NEWS FLASH

***NEW*** GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC) COVERAGE ADDED TO GLOBALSOURC...

Country Insights

Gsp report report thumbnail
Political Insights: Week of March 31
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 31 Mar 2014
This week, the Petrobras CPI (Parliamentary Investigative Committee) will be the main focus in the Legislative. In the Senate, the opposition is pressuring Renan Calheiros to read the request for the creation of the CPI. The opposition is also trying to create a Joint Committee, made up of congre...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Three Cheers for Jokowi
INDONESIA - Report 31 Mar 2014
Executive Summary Optimism breeds optimism. That’s an apt analysis of events in Indonesia so far this year. Good news in January generated further optimism, which ultimately strengthened the currency. At this writing, the rupiah has strengthened to about Rp. 11,400, from Rp. 12,300 earlier in ...

Gsp report report thumbnail
On Growth and Trade Data
TURKEY - Report 31 Mar 2014
GDP: Headline solid, momentum slowing, quality low… GDP growth in Q4 was a somewhat stronger than expected 4.4%, y/y, though data pointed to a relative slowdown in q/q terms, to 0.5% (SAAR: 2%) from 0.8% a quarter earlier, and an even stronger near-2% pace during the first half of the year (Table...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Paradoxes and Perspectives
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 31 Mar 2014
There are two paradoxes in the Brazilian economy’s recent behavior. First, although in recent weeks the perspectives have worsened for inflation, the current account deficit and GDP growth, the Ibovespa and real have both been appreciating (the exchange rate now is below R$2.30/US$). Second, the ...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Elections: Reality and Perception
TURKEY - Report 31 Mar 2014
It is 17:00 in Turkey and the High Election Council is yet to announce even the preliminary results of the local elections. I still get two vote counts. In the first one, AKP scores 45.8%, compared to CHP’s 28%.The other count shows AKP at 43.3% and CHP at 26.7%.Note that the differences in betwe...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
Turkish elections—First Update: AKP won, but others did not lose
TURKEY - In Brief 30 Mar 2014
It is 6 am in Turkey and at the end of a sleepless night, I still have very little to report except that AKP has won, but CHP, MHP and BDP-HDP are grinning all the way home. From the moment the High Election Council lifted the embargo on reporting election results, the two authorized data dissemi...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
High Court suspends Isagén process
COLOMBIA - In Brief 28 Mar 2014
The State Council, one of Colombia's high courts, ruled in favor of temporarily suspending the process of selling the Nation's stake in Isagén. The ruling invokes the need to carry out a deeper analysis of the implications of the Central Government losing a future stream of dividends. So, even th...

Gsp report report thumbnail
A Slowing Economy
CHILE - Report 28 Mar 2014
Executive Summary Signs of moderation persist, pointing to an undeniable slowdown. According to the Central Bank, the monthly economic activity index (IMACEC) grew only 1.4% in twelve months in January, below market expectations. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted series fell 0.6% with respect to...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Dangerous Monetary Arithmetic
ARGENTINA - Report 28 Mar 2014
Executive Summary In the midst of yesterday’s downward revision of the preliminary 2013 GDP growth figure from 4.9% to 3.0%, we review some of the latest changes in macroeconomic policy. Over the past few years, in particular since Cristina Fernández de Kirchner took office, it has proven helpful...

Gsp report report thumbnail
El Salvador: Divided Country
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 28 Mar 2014
Executive Summary We don’t expect major changes in El Salvador’s economic performance this year. Growth will stay low, at about 2%. We also expect inflation to be low, though it will rise above the 0.8% of 2013.The fiscal and current account deficits will be relatively high, increasing the financ...

Gsp report report thumbnail
A Slowing Economy
CHILE - Report 28 Mar 2014
Executive Summary Signs of moderation persist, pointing to an undeniable slowdown. According to the Central Bank, the monthly economic activity index (IMACEC) grew only 1.4% in twelve months in January, below market expectations. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted series fell 0.6% with respect to...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
Anti-crisis package approved: IMF money to come shortly
UKRAINE - In Brief 28 Mar 2014
Yesterday IMF announced about positive results of technical mission. The Executive Board of the Fund was to decide regarding support to Ukraine. Though the message was positive, the main question was – what were the pre-conditions for the first wire? Given that the Cabinet promptly submitted to t...

Gsp report report thumbnail
The SARB Catches a Breath on its Hiking Journey
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 27 Mar 2014
Following a 50-basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate in January 2014, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to pause the interest rate hiking process. The repo rate will, for now, remain at 5.5% per year. Graph 1 Headline and Core Annual Inf...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Credit: Little Stimulus to Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Mar 2014
The total volume of credit to individuals has been growing in real terms by around 10% a year since the start of last year. However, this does not mean that credit has been propelling consumption. On the contrary, as will be shown in this note, except for a few modalities, the supply of credit to...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
Konda Poll Stoked Wednesday’s Turkish Rally
TURKEY - In Brief 27 Mar 2014
A few hours ago, one of Turkey’s premier polling agencies KONDA, released its local election survey conducted on 22-23 March—in contravention of High Election Council regs forbidding such activity. KONDA heralds a clear win for AKP with 46%. The cover letter presenting the poll is dated 26 March,...