GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

When we issued our Forecast report on February 22, we had not expected that the risk we warned about that would be “disruptive to growth everywhere,” i.e., a war in Ukraine, would happen just two days later. The still unfolding event, with its immediate outsized impact on global commodity prices,...

The fifth day of war: the front has stabilized

UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

The expected offensive of Belorussian army so far did not come to reality. Ukrainian army destroyed two more big groups of Russian forces that tried to take Kyiv into circle. But overall it looks like the fights have eased by now and the front has stabilized. If Russians do not bring more fresh b...

The BoI prepares markets for a tightening cycle

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

The BoI is clearly signaling for an imminent hike Rates remained stable last week, but the FG was revised significantly to suggest tightening “in the coming months”. This more hawkish bias is due to both higher-than-expected inflation in December and January and very robust growth numbers. The la...

Speaking of unstable equilibria

TURKEY · Report · 27 Feb 2022

The Turkish media is mesmerized by the heartbreaking scenes of war in Ukraine, which means domestic politics has been relatively quiet during the week. President Erdogan, too, seems to have grasped that the Russia-Ukraine War could deal a big blow to the already shaky New Economic Model. Indee...

The 4th day of the war: UN reported 368 thousand refugees from Ukraine so far

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

These people have fled mainly to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova. Hungary's share is 62k refugees cumulatively today.Receiving refugees near the border is starting to cost government money, but the costs are very substantially lower than one would think on the basis of arrival numb...

Rapid growth, high inflation

HUNGARY · Report · 23 Feb 2022

This month’s story is about the substantial upside surprises in the latest GDP and inflation reports. These need to be looked at in the light of the upcoming election, as the Fidesz government is aiming to enjoy the positive public mood created by its heavily procyclical fiscal and income policie...

Ukraine crisis is a gas opportunity for Qatar, a diplomatic challenge for the UAE and a spur for OPEC+ tapering

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Feb 2022 · 1 response

* OPEC+ is more likely to boost volumes, particularly in May, when higher baselines come into effect for UAE, Saudi and Kuwait. * Qatar has a huge opportunity to sign long-term LNG contracts on beneficial terms. Its North Field expansion will deliver more gas than Nord Stream 2. * The UAE faces...

Politics: AMLO’s continuing missteps over “Gray house,” his worst political crisis to date

MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The scandal that first broke in late January over a luxury Houston home rented by the son and daughter-in-law of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to take a toll on AMLO's political credibility as bumbling attempts at explaining away the issue turn to what appear to be increasingly ...

Economics: First monetary policy decision of the year eases uncertainty amid heightened inflation

MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The mid-month release of the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for January showed 12-month inflation running at 7.07% alongside a continuing and especially troubling resurgence of core inflation (6.21%) that is being powered by strong gains in the goods index (7.86%). It is obvious at this po...

Bracing for change

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 22 Feb 2022

Several forthcoming changes cloud the outlook for 2022. The major change domestically is the midyear change in government that introduces some degree of policy uncertainty. The major change externally is the impending US Fed policy rate hike that raises risks for emerging markets, especially thos...

Evangelical vote targeted and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The Senate attempts to vote on fuel-related bills. At the CCJ of the Senate, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Roberto Rocha (PSDB-MA), submits his report. Minister Edson Fachin is the new president of the TSE. Four new presidential election polls will be published. This week's Talkin...

The Fiscal Situation of The States

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The past two years have witnessed a significant improvement in the fiscal situation of the subnational entities, which in 2021 had a primary surplus of 1.2% of GDP. This is partly due to structural improvements, such as the reforms of the civil service pension systems in some states. However, the...

The BoI prepares markets for imminent tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 22 Feb 2022

1. The forward guidance in the monetary statement shifted sharply, conveying the likelihood of tightening in “coming months”. 2. The various factors in the monetary statement all support tightening: inflation has accelerated, growth is robust, unemployment has declined and the Omicron wave ...

Russia recognizes occupied territories: the play comes to the end

UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

Everything develops in line with the scenario we described here. Russia recognized occupied territories of Donbas and Luhansk as independent states and deployed ‘peacekeepers’ in those territories. We see this development as a face-saving withdrawal for Kremlin. Moscow has been raising stakes thu...

The PMI declines sharply

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Feb 2022

The PMI declined in January by 4.9 points to 42.9, with both the domestic and export orders declining sharply (by over 7 points) to reflect contraction. The employment component fell by 18 points. Activity in January was influenced by the Omicron wave, but nevertheless, this sharp decline in all ...