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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s political future and the ANC’s leadership challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Feb 2022

The greatest threat facing South Africa and its future, that is, besides the obvious current threat of the Covid-19 pandemic facing the entire world, is poor governance and leadership misfit. The majority of South Africa’s population that had lived under Apartheid’s atrocious conditions suddenly ...

Germany closes RT and Russia closes German radio station
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

On February 2 Germany said that RT DE (Russia Today Deutschland) can no longer broadcast because its Serbian license does not authorize it to operate in Germany. RT DE was broadcast in the German language. Germany says that RT DE needs a German license. But why has Germany allowed the channel to ...

Inflation update: A new base year
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released today its new 2018-based consumer price indices, showing a 3% headline inflation rate for January. Although the headline rate looks relatively benign, prices were sharply higher month-on-month, rising 1% between December and January. Most of the ...

Peru's new Cabinet: First reactions
PERU · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022 · 1 response

On Tuesday night President Castillo took oath to the new Cabinet. Of the 19 members, President Castillo changed 10, including the Prime Minister and Finance Minister. The previous Cabinet reached a crisis point when President Castillo decided not to support his Interior Minister, Mr. Avelino Guil...

Budget 2022-23: A push for jobs through construction
INDIA · Report · 03 Feb 2022

One of the most important challenges facing the post-pandemic Indian economy is job loss due to the pandemic. In one initiative, the MSME sector, which employs a large number of people, is being given a helping hand through credit guarantees. In another, job creation is being addressed through a ...

PM Orbán has paid a visit to Moscow this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022

Now that weekly adjustments of the MNB sterilisation rate are off the agenda (at least for now), we can turn to other issues on Thursdays, when otherwise 1-week deposit tenders are held. So our note for today deals with PM Orbán's visit to Mr. Putin two days ago, or more broadly how Hungary's pri...

Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco talk about the tax issue, President Jair Bolsonaro indirectly criticizes former President Lula, and the public servants' salary issue continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2022

Lira recalled that the House voted on PL 2337/2021, which he believes has several merits, including achieving greater tax justice by revoking tax exemptions, instituting a tax on dividends, reducing the corporate tax, and updating the tax brackets for individuals including reducing or eliminating...

Inflation jumps further and has yet to peak
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2022

Consumer prices rose by 11.1%, m/m, in January, somewhat higher than the consensus forecast, with the 12-month rate rising further to 48.7% from 36.1%. Domestic-PPI rose by 10.4%, m/m, surging to a 12-month rate of 93.5% from 79.9% in December (Graph 1; Table 1).

The US deployed troops to Eastern Europe
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022

On February 1 Biden sent 3,000 troops to Romania, Germany and Poland. The US said this is in response to 100,000 Russian troops being on exercises near Ukraine and more Russian troops dispatched to Belarus. There will be major exercises in Belarus on February 10-20, but this is not unusual. The U...

Stronger-than-expected 2021 industrial output growth is a good start for 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022

The Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output increased by 5.3% in 2021, i.e., more than was expected earlier. On several occasions, it was mentioned in previous notes of this series that since mid-2020, every month, the Rosstat revises up previously published numbers. Generally, it is har...

​Minfin returns to the primary market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2022

Today, the Finance Ministry placed 7-year OFZ worth R74.7 bln at 9.6%. As a reminder, the government cancelled primary auctions during the past two weeks because of the high volatility. The return to the market was successful, and total demand exceeded R100 bln. Moreover, the last time Minfin man...

Congress returns to work, two new presidential polls are scheduled to be published, and the Central Bank to make a decision on the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2022

A statement from the Executive Branch will be read, highlighting its priorities for the year. On Thursday, Rodrigo Pacheco should meet with party leaders to discuss the agenda for next week. The possibility that the government could set the IPI tax rate to zero for all products generated negative...

British Prime Minister in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2022

On February 1 Boris Johnson visited Ukraine. He is there for talks and to signal support. This is also a welcome distraction from Johnson's domestic scandal and his terrible approval ratings.Johnson vowed to impose severe sanctions on Russia if there is any incursion at all. He suggested that a w...

Boric Completes his Cabinet
CHILE · In Brief · 01 Feb 2022

With the announcement on Tuesday of who the undersecretaries will be, president-elect Gabriel Boric has offered a much more complete picture of the government that’s taking shape, and the message is mixed.Whereas the cabinet announcement was greeted with enthusiasm, thanks in large measure to the...

UAE: The new corporate income tax will have ripple effects across the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Feb 2022

* The 9% tax could raise as much as 1.6% of GDP in incremental revenue, similar to the VAT. * A higher rate of up to 15% is expected to be applied to large multinationals, but has not been specified yet. * The change is motivated more by compliance with BEPS than the need for fiscal revenue. *...

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