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President Jair Bolsonaro arrives in Russia, where he will meet with President Vladimir Putin and local businessmen. He leaves on Thursday to go to Hungary. In December, the rapporteur of the privatization process of Eletrobras, Minister Aroldo Cedraz, pointed out some inconsistencies, with a focu...

Turkmen President nominates his son to succeed him

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

On February 14 as we predicted, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov appointed his son Serdar as candidate to take over the presidency. 40-year-old Serdar is the candidate of the Democratic Party. Voters will go to the polls on March 12 in an early election.It is certain that Serdar will be elec...

US shuts Embassy in Ukraine over war fears

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

On February 14 the US made the extraordinary move. Apart from in Kabul in 2021 the US has not shuttered an embassy for over 40 years. Communications equipment has been destroyed to prevent it from falling into the wrong hands. The US said the move was due to Russia's suddenly moving even more tro...

Doria under pressure and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro meets with President Vladimir Putin in Russia. Senate leaders are to discuss the fuel bill. At the TCU, the priority is the judgment on the privatization of Eletrobras. The STF judges the constitutionality of the Electoral Fund. This week's Talking Points: * Do...

Economic Activity and Inflation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

The latest information, including the IBC-Br, indicate that GDP in the fourth quarter probably expanded marginally, leading to growth of 4.7% in 2021. Brazil is entering 2022 with the one-year ex ante real interest rate (the rate relevant to determine economic activity) above 6.5%, an extremely r...

The BoI is proceeding to revise the inflation target

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

The BoI is proceeding to revise the inflation targetThe BoI has been considering altering the inflation target for several years now. The general direction (in our opinion) is to shift the inflation target from a range of 1%-3%, to “around 2% symmetric over the medium term” as the ECB target is f...

President Bolsonaro will meet with Vladimir Putin, the STF will judge the ADI against a provision of the 2022 LDO, and Minister Fux will meet with public servants of the Judiciary to discuss a salary raise

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro will meet with Vladimir Putin and local businessmen. Tension in the region has increased in last few days. Ukraine has convened a meeting with Russia and members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for the next 48 hours. ADI nº 7.058 was file...

Strong fiscal numbers expected to support bond issuance reduction

ISRAEL · Report · 14 Feb 2022

1. A surprisingly large fiscal surplus in January supports lower bond issuance going forward. 2. We expect January’s CPI to come in at 0.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y (accelerating from 2.8%). 3. We maintain our call for a rate hike on April 11; further tightening will be moderate, and the cyc...

Biden repeats support for Ukraine over war fears

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

The US President spoke to the Ukrainian President on February 13 for an hour. Both leaders agreed to the twin-track approach to avert war: diplomacy and deterrence. The US reiterated that it recognizes Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk as legally Ukrainian. Biden underscored that if there is a Russian i...

Strikes in Kazahstan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

On February 9 workers downed tools at the Burghylau Oil Company in Zhanaozen. This city is where strikes led to 100 people being shot by the police in 2011. The strikes are calling for improved wages and conditions. The strikes have affected other energy companies in the region. A nuclear power s...

Summits, packages and futility

TURKEY · Report · 13 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The week’s marque politics event was the first gathering of 6 opposition leaders to discuss the future of post-Erdogan Turkey. The summit produced little in the way of concrete plans, but we shall wait until 28 February to pass final judgement, when the ‘Transition to a Strengthened Parliamentary...

Strong fiscal numbers expected to support bond issuance reduction

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2022

January witnessed a huge fiscal surplus The fiscal surplus reached 18.5bn ILS, as tax revenues increased sharply on huge tax revenues from corporates. The LTM fiscal deficit declined to 3.3% GDP from 4.5% last month. We expect the MoF to reduce weekly bond issuance to 0.8-0.9bn from 1.1-1.2bn at ...

Early presidential election in Turkmenistan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

On February 12 the Turkmen government said that an early presidential election shall be held on March 12, 2022. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has ruled the country for 15 years. The 64-year-old has dropped hints that he might retire early from his post. In 2019 he had some health scares.T...

US warns Russia could invade Ukraine anytime but Biden and Putin agree to speak

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

On February 11 the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Russia could launch a full-scale war imminently. The US has warned its citizens in Ukraine to leave by February 13. Some say that Russia would not make an aggressive move now as the Olympics are on until February 20. The US d...

UK Defense Minister in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 11 Ben Wallace visited Moscow to meet his Russian analogue. He repeated the warning of other Western leaders that a full scale war between Russia and Ukraine would have grave repercussions.The Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said that tensions in Eastern Europe were not due to Russia....