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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Turkmenistan's president elected to its senate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2021

On March 28 elections were held for the newly created senate. No opposition candidates ran. Berdymukhamedov won 100% of the vote. The whole country voted in 2 hours at only 6 polling stations.

Sugar prices rising in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2021

On March 31 Izvestia reported that sugar factories have suspended sales and deliveries to supermarkets as the sugar sector waits for a state subvention. Food prices have gone up 7.7% in the last 12 months. That is the steepest annual rise since 2016. Living standards are at their lowest in 10 yea...

Goldman Sachs thriving in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2021

On April 2 Goldman Sachs announced that 2020 was a year of record profit for it in Russia. There were several major corporate deals.Investment banking, global markets and the asset management arm all grew significantly in 2020. The bank made a total profit of USD 9 million in Q1, Q2 and Q3 in 202...

Floundering in COVID-19’s Third Wave
UKRAINE · Report · 02 Apr 2021

The growing number of COVID-19 cases, the mounting numbers of virus-related deaths, and the return to a strict nationwide lockdown are the top issues these days, while the country’s vaccination effort rolls out at a snail’s pace. Still, it does not look as though Ukraine will face the dramatic ec...

A make-it-or-break-it year
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 Apr 2021 · 1 response

Let’s start with a caveat. In our almost two decades of jointly covering Turkey as the Global Source Partners Turkey team, we’ve never written a quarterly/forecast report amid this sort of uncertainty. As a compromise of sorts, since the key questions in most of our readers’ minds focus on the ve...

Russia’s 2020 GDP is revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2021

Rosstat announced that according to its second estimate, Russia’s GDP contracted by 3.0% instead of 3.1% reported previously. The result is not unexpected as earlier upward revisions of the 2018 and 2019 growth should have affected the 2020 data. At the same time, Rosstat finally released quarter...

Russia’s Pandemic/Political Update: Every Sandpiper Praises its Swamp
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2021

In the past four weeks, Russia’s daily average registered virus cases gradually descended from around 10K to around 9K, and were getting closer to 8K quite often in recent days. Overall, the trend was downward so far, albeit decelerating. The country’s epidemiological picture looked more favorabl...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ tapers, Saudi plans $3trn capex, Kuwaiti MPs boycott parliament
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will taper by 1.1m b/d and eliminate the 1m b/d in extra Saudi cuts by July. * Coronavirus continued to worsen across the region, with Qatar expected to go into lockdown. * There were hints of a softening in both US...

Russian payday loans are dangerously in arrears
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2021

On April 1 data released by Equifax showed that as of February 2021 some 5.4 million payday loans were behind. That is a huge number in a country of 145 million.USD 2.2 billion is owed to microfinance firms. These very short term loans have exorbitant rates of interest. A third of these loans are...

Italy declares 2 Russian diplomats PNG
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2021

On March 31 Rome expelled two Russian diplomats whom it assessed to be undeclared intelligence officers. This was because the police arrested an Italian naval commander allegedly in the act of handing over classified intelligence to a Russian military diplomat. Russia has seldom engaged in espion...

The economy steadily recovers as historical statistical data consistently revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s aggregate output in the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, which represent nearly two-thirds of GDP) was down by 2.3% y-o-y. This result looks good given the high base effect in February 2020 due to a leap year's additional da...

​3Cs of Armageddon
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

President Erdogan is battling three Cs of Armageddon, which like the proverbial Four Horsemen are riding hard to haunt him. He doesn’t have months to solve these three problems simultaneously. One month is the most this author allocates to him, during which he has to make very painful policy choi...

Quiet deals may lead to broader negotiations
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Mar 2021

A sharp spike in Covid-19 infections has forced Nicolás Maduro’s government to order a strict two-week lockdown for a period including Holy Week. The national hospital system has run out of Covid-19 beds and faces severe shortages of oxygen, medicine, and equipment. Yet the Maduro government, ...

Follow up to Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

In the referenced brief, I included two charts that apparently lost their format. I am including the charts here with my apologies.

Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A summary of different polls carried out during the past week and weekend shows that political trends for Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso changed after the debate that took place on March 21st.Around 63% of citizens from Quito and Guayaquil watched the entire debate from which 34% thinks Lasso w...

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