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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Will the opposition learn from its Barinas victory?
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jan 2022

The election of opposition member Sergio Garrido as governor of the state of Barinas on January 9 showed the opposition how powerful unity candidates can be, how efficacious local leaders can be, and how important it is at the regional level to build alliances perhaps not feasible on a national s...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2022

* Talks between Russia and the US over Ukraine did not end in agreement. * The US warned that Russia is preparing a false flag attack in Ukraine to provide an excuse for an invasion. Russia denies this. * Kazakhstan experienced huge scale disorder that resulted in at least 48...

Russian markets battered by Western war talk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

Since January 1 Russian companies have lost over USD 160 billion in value on the stock market. The RUB has slid to 80 to the USD. That is the RUB's lowest in years. Already high inflation has risen rapidly. The threat of severe Western sanctions has spooked the market.There is no doubt that Russi...

​Wiki- CHP
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

In our last Weekly, Yours Truly wrote an essay on internal criticism of the opposition Nation Alliance. While there are several shortcomings of the Alliance which is still a work in progress, lack of a common economic policy platform is the most glaring. While a six-party committee is currently w...

Notes from the frontline: what the Russia tension looks like from Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

It looks like a potential Russian offensive is creating more nervousness in Western media than here in Ukraine. For Ukrainians a Russian invasion already started eight years ago and further attempts to occupy more territories of Ukraine or install a puppet regime by force have been just a matter ...

Dusting off output gap calculations
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jan 2022

There is no guarantee that an economy with excess capacity will grow. Leaving aside 2020, Argentina has not systematically grown over the last 10 years, despite significant excess capacity. But the currently estimated output gap of approximately 20-24%, in combination with rising commodity prices...

Economics: Lower GDP forecast as sectoral activity is likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jan 2022

Following up on last week’s analysis of aggregate demand components that have been decelerating in recent months and factors that might impede their expansion in the current year, we are turning our attention to the recent performance of the Mexican economy’s main sectors and are introducing our ...

Political uncertainties in the presidential election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

This is the last week of recess in the National Congress, which returns to work on February 2. Left-wing parties discuss the formation of a party federation in support of former President Lula's (PT) candidacy for the Planalto Palace. Two new voting intention polls on the upcoming elections will ...

Global Inflation – Control and Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

There are no more doubts: the current global inflation does not derive from a series of independent shocks, whose effects will disappear without the need for actions by the central banks. And the rupture of supply chains is only a small part of the problem, whose main cause is the monetary stimul...

Russian macro: the 2022 budget to be amended as revenues soar
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

In contrast to the planned deficit, the federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.5 trln, (i.e., below 0.4% of GDP) in 2021 amid soaring revenues, and the 2022 budget is already in question once again. The 2021 budget remained in surplus despite the fact that expenditures have been raised sign...

Turkey Covid Watch - January 24, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2022

We have decided to resume our biweekly Covid Watch (CW) because of the rising number of cases, which had stabilized at just under 20K around mid-November when we put the CW on holiday. The cases have begun to rise in late December, and have been fluctuating around 68K, on average, in the past cou...

The CBR/ Minfin duo suspends FX interventions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

Today Central bank announced it is suspending daily FX purchases on the open market. These interventions are stipulated by the fiscal rule. Geopolitical tensions created significant pressure over the Russian assets since the start of the year. Since the beginning of the year the 5Y CDS contracts ...

Germany adopts less belligerent tone towards Russia as US evacuates diplomats from Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

On January 20 the head of the German Navy was fired for saying Russia will not attack Ukraine. He also said all Russia wanted and deserved was respect. Ukraine expressed its dismay and said the admiral was like a Nazi occupier.Germany has lobbied against cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system. ...

The 2022 Federal Budget was published in today’s Official Gazette, this is the last week of the congressional recess, and left-wing parties should ask for an extension of the party federation deadline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

Last week, President Bolsonaro said he was forced to veto R$ 2.8 billion in the budget, but a total of approximately R$ 3.1 billion should be vetoed, specifically to cover mandatory expenses. This is the last week of recess for Congress, which resumes activity on February 2. The pandemic will con...

Politics: Much at stake in 2022 state elections for both governing and opposition forces
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jan 2022 · 1 response

The significance of next June’s elections resides in the elements it can provide us to assess the Morena party’s performance at the ballot box two years ahead of the next presidential vote. The few polls that are public and relatively reliable suggest at this point that Morena will win five out o...

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