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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lukashenka names two possible successors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 19 Lukashenka for the first time ever publicly discussed two potential replacement for him as a president. He named the ex health minister Uladzimer Karanik and the ex Interior Minister Yury Karayev. Both are under US sanctions.Why does Lukashenka think either of these men might be worth...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oil pulls back, Saudi GDP recovers in Q4, Bahrain breaches debt ceiling
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply after a five-month rally, and the IEA published its medium-term outlook. *Iran’s president criticized hardliners' obstructing efforts to secure US sanctions relief. There is still time for progress be...

Covid watch (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

Covid19 cases jumped again this week, with the case count reaching a record high of 7,103 today and the national weekly average rising by over 50%. The alert level is particularly high in Metro Manila which accounts for about half of the new cases and where hospital bed occupancy has been creepin...

Turkey's economy at the crossroads
TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2021

​Our live webinar features Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada, with guest speaker Professor Asaf Savas Akat, as they discuss Turkey's current economic and political situation as well as its long-term challenges​. This webinar was moderated by Tim Ash, Senior EM Sovereign Strategist, BlueBay Asset Man...

Armenian PM calls early election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 18 Nikol Pashinyan bowed to the opposition's demands for an election this year. The elections will be held in June 2021. President Sarkisian has agreed to allow early elections. Pashinyan tried to fire military chiefs who publicly castigated him after he said that some of the army's Russ...

Which will be faster: the virus or vaccination?
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Mar 2021

The domestic Covid situation now looks very serious indeed. The third wave of the epidemic, which started in the second half of January, has clearly overshadowed the previous second wave in every respect, and it continues to be spreading speedily for the time being. This forced the authorities to...

​A good step forward in an uphill battle
TURKEY · Report · 18 Mar 2021

The Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT surprised markets on the upside today by raising the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 200 bps to 19% (simple) versus consensus expectations – including our baseline -- of a 100 bps hike (see chart).

Russia withdraws ambassador from the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2021

On March 17 Russia recalled its ambassador from the United States. This was in protest at Biden's saying that Putin is a killer. Biden also said that Russia would ''pay a price'' for interfering in the US election and trying to help Trump win. US intelligence published a report concluding that Ru...

​Inflation y-o-y likely to start slowing from 2Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation from March 10 to 15 was at 0.1%, while in previous weeks it remained consistently at 0.2% w-o-w. Prices on a broader group of products started to fall (including some vegetable prices) which helped inflation to decelerate. GKEM Analytica in the previous notes attri...

Russia imposes app on Apple and threatens to block Twitter
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2021

As of April 1 Apple will pre-install this technology on its phones in Russia. The software was invented in Russia and allows users to send messages, access the internet, send emails, order food and taxis as well as being an anti-virus.Buyers will see a dialogue box urging them to install governme...

COVID-19 and poverty in Turkey
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2021

This Special Brief by our political analyst is an attempt to reconcile macro-economic data that shows an economy that has suffered minor-to-moderate harm from the year-long COVID-19 epidemic and the rather conflicting information coming out of numerous polls and anecdotal sources suggesting pover...

Is the Central Bank strong enough for Arauz?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Mar 2021

The legal actions conducted by Yaku Perez against the electoral results and the National Electoral Council already have a ruling from the Electoral Court, but are subject to appeal from Perez. Thus, the ruling has not been executed yet. In the unlikely event that Perez were to win the appeal, it ...

Industrial output is down in February y-o-y, but up m-o-m seasonally and calendar adjusted
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2021

As the Russian oil industry has still to comply with the OPEC+ deal, oil extraction remained suppressed in January and February (down by around 12% y-o-y in 2M21), while gas extraction was up by over 5% over the same period. As a result, the mining sector (including coal and metal ores) as a whol...

Election race is polarized, while recovery temporarily pauses
PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2021 · 2 responses

The presidential race has grown polarized, according to the most recent opinion polls. Although this is a surprise, in our January Forecast we suggested that this could happen during the last leg of the campaign. We described three possible scenarios: first, a strong winner emerging (with George...

Economics: Credit to the private sector starts its slide
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2021

All components of finance to the private sector have begun to show signs of weakening, just as had been expected. While commercial banking solvency indexes were still suggesting late last fall that the system is relatively well capitalized on average, some banks were in barely satisfactory ranges...

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