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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Signs of monetary and fiscal expansion at last
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau only announced price, financial and PMI data in February. Producer prices grew more slowly. PPI rose 9.1% y/y, down another 1.2 pps from December. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 8.85% y/y, while CPI growth a...

​Ukraine implications for the Gulf update – diplomacy, energy and investments
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2022

As the invasion continues and the global response intensifies, Gulf states are among a core group of countries that have strong ties to both the West and Russia. While the crisis has created benefits and opportunities for them as energy exporters, it has also brought complications for their inves...

Russian macro: a Sisyphean task
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Feb 2022

As the Western sanctions continue to mount, it now becomes clear that Russia’s ruling elite didn’t consider various scenarios of how the attack on Ukraine could develop and bounce back on Russian citizens. Such an outcome was difficult to expect as the attack seemed so irrational and dangerous fo...

Labor market improvement hides a lower participation rate, and a new name with previous experience enters the political arena.
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

The final GDP results for 2021 will be published soon. We expect a growth rate between 13% and 15%, the latter hinted by Minister Alexander in his February interview with the daily newspaper La Estrella. If confirmed by INEC, the economy will be on a path to recovery from the 18% drop of 2020. ...

Bracing for change, P.S.
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

When we issued our Forecast report on February 22, we had not expected that the risk we warned about that would be “disruptive to growth everywhere,” i.e., a war in Ukraine, would happen just two days later. The still unfolding event, with its immediate outsized impact on global commodity prices,...

Past performance is no guarantee of…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2022

GDP increased by 9.1%, y/y, in Q4, broadly in line with expectations, and up from 7.5% in Q3, while sequential (q/q) growth (in calendar- and seasonally adjusted terms) slowed to 1.5% in Q4, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter (Graph 1). It is worth highlighting that the output gap was stil...

Growing relatively well
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Although less than predicted, Indonesia saw a small spike in its economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Indonesian economy in Q4 2021 reported an increase of 5.02% year over year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 1.06%. This rate of growth was​ actually...

The BoI prepares markets for a tightening cycle
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Feb 2022

1. We have revised our inflation forecast upwards for the coming months due to higher energy prices and a somewhat weaker shekel. 2. The Bank of Israel shifted to a tightening bias last week, preparing markets for tightening in the coming months. 3. We expect three hikes in the coming ...

The fifth day of war: the front has stabilized
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

The expected offensive of Belorussian army so far did not come to reality. Ukrainian army destroyed two more big groups of Russian forces that tried to take Kyiv into circle. But overall it looks like the fights have eased by now and the front has stabilized. If Russians do not bring more fresh b...

Associates of former Kazakh President jailed or removed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

On February 25 Darigha Nazarbayev, the daughter of former President Nazarbayev, resigned from Parliament. She had once been chairwoman of the senate and seen as a possible president herself one day.On February 19 the former Defense Minister Murat Bektanov was put into jail for a 2-month pre-trial...

Turkey eager to normalize relations with Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

There is some good news coming from the former USSR! On February 24 talks took place in Vienna. Both sides said the talks were optimistic but no clear outcome was reached.On February 23 the President of Turkey said he would like to restore diplomatic relations and trade. Special envoys have been ...

The BoI prepares markets for a tightening cycle
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

The BoI is clearly signaling for an imminent hike Rates remained stable last week, but the FG was revised significantly to suggest tightening “in the coming months”. This more hawkish bias is due to both higher-than-expected inflation in December and January and very robust growth numbers. The la...

Speaking of unstable equilibria
TURKEY · Report · 27 Feb 2022

The Turkish media is mesmerized by the heartbreaking scenes of war in Ukraine, which means domestic politics has been relatively quiet during the week. President Erdogan, too, seems to have grasped that the Russia-Ukraine War could deal a big blow to the already shaky New Economic Model. Indee...

The 4th day of the war: UN reported 368 thousand refugees from Ukraine so far
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

These people have fled mainly to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova. Hungary's share is 62k refugees cumulatively today.Receiving refugees near the border is starting to cost government money, but the costs are very substantially lower than one would think on the basis of arrival numb...

Fourth day of war: Kyiv mincer
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

Russians throw more and more battalions on well prepared positions of Ukrainian army near Kyiv. Dozens of videos witnessing huge losses of Russian forces. This one was recorded today in Bucha, the suburb of Kyiv. For the last night heavy shelling of Kyiv was expected but the night was relatively ...

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