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Giving With One Hand, Taking With the Other
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Jul 2016
The economic team led by Meirelles inherited a grave fiscal situation, with an explosive public debt trajectory that cannot be fixed in the short run, even with approval of bold measures, such as the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would cap real growth of expenditures. Despite the n...

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CPI Jumps Back Up on Food Prices
TURKEY - Report 04 Jul 2016
Consumer price inflation surprised on the upside this time, coming in at 0.5%, above expectations of a broadly flat reading, which led to a significant jump in the 12-month rate to 7.6% from 6.6%. The full one percentage point increase in the 12-month rate was driven almost entirely by food infla...

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Unemployment and Sectorial Data
CHILE - In Brief 03 Jul 2016
Labor MarketIn the March-May rolling quarter, labor market continued to show signs of deterioration. Unemployment reached 6.8%, its highest level for this rolling quarter since 2011. The 12-month growth of employment went from 1.5% in April to 1.3% in May. In the last year, about 102,000 jobs wer...

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Dialogue in limbo and recall referendum underway
VENEZUELA - Report 03 Jul 2016 1 response
The Venezuelan government is under observation by the Organization of American States. The Permanent Council discussed the report issued by Luis Almagro, Secretary General. Further actions by the OAS are on hold for now, waiting for the Venezuelan government to signal its willingness to actively ...

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A false alarm: speculation on a possible HUXIT
HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Jul 2016
The UK's recent Brexit vote has apparently sparked an array of speculations by politicians, analysts and the media, to a great extent liberating people's imagination, amidst the conditions of a general uncertainty about future prospects. One distinct category of such speculations has been the pro...

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Evaluation of the Temer Administration improves
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 01 Jul 2016
Brazilians’ opinion of the government has improved. The CNI/Ibope poll released today, July 1, shows that “regular” evaluations of Michel Temer’s administration are 17 points higher than Dilma’s. Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad”) have decreased 30 points compared to his predecessor. He still ...

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One Million IDs
INDONESIA - Report 01 Jul 2016
Indonesian politics continued to heat up with the achievement of one million IDs collected by a group called “Teman Ahok”, or “Friends of Ahok” in Bahasa Indonesia, to support the candidacy of “Ahok” (Basuki Tjahaja Purnama) to run for governor of Jakarta. Formally the candidacy required 7.5% of ...

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Setting the tone
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 01 Jul 2016
Change has come to the Philippines in the person of its 16th president, Rodrigo Duterte, who was sworn into office at noon yesterday. In a carefully crafted inaugural speech - without the usual profanity - and a three-hour cabinet meeting afterwards, President Duterte set the tone for his 6-year ...

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​Fewer politics risks, but the coast is still not clear
TURKEY - In Brief 01 Jul 2016 1 response
Executive Summary President Erdogan displayed great leadership and pragmatism by acceding to reconciliation with Israel and Russia, both of which might have felt like personal defeats to him. Ankara sources suggest that reconciliation with Egypt, and even Syria might be in the works. At home, MHP...

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We’ve Only Just Begun
COLOMBIA - Forecast 30 Jun 2016
Aligning the best and bravest to lead the enactment of the new peace deal with the FARC will be the Santos administration’s main task for the next two years, in addition to winning the plebiscite. As Brexit just showed, winning a popular vote is harder than it looks. The picture of peace being si...

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Some Unpleasant Monetary Arithmetic
TURKEY - Report 30 Jun 2016 1 response
A chronically low saving rate and a large current account deficit are well known features of the Turkish economy. What is somewhat less well-known, or appreciated, is the constraint that this imposes on Turkish central bank’s ability to create lira and achieve ‘financial deepening’ in the absence...

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Economics: More Cuts at Last, but More Needed
MEXICO - Report 30 Jun 2016
In a departure from practices of recent years, in which officials promised hefty spending cuts and then failed to implement them, so far in the current year they have fully met such adjustment targets, and then some. However, a number of doubts remain as to just how sustainable such adjustments ...

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Tax amnesty in a volatile environment
ARGENTINA - Report 30 Jun 2016
Congress has finally approved the government’s broad-based legal bill, which incorporates changes in the social security and tax systems. The new law, called the "exceptional voluntary reporting system of tenure of national and foreign currency and other goods, locally and abroad” incorporates t...

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Glimmers of Recovery
UKRAINE - Forecast 30 Jun 2016
Ukraine is definitely on recovery path. Macroeconomic statistics are exceeding projections, and political life is finally stabilizing. The business environment has also begun improving, with evidence of some steps taken toward reform. But the recovery should largely be understood as stemming from...

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The President’s Very Full Plate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 30 Jun 2016
Economic activity continues to expand rapidly. Monthly growth in April was up 10.1% over April 2015, and up 7.1% January through April. We expect lower figures starting in May, as public spending moderates. Inflation remains low, with annualized inflation at 1.71%, well below the 4% (± 1.0%) tar...