentina is expected to request a rehearing of the case, the chances that the Supreme Court changes its mind are ...

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Losing Hope about Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Jun 2014
Since taking office, the current government has been consistently promising a return to vigorous growth, but these promises have never been realized. At the start of the Rousseff administration, the promise was for growth of at least 4%, and this was the consensus projection of the market as refl...

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Aggravation of Imbalances or Pursuit of Reforms?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 16 Jun 2014
Executive Summary The scenario for the rest of 2014 has little room for uncertainties, but the picture is more complicated for 2015. In preparing the projections of this Quarterly Outlook we have assumed that President Rousseff will be reelected and will continue the current economic policy re...

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Political Insights: Week of June 16
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Jun 2014
A quiet week in Congress:On Tuesday, because of the national team’s game against Mexico, federal civil servants will be released from work at 12:30pm.Thursday is a national holiday (Corpus Christi).A new presidential poll by CNI/Ibope may be released on Friday. Dilma’s decree on popular participa...

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Weekly Tracker: June 15-21
TURKEY - Report 15 Jun 2014
Executive Summary The sudden emergence of the ISIS as a major and probably permanent regional actor creates too many non-linearities in politics, economy and markets to be untangled at once.We initiate our analysis with a cautiously pessimistic short-term scenario. ISIS will keep Mosul, but the c...

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Ukraine to sue Russia on gas issue: Cabinet ordered to prepare for ‘gas war’
UKRAINE - In Brief 13 Jun 2014
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, prime-minister of Ukraine, ordered the Cabinet to get prepared for gas supplies' cutoff starting Monday, he wrote on his Facebook page today. The authorities finally start a trial with Gazprom at the Stockholm Arbitration Court over the gas contract. It is for the first time in...

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Fiscal Policy is Becoming the Critical Factor
HUNGARY - Report 12 Jun 2014
Executive Summary The new government cabinet was sworn in in early June, but it has brought about little change in policy content if any. The new cabinet has failed to present a program and, breaking with traditions, has said that it does not even intend to publish one. So as PM Orbán said before...

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“Voto-finish”?
COLOMBIA - Report 12 Jun 2014
The presidential race in Colombia is so close that the most frequent adjective used to describe it is “voto-finish.” There are polls supporting a likely win for either of the two candidates. The crucial issues since the first round have been:1.Support from losing first-round candidates to the rem...

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EEU Benefits Will Materialize over the Long Term
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 12 Jun 2014
Executive Summary Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus signed an agreement on May 29th to create a Eurasian Economic Union. The new union, based on the Customs Union, will take effect January 1, 2015. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are also expected to join. The EEU will create a market that will account for ...

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ISIS update: When tail-risk becomes clear and present danger
TURKEY - In Brief 11 Jun 2014
The ISIS Blitzkrieg in Iraq swept army and police forces aside rapidly, adding the oil town Beiji and Saddam’s birthplace of Tikrit to the list of terror organization’s conquests. Total havoc reigns in the ISIS-affected areas, with half a million Iraqis reported to be on the run. Much of what hea...

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peace talks with ELN might be essential to decide next Sunday's results
COLOMBIA - In Brief 11 Jun 2014
Yesterday, through a press release, the Government and the National Liberation Army (ELN, for its acronym in Spanish) announced that joint peace talks have formally started, after an exploratory phase that started last year (http://wsp.presidencia.gov.co/Prensa/2014/Junio/Pa...). The ELN was crea...

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Fiscal Policy is Becoming the Critical Factor
HUNGARY - Report 11 Jun 2014
Executive Summary The new government cabinet was sworn in in early June, but it has brought about little change in policy content if any. The new cabinet has failed to present a program and, breaking with traditions, has said that it does not even intend to publish one. So as PM Orbán said before...

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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 11 Jun 2014
Ibope: Dilma down, opponents up Yesterday, June 10, the Ibope Institute released a new presidential voting intention and government evaluation poll.The poll was contracted by the Union of Aldermen of the State of São Paulo and conducted on June 4-7.The poll presented some interesting new facts: 1...