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Country Insights

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Can Nothing Be Done?
MEXICO - Report 05 Feb 2016
While economic signals were mixed, economic news in January was overshadowed by a further devaluation of the peso. Until oil prices have clearly bottomed out, we expect the currency to keep weakening. Though these two phenomena are clearly beyond Mexican control, this does not imply that the prob...

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Abromavichus’ resignation triggers chain reaction
UKRAINE - In Brief 04 Feb 2016
Resignation of the Minister of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus triggered a real political avalanche. Ambassadors of ten countries (G-7, Switzerland, Sweden and Lithuania) expressed deep disappointment with the resignation. Public opinion leaders stood strongly in support of Abromavichus. Ex-official...

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Geneva talks suspended, Ankara worried
TURKEY - In Brief 04 Feb 2016
After only a few brief indirect meetings with the involved parties, U.N. special envoy Stefan de Mistura threw in the towel, announcing late last night that Syrian peace talks “were temporarily suspended” until 25th of February, which in my view causes great concern to Ankara. While de Mistura wa...

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Core Inflation Just Short of Double-Digit
TURKEY - Report 03 Feb 2016
Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in January, broadly in line with expectations, which raised the 12-month rate further to 9.6%, from 8.8% in December, with the increase mainly stemming from administrative price hikes and food prices . More importantly, the 12-month core inflation (I-index) conti...

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Ministry of Economy resigns blaming top officials in corruptions
UKRAINE - In Brief 03 Feb 2016
Ministry of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus publicly informed about his decision to resign. He claimed that he is under extreme pressure and people from ruling group (he named Igor Kononenko, one of the eminence grises, formally Deputy Head of Block of Perto Poroshenko party) are demanding him to ap...

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Another Tough Year Ahead
UKRAINE - Report 02 Feb 2016
January was a relatively silent month, especially after an intense December, with tax changes and the budget 2016 on agenda.The public was primarily preoccupied with resurgent FX volatility, while politicians have been actively discussing the possibility of early parliamentary elections. In Ja...

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When China sneezes...
CHILE - Report 02 Feb 2016
January’s global market volatility had strong implications for the Chilean economy.Fortunately, it appears that at least some of the turmoil was an over-reaction. We will know the actual damage to the real economy later this year, when we have data for the first quarter. In November the Monthl...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Feb 2016
The country continues to suffer the effects of the worst recession in the past 30 years. The impossibility of putting the economy on a growth path without adopting reforms that reduce the upward trend of government spending and interrupt the unsustainable rise of the public debt, combined with th...

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Gallup-Hoy poll reiterates Medina's lead in voter preference but also that he's just above the 50% mark
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 01 Feb 2016
Today, the most reputed political survey in the country, Gallup-Hoy, released the results for the poll conducted on January 24-27. The results reiterate that President Medina leads the voter preference for the May elections with 51.8%. while 35.7% of those who responded expressed preference for L...

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Vortex
VENEZUELA - Report 01 Feb 2016
In the eight weeks since parliamentary elections handed the opposition a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, the government and opposition have tested each other’s limits and gone to the brink of total institutional breakdown. For now, both sides have an interest in preventing a full bl...

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Week of February 1
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 01 Feb 2016
Congress and the Superior Courts return to work. Aside from important votes in the legislature, votes for the new party leaders will be the focus this week. Representatives of the governing coalition meet with Ministers Nelson Barbosa, Jaques Wagner and Ricardo Berzoini. On Friday, February 5, th...

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A Challenging Climate for the Next Administration
PERU - Forecast 01 Feb 2016
The international and the domestic milieus are unpromising, in terms of helping Peru recover the dynamic growth it has enjoyed for the past decade. But our base scenario is moderately optimistic, given slightly rising growth—likely ending 2015 at around 3%—with better performance in mining and fi...

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Fiscal Policy: More Transparency, but the Situation is Difficult
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Feb 2016
Last week the fiscal policy data for December were announced, incorporating the payment of the “budget rollovers” (pedaladas) from previous years. The good news is that 2016 is starting without the hangover of liabilities from past years. However, although the fiscal statistics are now more trans...

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Both Growth and the Yuan Will Stabilize
CHINA - Report 01 Feb 2016
Real GDP was up just 6.9% in 2015, down 0.5 pps from 2014, and its lowest growth rate for 25 years. This is causing great consternation in international markets. Yet the weakening growth trend is diminishing. GDP in Q4 was up 6.8% y/y, down only 0.2 pps from Q1, while H2 growth was stable. The sl...

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Weekly Tracker: Jan 31- Feb 6
TURKEY - Report 31 Jan 2016
Peace talks in Geneva are finally underway, but expectations for a break-through to end the five-year war are very low. Meanwhile, Russia is cooperating with PYD, the Syrian Kurdish entity, to encircle Turkey from the South, a harbinger of more regional tensions to come. The campaign to put do...