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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian food prices rising
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

On March 8 the Russian Statistics Agency published data showing that comestible prices are seeing inflation-busting increases. In February 2021 consumer prices went up 5.7% YoY. The food price rise was 7.7% YoY. Food prices have been rising worldwide. In Russia in 2020 food prices went up 6.7%. F...

​The Lula effect and the 2022 election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The decision by Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court, which places Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential race, obviously changes the scenario. Despite the disorganization on the left, Lula has a strong potential to unite political forces, including those to his right on ...

The Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 09 Mar 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • On Friday Li Keqiang announced that the GDP growth target for 2021 would be “above 6 percent”. This is well below consensus expectations for 2021 which, in my opinion, have always been too high. During the meeting Li Keqiang and other officials also ...

Joblessness climbs; quality worsens
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

January’s Labor Force Survey (LFS) showed the country’s employment rate staying at 91.3%, same as last quarter, but with the share of the underemployed rising to 16% from 14.4%. Combined with an unemployment rate of 8.7%, joblessness rose to 23.3% in January from 21.9% last quarter. Although the ...

Quite favorable inflation numbers for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was reported this morning as 0.7% mom, 3.1% yoy, the latter up from a stable 2.7% yoy in each of the previous three months. This perfectly matched market expectation and almost perfectly matched ours. But more importantly, the report's details reflect a favorabl...

Higher oil prices offer temporary relief but could stall reforms
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 09 Mar 2021

Higher-than-expected oil prices are great news for the Gulf, particularly the weaker sovereigns, and deficits should be lower than originally feared; in the most bullish case even Saudi Arabia could achieve a surplus. However, even then, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait would still have significant finan...

Russia and EU spar over Sputnik V
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

The European Medicines Agency is considering approving the Russian coronavirus vaccine. An EMA official dismissed taking Sputnik V as ''playing Russian roulette''. Russia is mortally offended and demanded that this person apologize. Moscow says the remarks show political interference in the EMA's...

Justice Fachin’s decision means Lula is eligible to run
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021 · 1 response

On Monday, Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), decided to annul the convictions of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 13th Circuit Court of Curitiba. According to the minister, the cases should be the responsibility of the Federal Justice Court of the Federal...

Politics: Governability at risk, Part II
MEXICO · Report · 08 Mar 2021

The complicated governability equation of the first two years of an administration with a severe governing capacity deficit for solving the country’s most pressing problems shows adverse results for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his 4T project that are unlikely to be reversed before h...

Main messages from the Emergency Amendment and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021

All sights are on the vote on the Emergency Amendment in the House. The government is working to conclude the vote this week. Once approved, the government will draft a provisional measure specifically on the stimulus aid payments. The IBGE releases data on unemployment and the IPCA for February....

Economics: The impact of declining Pemex and CFE
MEXICO · Report · 08 Mar 2021

Although Pemex and CFE reported worse results than expected for 2020, no one could really claim to be terribly shocked by the dire state of their income statements and balance sheets. It’s a tragedy that has been in the making for quite some time, but one that raises serious concerns about the fu...

GDP in 2020 and Some Indications for 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021

The deepest of all recessions tracked by the CODACE lasted two quarters and caused GDP in 2020 to contract by 4.1%. On the demand side, the performance of household consumption was fundamental for the recovery that occurred in the third and fourth quarters. The greatest contribution came from the...

Sound start of vaccinations points to light at the end of the tunnel
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 08 Mar 2021

A series of important events in February gives us indications of what to expect in the near future. First, the vaccination process began on February 16th, and as of March 4th, 304,490 people, or 3.9% of the target population of 7.8 million, had been vaccinated. The goal is to vaccinate at lea...

The spike in inflation expectations is less justified in Israel
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Mar 2021

* Private consumption is set to accelerate as the economy has opened up significantly. * The fiscal deficit reached 12.4% of GDP; we expect a lower deficit of 8.5% by year-end. * Inflation expectations (as reflected in the bond market) have moved higher, but we think the inflation enviro...

Mediocre numbers for industry and retail sales in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2021

Industrial output changed by +0.2% mom, -3% yoy on sda basis in January, following a much better +1.4% yoy in Q4 2020. Similarly, retail sales changed by +0.5% mom, -0.9% yoy on sda basis in January, representing no improvement from -0.9% yoy in Q4. All figures are in volume terms, of course. In ...

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