GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As oil continues to rise, the IEA hinted that the Gulf could make up for shortfalls elsewhere in OPEC+. * Iran nuclear talks reconvened in Vienna amidst expectations that a deal is no more than a few weeks away. * Omicro...

The recovery will slow, but at least an inflationary explosion can be avoided

ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Feb 2022

After long negotiations, the staff of the IMF and Minister Martín Guzman reached an understanding on the path for the primary fiscal deficit and the monetary assistance of the Central Bank to the Treasury that will be the core of a program. The government hopes the program will be supported by t...

Past the peak of the Omicron wave?

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022

Some indicators seem to suggest that the peak of the local 5th (Omicron) wave of Covid has been just passed, whereas others, normally lagged indicators, have not shown any sign of improvement yet. Two things are for sure, anyway: hospitalisation and death rates are very much lower with Omicron th...

Positive fiscal surprises mask threatening increases in spending

COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Feb 2022

Deficit numbers for 2021 came in substantially below the previous round of government projections; the same happened with debt. Minister Restrepo hinted at even better results when definitive 2021 GDP numbers come out in mid-February. The context Restrepo provided prior to releasing the defici...

HEADS UP: Anger spills out to the streets

TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Rising poverty in Turkey has been a constant theme in our reports since the beginning of 4Q2021. New Year wage, salary and pension hikes soothed some of the pain of national impoverishment. Erdogan than committed another mistake by allowing regulated prices to be hiked faster than disposable inco...

High inflation could warrant surprise Central Bank move

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2022

In January 2022, CPI annual inflation was 6.94%, surpassing the 6.31% expected by the respondents to the Central Bank survey. Food, increase of 19.94%, however 186 of the 188 classes of goods and services had price increases. So, it is a widespread phenomenon that goes well beyond food (see Table...

Congress is expected to review presidential vetoes this week, the fuels issue remains on the agenda, and two new polls on the presidential election are to be published

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

One of the vetoes that may be overturned is the one on the Budget. In all, the Bolsonaro government vetoed R$ 3.184 billion in expenditures approved by legislators. The rapporteur of the bill supports overturning this veto. Another veto refers to the bill that allowed the renegotiation of debts o...

Turkey Covid Watch - February 7, 2022

TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Since our last Covid Watch (of January 24, 2022), cases continued to rise, to reach new highs. Average cases rose to 101.7K on Sunday. Despite daily infections reaching record levels, however, there has been no changes in the regulatory environment.

Tightening labor market and strong growth support higher rates

ISRAEL · Report · 07 Feb 2022

1. Despite Omicron, economic data in January was generally positive, including the latest business survey and employment growth. 2. Credit growth was rapid in 2021, especially household credit for housing, and this will increasingly become a consideration for monetary policy. 3. We ...

All about the elections

TURKEY · Report · 06 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The politics section of this report is entirely dedicated to the possibility of early elections because this is the “only talk of the town”. We start by revisiting our 2022 baseline political scenario, which remains broadly intact, with only minor revisions. The next section cites circumstanti...

Tightening labor market and strong growth support higher rates

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

The business sector survey reflects fairly strong growth in January (except for hotels); the outlook ahead is generally positive. This print is surprisingly strong in light of the peak of the Omicron wave.Wage growth remains moderate Wage growth is averaging 3.4% annual over the past two years, m...

Industry and retail sales data: good news on growth

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

Monthly data for December appear quite good from the growth perspective. Industrial output growth rose to 3.6% yoy, after 2.2% yoy in November and negative figures in the preceding two months. Indeed, this was the best figure seen since July, the last month of the initial post-Covid recovery phas...

China supports Russia against NATO

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

On February 4 Putin met the Chinese President in Beijing. Putin is there for the start of the Winter Olympics. It was their first in person meeting for almost two years. President Xi refused all face to face meetings until now because of coronavirus.China said that NATO should not let in any more...

Erdogan in Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

On February 3 the Turkish President visited Kyiv. He offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has cordial relations with both nations. Despite being a NATO member, Turkey cannot be relied upon to take the side of other NATO countries with regard to Ukraine. Ukraine is not a NATO memb...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE intercepts attacks and announces tax, Dubai Q3 GDP, Oman raising loan

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Feb 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck to its 400k b/d taper, and oil rose to a new post-2014 high of $93. * PMIs fell slightly in Saudi Arabia and UAE due to Omicron and inflation. * Saudi government deposits at SAMA fell sharply in December, may...