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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

CPI-inflation, core inflation sharply up in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

Unfortunately, those analysts (including us), who expected the yoy headline rate to move upwards in January have proven right. But even they (including us again) were negatively surprised by how sharply the headline rate actually jumped, to 7.9% yoy from the previous two months' 7.4% yoy level. T...

Russia and Ukraine at a negotiating impasse
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 11 the Russian delegate said that talks in Berlin had not achieved an agreement. The Ukrainian delegate confirmed this. There were 9 hours of talks on February 10. Germany and France are brokering the talks despite being partial towards Ukraine. The four countries are called the Norma...

China cements relations with Russia and Central Asia at the Olympics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 4 the Winter Olympics opened in China. The presidents of Russia and all the Central Asian countries attended. No Western leader was there. The West is signaling its displeasure at Uyghurs being locked up in re-education centers.The Olympics is an unmissable opportunity for these leade...

President Ramaphosa's Statement of National Address (SONA) 2022: More of the Same Correct Analysis, Promises of Reforms, and holding the fiscal line
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022 · 1 response

In his 2-hour SONA, President Ramaphosa delivered a detailed economy-centric speech to the Parliament. Whilst reiterating his administration's commitment to the Constitutional Democracy, he articulated his market-friendly economic ideology more crisply than ever before. "Government does not creat...

UK Foreign Minister in Moscow makes no progress
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

On February 10 Liz Truss met her Russian counterpart in Moscow. They both openly acknowledged that relations are strained. Truss said that Russia must desist from Cold War rhetoric and massing troops near Ukraine. Lavrov accused NATO of aggression and russophobic hysteria. Truss embarrassed herse...

The recovery will slow, but at least an inflationary explosion can be avoided
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Feb 2022

​After long negotiations, the staff of the IMF and Minister Martín Guzman reached an understanding on the path for the primary fiscal deficit and the monetary assistance of the Central Bank to the Treasury that will be the core of a program. The government hopes the program will be supported by t...

Economic performance wasn’t too bad in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Despite some noise about the vulnerability and the weakness of the Russian economy, which often appears in the media (especially at times of shocks), the country’s economic performance didn’t look bad either in 2020 or 2021. Having contracted by 2.7% in 2020, it looks as though economic growth wa...

The XP/Ipespe presidential poll will be published today, Gilberto Kassab said the PSD will have a presidential candidate, and the PEC on fuels unlikely to have been well received in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2022

Today, a new XP/Ipespe poll on the presidential election will be published. The poll began on Monday, February 7, and ended yesterday, February 9. In the previous poll, carried out on January 24 and 25, Lula had 44% of voters’ intentions and Bolsonaro, 24%. The president of the PSD, Gilberto Kass...

January CPI-inflation due tomorrow: upside risks are significant
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Latest monthly readings for the yoy headline rate were 7.4% both in November and December, so that the latter represented a negative surprise. E.g. the MNB expected 7% yoy for December in its Q4 inflation forecast, which was published in the middle of that same month. But private sector analysts ...

China’s shadow stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Feb 2022

Many analysts are predicting a large economic stimulus in 2022, in the form of lower interest rates, further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), an expansion of monetary policy, or other means. However, Beijing is so far holding off on a major stimulus program. There is a consistent worr...

Macron in Moscow and Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

On February 9 the French President visited Putin and Zelensky. Putin promised that Russia would not escalate the situation. But this leaves open the possibility of Russia's raising the stakes if someone else escalates. Macron now says it is possible that Russia and Ukraine will negotiate anew.Put...

Surprisingly good fiscal news is positive for the bond market
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

The fiscal deficit continues to move rapidly lower, reaching 3.3% GDP LTM in January from 4.5% in December 2021. The fiscal surplus reached 18.5bn ILS in January (in part seasonal). Tax revenues continue to expand rapidly, up 39% in January y/y! mostly due to a surge in revenues from corporate ta...

Consumer inflation spikes 1.3% m/m in January, above expectations
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Consumer inflation was reported +1.3% m/m or +10.0% y/y, which is almost twice faster than we expected for January. Twice-stronger food prices (+2.5% m/m in January vs. +1.2% m/m we estimated) on the back of an upsurge in prices for vegetables (+20.5% m/m) was the main reason for that strong cons...

Fiscal package expect to have a modest impact on inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

The government presented yesterday a series of fiscal measures aimed at reducing the cost of living and improving disposable income, including reducing import tariffs on a series of consumer goods and raw materials, reducing the price increase of electricity, subsidizing afternoon kindergarten ca...

Azerbaijan returns 8 POWs to Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022

Baku returned the soldiers who were taken prisoner in 2021. Azerbaijan said it freed the men out of humanitarianism. A French plane went to Baku to collect the Armenians and bring them back to Armenia. France is the most pro-Armenian country in Europe and has a small but vocal Armenian ethnic com...

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