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The Central Bank’s Dilemma: to stop or not to stop?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jul 2022

At the next COPOM meeting, the Central Bank will likely increase the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, to 13.75%. Although this rate is strongly restrictive, will this mark the end of the monetary tightening cycle? The analysis of the balance of risks – domestic and international – indicates it woul...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly decelerated in 2Q22 but will bounce back
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 25 Jul 2022

The Kazakh president recently mentioned that the country’s GDP was up by a mere 3.4% y-o-y in 1H22, while in 1Q22, it was up by 4.6% y-o-y. Even though the figure quoted by the president had not yet been officially published, the general perception is that economic growth in the country slowed in...

Economics: Private consumption strengthens but spending on durable goods and services remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jul 2022

Growth in private consumption has accelerated in recent months but has yet to significantly improve on pre-pandemic levels. Household expenditure has not grown uniformly, and there are especially pronounced lags in the consumption of durable goods such as autos and electronic appliances, as well ...

Politics: US pressure underlies aged capo’s arrest as drug trade and consumption keep expanding
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jul 2022

The recent arrest by the Mexican Marines of Caro Quintero, the once-powerful drug kingpin and prime suspect in the 1985 abduction, torture and murder of DEA Special Agent Enrique Camarena, says a lot about the current state of US-Mexico relations. His capture came three days after President López...

A good SONA
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2022

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. today gave his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) before congress. The speech was forward-looking, without the usual finger pointing of inherited problems, reminding listeners that this administration is in part a continuity of the last one. This is evident n...

The PL officially launched Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy yesterday, a part of the MDB supports Lula, and the government is expected to publish a decree to reduce the IPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2022

The slogan chosen for the PL convention was “For the good of Brazil”. In addition to his anti-establishment narratives, Bolsonaro's speech included attacks on Lula and the defense of the economic measures adopted by the federal government. He also called on his supporters to “take to the streets ...

The INR at 80
INDIA · Report · 25 Jul 2022

Recent statements by the RBI Governor have clarified the commitment of RBI to defending the exchange rate. Round numbers such as 65, 70, 75, 80, etc. seem to be places where the RBI takes a stand. USD/INR volatility is lower for the last Rs.1 or Rs.2 prior to the round number, and then volatility...

Recovering from the lockdowns
CHINA · Report · 25 Jul 2022

GDP grew only 2.5% y/y in H1, but is recovering from the lockdowns. As the pandemic shock has come gradually under control, and with the start of various economic stabilization policies, the recovery of growth in June has lifted Q2 growth to achieve positive growth of 0.4% y/y, contributing to a ...

Conditions are ripe for steady aggressive tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Jul 2022

1. Despite some modest decline in the demand for workers, the labor market remains tight and at full employment. 2. Growth appears to be fairly steady, with some moderation. 3. We continue to expect fairly aggressive tightening this year, to 2.75% by early 2023.

Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB/Stable rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2022

This was announced on Friday, which was set as the second and last review date for Fitch's Hungarian sovereign rating for 2022. Finance minister Varga specifically commented on this news, calling the rating decision as truly favourable. To add context, he mentioned that during the past few months...

Russian Foreign Minister in Africa
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2022

On July 24 Sergei Lavrov visited Egypt. He is trying to convince Egypt that Russia will honor the grain export deal. Ukraine is Egypt's major supplier of grain. Many Egyptians live on USD 2 per day. If the prices rises a few cents there will be riots.  Egypt has a warm relationship with Russia ba...

No summer rest for the wicked
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2022 · 1 response

Turkey could be experiencing a huge Covid-19 outbreak, about which the government policy seems to be “willful neglect”. Ankara’s objective remains to avoid any action that might harm the tourism season, but the policy could have devastating reverberations on the economy in winter months. As Pr...

Russians attack Odessa seaport promptly after Istanbul grain exports deal signed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2022

Yesterday, all world media heralded a deal on the de-blockade of Ukrainian grain exports via Black Sea ports signed in Istanbul. At least 15 mmt of grain (of near $6 bln value) are locked in the country from the harvest of 2021. And a new grain harvest is underway. The deal looked really strange ...

Turkey says Russia and Ukraine have agreed a grain deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jul 2022

On July 22 Turkey said that talks brokered by it have borne fruit. The agreement would allow Ukraine to export grain from Odesa through the Black Sea. Turkey will inspects ships arriving to pick up grain and ensure they were not delivering arms for Ukraine. Ukrainian ships will guide grain ships ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Jul 2022

July 11 CPC: The court replaced the ban on oil transportation for CPC with a fine of R200 ths President: Mr Tokayev signed amendments to the Tax Code of Kazakhstan on increasing the mineral extraction tax on tradable metals by 50% July 12 Ministry of Energy: The ban on the export of gasoline, die...

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