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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Slower rate of devaluation to repress inflation
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 04 Mar 2021

The recovery of the economy since May 2020, after the sharp decline of the previous four months, was faster than previously forecast. In November we had forecast a decline of 12%, similar to the decline estimated by the government in the presentation of the 2020 Budget to Congress. In 2020, the a...

EU will not end sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2021

On March 2 the EU reaffirmed that sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 will not be removed. Those sanctions are in relation to the Ukrainian conflict and have to be extended every six months. The European Council chief is on a 2-day visit to Ukraine at the moment.The EU also announced a new econom...

Salvadorans empower President Nayib Bukele
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

As we have been reporting, legislative and other elections were held on February 28th. As expected, the result was widely favorable to New Ideas, the party of President Nayib Bukele. Reports assure that with about 90% of the votes counted, New Ideas won 66% of the total vote. That percentage, if ...

​UAE: Sharjah taps the bond market despite downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Mar 2021

Sharjah is raising $1bn in 7 and 12-year bonds despite downgrades by rating agencies to the verge of junk status and little sign of a plan to bring its structural deficit under control. Implicit support from Abu Dhabi remains key to the story.

Russian financial markets: securities to play a more significant role for households
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2021

The aggregate amount invested by Russian households in various financial instruments (outside deposits) almost doubled last year and reached R6 trln as of the end of 2020. The total number of brokerage accounts has already exceeded 10 mln units, but further rapid growth of this indicator is less ...

Fidesz has left the EPP's parliamentary faction this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2021

In a letter sent to Manfred Weber, chairman of the European People's Party faction in the European Parliament, PM Orbán wrote that Fidesz representatives are leaving the EPP faction immediately. This followed a vote in the EPP faction earlier today, in which an overwhelming majority of EPP repres...

Understanding the rebound in the economy
INDIA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

The most interesting questions about the Indian economy today are about the rebound in the economy after the depths of the lockdowns. How complete is this recovery? And, looking ahead, will we get back to sustained growth?

​Inflation rises further, but MPC likely to stay put
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2021 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by 0.9%, m/m, in February, higher than the market consensus of 0.7% with the 12-month CPI inflation thus increasing further to 15.6% in February, from 15% in January. Domestic-PPI inflation was 1.2%, m/m, leading to a further sharp jump in the 12-month rate to 27.1%, from 26....

​Alberto Fernandez's Kirchnerist speech during the opening session of Congress
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

President Alberto Fernandez (AF) gave a long yet carefully structured speech during the Congress’s opening session. He reviewed his government’s achievements, defended it from what he called “malicious criticism that responds to unspeakable interests of concentrated economic powers”, and made sev...

A Second Denial to Debate the Bill in Favor of Dollarization
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Mar 2021

By the end of last year considering general comments from legislators on the subject bill, we had hopes for its approval. However, so far, the Administrative Council from the Assembly has denied twice the possibility to debate the bill in the plenary session. Albeit Ministry of Finance Mauricio P...

Give me some doughnuts
CHILE · Report · 02 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Monthly Index of Economic activity (IMACEC) in December surprised strongly on the upside, and provided a slight upward bias to our 2021 growth projection of 6.5%. The monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted series excluding mining was 4.4%, the best result since September 2020. According...

A few words on GDP, EURHUF, vaccination and central bank policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2021

KSH (the Statistical Office) has just revised its GDP figures for Q4 2020. The revision has taken a distinct upwardly direction: in real terms and on sda basis, GDP rose by 1.4% qoq and fell by 4.1% yoy in Q4, as opposed to the preliminary +1.1% yoy, -4.3% yoy figures.Now that the economy seems t...

​Erdogan forced into premature normalization
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2021

As you read these lines, President Erdogan will have unveiled another pretentious “Human Rights Reform Plan”, which I don’t intend to cover, because if the president truly wanted human rights improvements, he wouldn’t order dissidents and journalists to be kept behind bars. Instead, I want to bri...

Slovakia will receive 2 million doses of Sputnik V
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2021

On March 2 the first batch of the Russian coronavirus vaccine arrived in Slovakia. Moscow is delighted with this commerical and soft power success. Slovakia is an EU country. The EU's vaccine rollout has been notoriously slow.Austria and the Czech Republic are in discussions about buying Sputnik ...

The dangers of deafness to suffering
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Mar 2021 · 2 responses

Last year’s 6.8% contraction represents, not surprisingly, the worst economic downturn in Colombian history – and only the fourth year in more than a century in which the economy has posted negative results. Though most sectors, especially manufacturing and commerce, followed overall GDP, agricul...