The economic team led by Meirelles inherited a grave fiscal situation, with an explosive public debt trajectory that cannot be fixed in the short run, even with approval of bold measures, such as the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would cap real growth of expenditures. Despite the n...
Consumer price inflation surprised on the upside this time, coming in at 0.5%, above expectations of a broadly flat reading, which led to a significant jump in the 12-month rate to 7.6% from 6.6%. The full one percentage point increase in the 12-month rate was driven almost entirely by food infla...
Labor MarketIn the March-May rolling quarter, labor market continued to show signs of deterioration. Unemployment reached 6.8%, its highest level for this rolling quarter since 2011. The 12-month growth of employment went from 1.5% in April to 1.3% in May. In the last year, about 102,000 jobs wer...
The Venezuelan government is under observation by the Organization of American States. The Permanent Council discussed the report issued by Luis Almagro, Secretary General. Further actions by the OAS are on hold for now, waiting for the Venezuelan government to signal its willingness to actively ...
The UK's recent Brexit vote has apparently sparked an array of speculations by politicians, analysts and the media, to a great extent liberating people's imagination, amidst the conditions of a general uncertainty about future prospects. One distinct category of such speculations has been the pro...
Brazilians’ opinion of the government has improved. The CNI/Ibope poll released today, July 1, shows that “regular” evaluations of Michel Temer’s administration are 17 points higher than Dilma’s. Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad”) have decreased 30 points compared to his predecessor. He still ...
Indonesian politics continued to heat up with the achievement of one million IDs collected by a group called “Teman Ahok”, or “Friends of Ahok” in Bahasa Indonesia, to support the candidacy of “Ahok” (Basuki Tjahaja Purnama) to run for governor of Jakarta. Formally the candidacy required 7.5% of ...
Change has come to the Philippines in the person of its 16th president, Rodrigo Duterte, who was sworn into office at noon yesterday. In a carefully crafted inaugural speech - without the usual profanity - and a three-hour cabinet meeting afterwards, President Duterte set the tone for his 6-year ...
Executive Summary President Erdogan displayed great leadership and pragmatism by acceding to reconciliation with Israel and Russia, both of which might have felt like personal defeats to him. Ankara sources suggest that reconciliation with Egypt, and even Syria might be in the works. At home, MHP...
Aligning the best and bravest to lead the enactment of the new peace deal with the FARC will be the Santos administration’s main task for the next two years, in addition to winning the plebiscite. As Brexit just showed, winning a popular vote is harder than it looks. The picture of peace being si...
A chronically low saving rate and a large current account deficit are well known features of the Turkish economy. What is somewhat less well-known, or appreciated, is the constraint that this imposes on Turkish central bank’s ability to create lira and achieve ‘financial deepening’ in the absence...
In a departure from practices of recent years, in which officials promised hefty spending cuts and then failed to implement them, so far in the current year they have fully met such adjustment targets, and then some.
However, a number of doubts remain as to just how sustainable such adjustments ...
Congress has finally approved the government’s broad-based legal bill, which incorporates changes in the social security and tax systems. The new law, called the "exceptional voluntary reporting system of tenure of national and foreign currency and other goods, locally and abroad” incorporates t...
Ukraine is definitely on recovery path. Macroeconomic statistics are exceeding projections, and political life is finally stabilizing. The business environment has also begun improving, with evidence of some steps taken toward reform. But the recovery should largely be understood as stemming from...
Economic activity continues to expand rapidly. Monthly growth in April was up 10.1% over April 2015, and up 7.1% January through April. We expect lower figures starting in May, as public spending moderates. Inflation remains low, with annualized inflation at 1.71%, well below the 4% (± 1.0%) tar...