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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jun 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jun 5
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jun 27
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jun 4
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A new political cycle has opened up
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Feb 2022
Once again, the Venezuelan political conflict is being reconfigured. The view now is widespread that a new political cycle has opened up and the 2024 presidential elections are the key milestone. The opposition is undergoing reconfiguration, in a process that’s chaotic but will lead to the fo...
Bond issuance reduced in March due to robust fiscal data
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022
The MoF reduced the weekly bond issuance to 1.0bn ILS in March from 1.15bn in February on the back of very positive fiscal data in January and expectations that the deficit will undershoot target. Bond redemptions will reach 3.1bn in March, close to the level of issuance of 4.0bn. Following the s...
Ukraine calls up reserves as Russia urges its citizens to leave Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022
On February 23 Ukraine announced the call-up of part-time military personnel. They can be activated for up to 1 year. The State Security Council has suggested a 30-day state of emergency but it is up to the Ukrainian Parliament to decide this.President Zelensky says he still wants a diplomatic so...
Rapid growth, high inflation
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Feb 2022
This month’s story is about the substantial upside surprises in the latest GDP and inflation reports. These need to be looked at in the light of the upcoming election, as the Fidesz government is aiming to enjoy the positive public mood created by its heavily procyclical fiscal and income policie...
US and EU sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022 · 3 responses
On February 22 the US announced new sanctions on Russia. They will effectively prevent Russia from borrowing new money or refinancing debt. However, the US stopped short of cutting Russia off from SWIFT (on which it does not have a unilateral say) or sanctioning Putin personally. The US and UK ci...
The IMF starts second review on Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022
The IMF starts an online mission for the second review of the current program, according to the Ukraine’s representative at the IMF. One of the most trouble-making point is the still delayed appointment of the head the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO). Recall, the competitio...
Sovereign Debt: New Sanctions will cover secondary market, but only for newly issued paper
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022 · 1 response
Western countries continue to introduce new sanctions after the decision of Russian authorities to recognize the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk republics. Yesterday and today both US and EU authorities announced a new portion of restrictions regarding sovereign debt. To remind,...
Guedes outlines a series of measures to stimulate the economy, Ciro Gomes and Bolsonaro speak at the CEO Conference and the OAB files a case against the court-ordered payments constitutional amendment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2022
One of the measures outlined by Guedes is to reduce the rate of the Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI) by 25%. There should also be a new access-to-credit program for small and medium-sized companies, and access should be granted to FGTS resources for people to pay off debts. At the CEO Confere...
Kilicdaroglu throws hat into ring, makes new promises
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022 · 2 responses
Main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu seems to be smelling victory. In an extended interview with Reuters, he stated his readiness to step forward as the joint presidential candidate of the 6-party opposition alliance. He is also developing an economic and diplomacy platform to run on. As our...
Ukraine crisis is a gas opportunity for Qatar, a diplomatic challenge for the UAE and a spur for OPEC+ tapering
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Feb 2022 · 1 response
* OPEC+ is more likely to boost volumes, particularly in May, when higher baselines come into effect for UAE, Saudi and Kuwait. * Qatar has a huge opportunity to sign long-term LNG contracts on beneficial terms. Its North Field expansion will deliver more gas than Nord Stream 2. * The UAE faces...
Politics: AMLO’s continuing missteps over “Gray house,” his worst political crisis to date
MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2022
The scandal that first broke in late January over a luxury Houston home rented by the son and daughter-in-law of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to take a toll on AMLO's political credibility as bumbling attempts at explaining away the issue turn to what appear to be increasingly ...
Economics: First monetary policy decision of the year eases uncertainty amid heightened inflation
MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2022
The mid-month release of the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for January showed 12-month inflation running at 7.07% alongside a continuing and especially troubling resurgence of core inflation (6.21%) that is being powered by strong gains in the goods index (7.86%). It is obvious at this po...
Conspiracy is in the air
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Feb 2022
More than one political analyst and/or well-informed journalist is talking about the evident intent of UNES, Social Christians and the nine dissident members of Pachakutik to take over the Assembly, appointing new authorities and destabilizing the government of President Lasso, as well. As twe...
Bracing for change
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 22 Feb 2022
Several forthcoming changes cloud the outlook for 2022. The major change domestically is the midyear change in government that introduces some degree of policy uncertainty. The major change externally is the impending US Fed policy rate hike that raises risks for emerging markets, especially thos...
Evangelical vote targeted and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022
The Senate attempts to vote on fuel-related bills. At the CCJ of the Senate, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Roberto Rocha (PSDB-MA), submits his report. Minister Edson Fachin is the new president of the TSE. Four new presidential election polls will be published. This week's Talkin...