Culmination of the Kremlin’s staging
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

We are approaching the culmination of the staging with Russian troops’ deployment. Russians have started evacuating civilians from occupied territories of Donbass but ordered all men of military age to stay in place. Also Russians are bringing heavy armor closer to the frontlines in Donbas. These...

Beyond the Russian threat, monetary tapering looms
UKRAINE · Report · 18 Feb 2022

The threat of a Russian invasion has dominated the headlines for several months now. Ukraine still sees Russia deploying more troops and combat support elements on its border as a big bargaining game, and Ukrainian officials do not expect Russia to undertake serious military action. However, the ...

Atilla Yesilada’s interview with Global Business Europe: inflation and popular sentiment, tourism, and outreach by Turkey to the GCC
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2022 · 2 responses

We present Atilla Yesilada's February 17, 2022 interview with daily business show Global Business Europe, in which he speaks about popular sentiment in the face of high inflation, the prospects for the tourism sector from a geopolitical standpoint, and the recent trip by President Erdogan to the ...

GDP up by 4.7% in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2022

The Russian GDP reached nearly R130.1 trln in 2021 and was up by 4.7%. These numbers are higher than was expected earlier, however, permanent upward revisions of selected historical data during the year prompted that surprises from Rosstat could not be ruled out. Still, the currently available qu...

GULF WEEKLY: Erdogan visits UAE, PIF gets Aramco equity, Kuwaiti ministers resign
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Feb 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia appears to have rebuffed US advances to boost production to ease market pressures. * Details of the Iran nuclear deal indicate a confidence-building stage, then sanctions' lifting by mid-year. * $80bn of Ara...

The president of the Central Bank meets with union representatives to discuss the salary raise issue, the government may announce its new leader in the Senate, and two new polls will be published next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2022

Roberto Campos Neto first met with union representatives on February 3, when they stated they would go on strike on March 9. President Jair Bolsonaro said he will decide on the issue by May, but hinted that all raises might have to wait until next year to avoid general discontent in the civil ser...

Shelling in Ukraine as possible provocations loom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2022

On February 17 Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels shelled each other in Eastern Ukraine. The Donetsk People's Republic stated that shelling had intensified dramatically. Kyiv accused rebels of shelling a kindergarten.The Kremlin called on Western countries to rein in Ukraine. On February 15 Putin sai...

1-week depo rate unchanged at 4.3% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2022

This note is just to keep things in order. The 1-week depo rate (= the effective sterilisation rate) was kept by the MNB unchanged at 4.3% for today's tender. This is no great story, as they said last month that they would raise the depo rate only once a month from there onwards, ideally right on...

Hope for the best, prepare for the best
TURKEY · Report · 17 Feb 2022

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% (simple), as expected. There is little change in the statement (link here), other than a stronger emphasis on the “liraization” strategy, introduced earlier, and a new sentence on the “significance” of “extending long-term Turkish lira investment...

The vote on the fuel bills was postponed to next week, Bolsonaro criticized the STF once again, and the STF should decide whether to maintain the restrictions on party advertisements in print and online newspapers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Feb 2022

The bill that deals with the ICMS, and PL 1472, which creates a Fuel Price Stabilization Fund and institutes an export tax on crude oil, is expected to be approved next week. The fuel price issue is putting pressure on several municipalities because of rising bus fares. President Bolsonaro stated...

Is it game over? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Feb 2022

The latest nationwide survey from Pulse Asia, one of the two reputable pollsters in the country, continues to show that if elections were held today, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. would win hands down.Conducted from January 19-24, the results show Mr. Marcos enjoying a 60% voter share, up from 53% in Dec...

​Cortizo nominates three directors to the Board of ACP: we expect their ratification by the Legislative
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

On Wednesday, the cabinet approved the nomination of three new directors of the Panama Canal Authority's Board of Directors. The Board consists of eleven members appointed for nine years each, rotating in groups of three, except for the Chairman and the representative of the Legislative Assembly....

The Russian market: between a rock and a hard place
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Feb 2022

The Russian markets have been hit strongly in recent months. The situation became even more colorful as inflation accelerated not only in Russia, but also globally. This added extra flavor and intrigue. As Russian inflation reached 8.7% in January, while that in the US hit 7.5%, not too different...

Does Kremlin start a face-saving withdrawal?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

On February 15 Russian Parliament addressed Vladimir Putin with a request to recognize occupied territories of Ukraine (Donbas and Luhansk) as independent states. This step might be a first move for a face-saving de-escalation of current tension. After raising the stakes so high Vladimir Putin co...

Robust growth supports monetary tightening in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

GDP growth in 2021 reached 8.1% (above expectations), with private consumption up 12%, investments expanded by 10%, and exports increased by 14%. This GDP growth is way above initial BoI estimate for 6.5% growth. GDP growth in Q421 reached 16.6%, with private consumption up 19% and exports up 26%...