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The seventh day of war: the offensive has exhausted
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

Over the last day there were no big changes from the North. Belorussian army did not move to Lviv and situation around Kyiv has stabilized after all big military groups of invaders have been destroyed. The main trouble for now are roaming remains of Russian army near Kyiv which are trying to get ...

UK sanctions Belarus as Russian oligarchs call for peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

On March 2 London said it was sanctioning four senior Belarusian Army officers and two military enterprises. The United Kingdom said this was because of Belarus's abetment of the invasion of Ukraine.Russian soldiers invaded Ukraine from Belarus. Ukraine claims that Belarusian soldiers have invade...

Economic isolation of Russia intensifies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

On March 1 Apple, ExxonMobil, Disney, WarnerMedia, Ford, BP, Shell, Amex, Mastercard, Visa, American Express and Boeing announced that they are leaving Russia or freezing their business there. ExxonMobil was working on the Sakhalin oilfield in the Pacific Ocean. It has operated there since 1995. ...

​Alberto Fernández's opening speech at the Congress
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

Today, at the opening session of Congress President Alberto Fernández (AF) gave the traditional Address to the Nation, which is always worthwhile analyzing. As usual for such an occasion, AF was accompanied by Vice President Christina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK), in her role as President of the S...

Forint, BUX sharply down on Ukraine, verbal intervention by MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

Apparently, president Putin has decided to break Ukraine's resistance at all cost. At least this is the markets' conclusion from today's war events. Hungarian assets are hit hard: the BUX fell 10%, OTP fell 18%, and the forint dropped to 379.6 against EUR, the weakest ever level, earlier today. A...

Canada bans Russian crude
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

On February 28 Ottawa made the announcement and said it was to penalize Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. Canada bought only USD 170 million of Russian oil 2021 so the ban will have minimal impact on both countries. Canada has large oil reserves of its own.What would make a big difference is if...

The sixth day of war: Russians target more civilian deaths
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

We have no big changes at the front. Ukrainian army destroyed several more groups of Russian forces which targeted to take Kyiv into circle. Also Ukraine received 70 fight airjets from the EU countries to cover the sky and the jets promptly joined actions already yesterday. A big change that we o...

Belarus referendum allows Russian nukes and extends Lukashenka's power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

On February 27 the vote was held. The result was yes to the reform package. It was claimed that 65% of people voted. This is hard to believe given the apathy of the electorate. The reforms allow Lukashenka to seek more terms in office. They also give him immunity from prosecution for life.The ref...

​“Historic” Opposition Declaration: Will it sell in Yozgat?
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Turkey’s six leading opposition parties sans pro-Kurdish Rights HDP gathered in a room to sign a Declaration for Democracy (the Protocol), with the lieutenants reading passages from the 19 page document (link to Turkish version is here). First, I classify the promises in three categories:Those re...

Economics: 2021 GDP numbers project a weak 2022
MEXICO · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Economic news this month confirmed the extent to which the economy is tending to stall. Friday’s GDP report for the fourth quarter proved to be only marginally more positive than the preliminary estimate Inegi issued at the beginning of the month, which had fallen almost three percentage points s...

Politics: Latest report from the federal audit authority belies AMLO’s anticorruption claims
MEXICO · Report · 28 Feb 2022

At a time when stories such as the “Gray House” once rented by the president’s son and the debate on corruption within the López Obrador’s government dominate the political agenda, the Superior Auditor of the Federation (ASF) presented the results of its audit of public spending for calendar year...

Signs of monetary and fiscal expansion at last
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau only announced price, financial and PMI data in February. Producer prices grew more slowly. PPI rose 9.1% y/y, down another 1.2 pps from December. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 8.85% y/y, while CPI growth a...

​Ukraine implications for the Gulf update – diplomacy, energy and investments
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2022

As the invasion continues and the global response intensifies, Gulf states are among a core group of countries that have strong ties to both the West and Russia. While the crisis has created benefits and opportunities for them as energy exporters, it has also brought complications for their inves...

Russian macro: a Sisyphean task
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Feb 2022

As the Western sanctions continue to mount, it now becomes clear that Russia’s ruling elite didn’t consider various scenarios of how the attack on Ukraine could develop and bounce back on Russian citizens. Such an outcome was difficult to expect as the attack seemed so irrational and dangerous fo...

Labor market improvement hides a lower participation rate, and a new name with previous experience enters the political arena.
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

The final GDP results for 2021 will be published soon. We expect a growth rate between 13% and 15%, the latter hinted by Minister Alexander in his February interview with the daily newspaper La Estrella. If confirmed by INEC, the economy will be on a path to recovery from the 18% drop of 2020. ...

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