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Country Insights

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Medina Still Looks Unbeatable
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 26 Jan 2016
President Danilo Medina, who is running for reelection on the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) slate, holds a 30-point lead over his nearest challenger, Luis Abinader of the Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM), according to the latest polling data. Some 57% said they would support Medin...

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Week of January 25
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Jan 2016
For the first time in her second term, President Dilma Rousseff will summon the Economic and Social Development Council. Vice President Michel Temer visits four states ahead of the election for president of the PMDB. The government may announce stimulus measures for the oil and gas sector. The ma...

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Weekly Tracker: January 24-30
TURKEY - Report 24 Jan 2016
Turkey is at a very critical juncture with regards to political risk premia. There are a host of issues ranging from Syria to EU, some of which present new troubles to pile on top of the existing ones, and others, which may bring opportunities for markets and the economy. The politics section of ...

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Economics: Headwinds Stiffen as Volatility Builds
MEXICO - Report 21 Jan 2016
The first weeks of 2016 have been marked by a significant devaluation of the Mexican peso along with a similar erosion of value affecting most of the world’s emerging market currencies. In the retail market, the peso was selling Friday at 18.55 to the dollar, a development that alarmed Mexican au...

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Politics: Drug Trade and Policy Post ‘Chapo’
MEXICO - Report 21 Jan 2016
Politics in Mexico during the first two weeks of 2016 has been dominated by the arrest of drug kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, and his eventual extradition to stand trial in the United States. This week we will focus our analysis precisely on the consequences his latest arrest will have ...

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RUB sell-off may force CBR to increase key rate next week
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 21 Jan 2016
RUB weakness since beginning of the year (and especially today with RUB/USD reaching maximum of 85.99) raises questions whether CBR should (and would) take steps to mitigate the panic. Today CBR head called an emergency meeting with top commercial bankers to discuss stability of the banking secto...

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Has the Economy Reached “Rock Bottom”?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 21 Jan 2016
Prompted by reports in the specialized economics/business press, some clients have asked us if there are any signs that the cycle of contracting GDP is nearing its end. We show here that this is not what is shown by the various confidence indicators from FGV, or our leading indicator of GDP. T...

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MPC: Back to Square One
TURKEY - Report 19 Jan 2016
As expected, the Bank has left all interest rates unchanged today (Graph 1), most likely because of heightened volatility in global markets. As we had noted earlier, like in our last Tracker, regardless of what is meant by “simplification”, i.e. whether it is a cut of the O/N lending rate or the ...

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Week of January 18
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Jan 2016
With the goal of rekindling her relationship with social movements, President Dilma Rousseff may take part in the World Social Forum. Minister Nelson Barbosa travels to Davos for the World Economic Forum. The Central Bank decides whether to increase the benchmark interest rate (Selic). PMDB leade...

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Double-edged Sword
VENEZUELA - Report 18 Jan 2016
The Economic Emergency Decree is a political operation aimed at preventing the opposition from offering an alternative to Maduro’s political model and policies. Maduro intends to circumvent the "forced cohabitation" with the new opposition-controlled National Assembly by seeking powers to run the...

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Economic Activity: More Black Clouds on the Horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Jan 2016
Each new round of data on economic activity has been bringing new negative surprises. The most recent results are no different, and now the signs are that GDP in 2015 contracted by 4%, with a high probability that this outcome will be repeated in 2016.

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A Rating Upgrade in Late 2016?
HUNGARY - Forecast 18 Jan 2016
Hungary had a successful year in 2015, with robust, though decelerating, GDP growth, zero inflation and a stable currency, combined with growing employment, improving fiscal balance and a massive external income surplus. Supporting external factors were low oil prices, robust growth of foreign de...

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Weekly Tracker: January 17-23
TURKEY - Report 17 Jan 2016
Turkey bombed ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for the Istanbul terror strike, but unless Erdogan decides to take on the fundamentalist terror organization, the outlook for substantive measures is bleak. We expect more terror attacks from ISIS. PKK is about to be defeated in the urba...

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Economics: Prospects Mixed, But Lifted by the Recapture of a Drug Kingpin
MEXICO - Report 14 Jan 2016
Fall indicators have generally been mixed. Several released in December suggested a strengthening economic direction for Mexico, including a slight sequential firming of the leading indicator for October. This was the first positive result from this indicator for 14 months, largely reflecting a f...

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​Terror attack in Istanbul: This one is very different
TURKEY - In Brief 13 Jan 2016
The terror attack, attributed to an ISIS member, entering from Syria, was almost inevitable. The entire media knew and reported that more than 30 ISIS suicide bombers were loose in Turkey. The National Intelligence Agency and police were fully concentrated on catching Gulen operatives and HDP mem...