GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On April 4, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) issued its revision of the Balances of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2021. The net deficit of the NFPS changed from 5.53% of GDP to 6.66% of GDP in 2021 (US$ 3.523 billion to US$ 4.238 billion) or 20.3% larger....

Austrian Chancellor visits Moscow and Kyiv to talk peace

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

On April 11 Karl Nehammer spoke to Putin in person for an hour. His attempt to persuade Putin to end military action failed. Nehammer then flew to Kyiv to meet Zelensky.Austria is an EU but not a NATO member. Therefore, its attempt to broker peace was not rejected outright by Russia despite the E...

Economics: Despite recent consumption and investment growth, the outlook remains weak for the next two years

MEXICO · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The latest private consumption and gross fixed capital formation data showed their main indexes experiencing growth at January in an extension of what has been a recovery trend for almost a year and a half. The rise in GFCF extended to construction as well as to spending on both imported and dome...

Exchange Rate, Fiscal Fundamentals and Fiscal Results

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The strongly rising inflation casts doubt on whether the SELIC rate of 12.75% for an extended period will be sufficient to bring inflation to the target in 2023. If the exchange rate continues to strengthen, it can help achieve this goal somewhat. In this report, we analyze what has been happenin...

The Holy Week holiday reduces activities in the legislature, public servants continue to strike, and the União Brasil may form an alliance with other third way parties and launch a single presidential candidate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The opposition had obtained the minimum 27 signatures necessary to create a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate to investigate allegations of corruption in the Ministry of Education. However, government negotiations managed to withdraw some signatures to reduce the negative eff...

The state of the recovery: firms faring better than households

INDIA · Report · 11 Apr 2022

There is a divergence in the picture of the economy as seen in data for large firms vs. the data for households. The large firms are faring well. For the first time since 2013, expansion of net sales and operating profit is seen, in real terms, in the aggregate values for non-financial non-oi...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?

ISRAEL · Report · 11 Apr 2022

1. Rates are expected to move higher today; the bond market will react to the BoI policy rate forecast and the Governor’s press conference. 2. The cumulative fiscal deficit declined to 1.4% GDP in March; we expect bond issuance to decline further. 3. The coalition has weakened, maki...

The 47th day of war: the big battle over Donbas "slips"

UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

We are living in anticipation of the decisive battle over Donbas. The Russians totally withdrew from the North and the North-East. Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy are returning to peaceful life, if this phrase is applicable in nowadays. At the same time Russians are accumulating forces in Donbas and in the...

The approval of the IMF program brought calm to the foreign exchange markets but accentuated tensions within the government

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

In the last week of January, before the announcement of an understanding between the staff of the IMF and the Ministry of Economy, the foreign exchange rate in the bond swap market (CCL) and the informal ¨blue¨ market fluctuated around 220 pesos per dollar. Now, two weeks after the final approval...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

We expect a rate hike today of 0.15% Due to robust growth and strong labor market, we cannot rule out a rate hike of 0.4% to a level of 0.5% (35% probability). All conditions have been met to commence a tightening cycle: recovery from the pandemic, rapid economic growth, strong labor market, infl...

Armenia and Azerbaijan close to a peace treaty after talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 9 peace talks between the two former Soviet republics took place in Brussels. The EU midwifed the talks. The leaders of both countries met and expressed optimism about the talks. They agreed to establish a joint commission to delineate the border.The talks took 4 hours, which is a good s...

Russia closes offices of human rights organizations

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 8 Moscow said it was shutting the offices of the Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International. Both bodies have had operations in Russia since the early 1990s. Thirty organizations have been removed from the registry of international organizations in Russia owing to breaking the la...

Paying in rubles for energy imports from Russia

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

PM Orbán has happened to say that Hungary could pay in rubles for its gas imports from Russia if necessary. He sees that as a technical affair, he said.EU Commission head vd Leyen reacted by saying that paying in rubles would clearly breach existing sanctions. So far, Hungary has complied with al...

EU sanctions Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

On April 7 the EU voted to ban Russian coal and to forbid Russian ships to dock in EU ports. The sanctions package include a ban on selling certain high tech goods to Russia. Moreover, many Russian owned yachts have been seized. The assets of several Russian banks have been frozen. The EU has for...

De-facto change in monetary policy stance

INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The monetary policy statement though retained the accommodative stance but the wording was changed to: ...."remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth." There is a possibility that th...