GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Russian markets have been hit strongly in recent months. The situation became even more colorful as inflation accelerated not only in Russia, but also globally. This added extra flavor and intrigue. As Russian inflation reached 8.7% in January, while that in the US hit 7.5%, not too different...

Does Kremlin start a face-saving withdrawal?

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

On February 15 Russian Parliament addressed Vladimir Putin with a request to recognize occupied territories of Ukraine (Donbas and Luhansk) as independent states. This step might be a first move for a face-saving de-escalation of current tension. After raising the stakes so high Vladimir Putin co...

Robust growth supports monetary tightening in April

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

GDP growth in 2021 reached 8.1% (above expectations), with private consumption up 12%, investments expanded by 10%, and exports increased by 14%. This GDP growth is way above initial BoI estimate for 6.5% growth. GDP growth in Q421 reached 16.6%, with private consumption up 19% and exports up 26%...

Russian Parliament wants to recognize Donbas and Luhansk

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

On February 15 a vote sent a resolution to Putin suggesting that the two breakaway republics should be recognized as independent countries. If Putin were to recognize these regions as sovereign states it would exacerbate tensions with Ukraine. Donbas and Luhansk broke away from Ukraine in 2014. T...

The Senate should analyze the fuel bills today, the first stage of the privatization of Eletrobras was approved in the TCU yesterday, and the STF should judge the constitutionality of the Electoral Fund

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2022

The bill that deals with the ICMS, and Bill 1472, which creates a Fuel Price Stabilization Fund and institutes an export tax on crude oil, are listed as Items 4 and 5 on the Senate agenda, respectively. The ICMS bill originated in the House, so the deputies will have the final word. Bill 1472, on...

The European Court ruled against Hungary and Poland

HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

This is unsurprising but highly consequential.Hungary and Poland asked the European Court last year to scrap the EU's new rule-of-law fiscal mechanism by declaring that it is not in conformity with existing EU law. However, the Court refused to do so, saying this morning that the mechanism is leg...

April's rate hike appears more certain

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

January’s CPI slightly exceeds expectations Inflation in January increased by 0.2% and by 3.1% y/y (up from 2.8% last month). Market expectations were in the 0.0%-0.1% m/m range. There were no big inflation surprises, several items increased slightly more than expectations; furniture and home app...

GDP, just as inflation, surprises on the upside

HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

Real GDP growth for Q4 2021 came out at 2.1% qoq, 7.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis in first reading today, making the annual growth rate the same 7.1% for 2021, after -4.9% in the Covid-hit 2020. The analyst expectation was 1.3% qoq, 6.9% yoy for Q4. Growth actually accelerated in Q4...

President Bolsonaro arrives in Russia, the TCU analyzes the privatization process of Eletrobras, and the TSE released the party advertisement calendar

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro arrives in Russia, where he will meet with President Vladimir Putin and local businessmen. He leaves on Thursday to go to Hungary. In December, the rapporteur of the privatization process of Eletrobras, Minister Aroldo Cedraz, pointed out some inconsistencies, with a focu...

Turkmen President nominates his son to succeed him

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

On February 14 as we predicted, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov appointed his son Serdar as candidate to take over the presidency. 40-year-old Serdar is the candidate of the Democratic Party. Voters will go to the polls on March 12 in an early election.It is certain that Serdar will be elec...

US shuts Embassy in Ukraine over war fears

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

On February 14 the US made the extraordinary move. Apart from in Kabul in 2021 the US has not shuttered an embassy for over 40 years. Communications equipment has been destroyed to prevent it from falling into the wrong hands. The US said the move was due to Russia's suddenly moving even more tro...

Doria under pressure and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro meets with President Vladimir Putin in Russia. Senate leaders are to discuss the fuel bill. At the TCU, the priority is the judgment on the privatization of Eletrobras. The STF judges the constitutionality of the Electoral Fund. This week's Talking Points: * Do...

Economic Activity and Inflation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

The latest information, including the IBC-Br, indicate that GDP in the fourth quarter probably expanded marginally, leading to growth of 4.7% in 2021. Brazil is entering 2022 with the one-year ex ante real interest rate (the rate relevant to determine economic activity) above 6.5%, an extremely r...

The BoI is proceeding to revise the inflation target

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

The BoI is proceeding to revise the inflation targetThe BoI has been considering altering the inflation target for several years now. The general direction (in our opinion) is to shift the inflation target from a range of 1%-3%, to “around 2% symmetric over the medium term” as the ECB target is f...

President Bolsonaro will meet with Vladimir Putin, the STF will judge the ADI against a provision of the 2022 LDO, and Minister Fux will meet with public servants of the Judiciary to discuss a salary raise

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro will meet with Vladimir Putin and local businessmen. Tension in the region has increased in last few days. Ukraine has convened a meeting with Russia and members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for the next 48 hours. ADI nº 7.058 was file...