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Not a tipping point yet
VENEZUELA - In Brief 16 Jun 2016
On June 14, violent riots and looting were reported in Cumaná, capital of Sucre state, the poorest and most chavista state in Venezuela. This comes after more than 100 lootings across the country in recent weeks.Guided by the 1989 "Caracazo", which put governance to a severe test, conventional wi...

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Economics: Risks to Consumption Growth
MEXICO - Report 15 Jun 2016
Internal consumption, which has sustained its perch as the main growth driver of the Mexican economy, continues to expand at an extraordinarily fast pace through the second quarter of 2016, as evidenced by indicators such as the index of private consumption for the first quarter (it grew 4.7% yea...

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Politics: Political Map for 2018 Redrawn
MEXICO - Report 15 Jun 2016
The PRI entered this year’s campaign expecting to expand its absolute majority of state governors and gain momentum heading toward the 2018 election. Instead, on June 5 the PAN took seven of the 12 governorships in play as it jostled for the pole position ahead of the presidential contest. Th...

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Starting the Campaign
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 15 Jun 2016
The United Russia Party hosted primaries ahead of the September 2016 parliamentary elections. The primaries will result in significant changes in the party nomination list because the current list of party members was put together by the previous leadership of the Presidential Administration, and...

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Deterioration in the Current Account Balance Persists
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 14 Jun 2016 1 response
After easing to 3.1% during the second quarter of 2015 from 5.1% in the first quarter, the deficit on the current account as a percentage of GDP has been rising steadily since the third quarter of 2015, and registered 5.0% in the first quarter of 2016. The widening of the current account deficit ...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Jun 2016
The first month of the interim government of Michel Temer was marked by important victories, the most evident being the assembly of the economic team. The quality of the new team is unquestionable and extremely welcome. It includes people like Henrique Meirelles as finance minister, Ilan Goldfajn...

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Week of June 13
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Jun 2016
Interim President Michel Temer personally delivers to Congress the proposal that sets limits to increases in public spending. The idea is that public spending increases cannot outpace inflation. Another important issue is the trial of Eduardo Cunha in the Ethics Council. In the Senate, the Impeac...

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The First Steps of the Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Jun 2016
To achieve renewed growth while keeping inflation under control, Brazil needs various reforms, but by far the most important is in the fiscal area, to produce a return of primary surpluses large enough to lower the debt/GDP ratio. To start this adjustment, the government has chosen to avoid an im...

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Business cycle conditions
INDIA - Report 13 Jun 2016
The controversy about Indian GDP data has become acrimonious, as it has become linked up with the attempts of the administration to put its best foot forward at the Second Anniversary. The first data for the Jan-March 2016 quarter is now in hand. Conditions in the economy remain difficult. Despit...

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The Recent Inflation Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Jun 2016
After a brief period of deceleration, the 12-month IPCA increased again in May. This does not represent a trend reversal, indicative of renewed inflationary pressures. The tendency is for inflation to continue waning. Nevertheless, the probability is very high that the 12-month IPCA will close th...

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Week of June 12
TURKEY - Report 12 Jun 2016
AKP will wait for the leadership struggle in MHP to be sorted out before submitting its proposal for an Executive Presidency to the parliament, which means a tranquil month in politics. Of course, more terror attacks might be just around the corner. In Syria, conditions are worsening on Turkey...

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S&P says it will not upgrade Hungary to investment risk this year
HUNGARY - In Brief 12 Jun 2016 1 response
S&P's Moritz Kraemer said to Reuters in recent days the agency is unlikely to raise Hungary to investment risk from its current BB+/Stable sovereign LT FX rating on September 18, which will be its next revision date for the country and also the last one this year. The main factors behind this are...

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Keiko Fujimori Concedes Defeat
PERU - In Brief 10 Jun 2016
During a short public presentation, and accompanied by her huge 73 strong force elected to the new Congress, Fujimori recognised Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's triumph. In her speech, she sated that their stance will be that of a strong and watchful opposition. She announced her intention of submitting ...

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Growth Up, CAD Down, Story Steady
TURKEY - Report 10 Jun 2016
Today’s data releases were positive at the headline level, with a higher than expected growth in Q1 coupling with a lower than expected current account deficit (CAD) in April, but we do not see any reason to change our forecasts -- of slower growth and a widening CAD later in the year -- for now.

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When a surprise is no surprise: Bachelet’s mini cabinet-shuffle
CHILE - In Brief 09 Jun 2016
Michelle Bachelet replaced her Interior Minister on Wednesday. Traditionally, the Interior Minister is considered the cabinet’s first among equals, and indeed becomes acting president – referred to as vice-president – when the president is travelling (the rest of the time Chile has no such positi...