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Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Nov 2015
Though Sen. Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) leads all the scenarios in which he appears as a candidate for the 2018 presidential elections, the news in the most recent Datafolha poll is that former Senator Marina Silva (Rede), who placed third in the 2010 and 2014 elections, is a threat to both Aécio and f...

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Weekly Tracker: Nov 29 - Dec 5
TURKEY - Report 29 Nov 2015
The downed jet fighter crisis between Turkey and Russia will not fade away soon. Russia’s real motive is to disengage Turkey from all Syrian affairs, for which it found the perfect excuse. The crisis is likely to escalate in the military and economic dimensions, raising Turkey’s risk premium perm...

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What Now?
COLOMBIA - Report 27 Nov 2015
Will Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas leave the government in the next political shuffling, to follow the siren call of a 2018 presidential candidacy? Rumor has it that he might. And the rumor may have merit, since President Juan Manuel Santos’ Partido de la U lacks a credible candidate – and i...

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Conflicting signals from the MNB
HUNGARY - In Brief 27 Nov 2015
It usually does not look very elegant to return to any story with a markedly different conclusion within a few days' time. But this time around we need to do exactly this. As it happened, just one day after a senior staff member of the MNB (Mr. Virág, executive director) made a rare and specific ...

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Economics: Congress’ Tinkering with the Budget
MEXICO - Report 26 Nov 2015
As we analyzed in previous issues of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy since October 26, the changes the Mexican Congress introduced to President Enrique Peña Nieto’s original 2016 Revenue Law propose an increase of 16.9 billion pesos. In contrast, lawmakers left the president’s public deficit propos...

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Politics: Two Seats to Fill on High Court
MEXICO - Report 26 Nov 2015
President Enrique Peña Nieto has sent the Senate two alternative lists of candidates from which to choose the two people who are to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court being left by Justices Olga Sánchez Cordero and Juan Silva Meza, who are concluding their 15-year terms on the bench. This is the...

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GDP at 6%
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 26 Nov 2015
The economy’s 3Q15 performance, with growth accelerating to 6% on strong domestic demand, was generally in line with what we expected. The main source of higher growth last quarter was government spending. Public consumption rose 17% and public construction jumped 41%. Improved government expendi...

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Healthy Vanity
ECUADOR - Forecast 25 Nov 2015
In a sign of healthy and deserved vanity, President Rafael Correa has announced that he won’t run for reelection in 2017. Given the obvious fragmentation and mediocrity of the opposition, he said, his otherwise crucial presence wouldn’t be necessary to guarantee his party’s continuance in power. ...

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Lava Jato Investigation
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Nov 2015
The arrest of Senator Delcídio Amaral (PT-MS), situation leader (Dilma alley) in the Senate, has placed President Dilma and company back into the focus of Operation Lava Jato (Car Wash). Previously, President Dilma and her alleys had managed to shift the focus of the investigation on to Congress....

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A rare kind of MNB statement on the forint's exchange rate
HUNGARY - In Brief 25 Nov 2015
'We need a forint exchange rate, by which the 3% inflation target can be reached on the forecast horizon." This came from a high-ranking staff member of the MNB, Mr. Barnabás Virág, executive director, talking to Reuters earlier today. He added that Hungary's inflationary and growth outlook are b...

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Tough and Thrilling Times
PERU - Report 25 Nov 2015
More than 20 political parties have jumped into the April 10th presidential race, though only about 10 candidates are likely to emerge, after parties forge alliances. We expect the final slate to be unveiled by mid-January, when some alliances might also be revealed. All polls show Keiko Fujim...

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Hack of a Day: First Impressions
TURKEY - In Brief 24 Nov 2015
Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet Bottom Line: Very worrisome news, but further escalation or military conflict is not a foregone conclusion… A much-feared development -- because various parties (Russia, U.S., Turkey, etc.) have been operating so close to each other over the Syrian territory --...

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A Recession Near-Miss for the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 24 Nov 2015
On a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annualized basis, growth during Q3 2015 was a paltry 0.7%. Quarter-on-quarter GDP contracted by 1.3% in Q2 2015, and this means that the South African economy managed to escape a recession during Q3 2015, albeit marginally. A recession by South Af...

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Medina at His Worst Time
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 23 Nov 2015
There is little doubt that Danilo Medina and his government are at their worst moment. The charm surrounding the figure of the President has been fading, and although no recent data is available from credible polls, it is very likely that his popularity has diminished. A series of events have ...

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Week of November 23
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 23 Nov 2015
The analysis of the case against Eduardo Cunha in the Ethics Council is one of the main topics on the agenda in the House. The PPS will go to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to ask for Cunha’s removal. The government will try to vote on changes to the 2015 fiscal target in Congress, but before th...