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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Third day of war: Putin’s offensive was stopped
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Feb 2022 · 3 responses

We were unable to give any reports on the developments around Russian’s offensive since we were pretty busy bringing our beloved people out of the action area. Now we are in relatively safe place if any place could be safe on these days in Ukraine. I plan to give some personal observations based ...

A livelier rebound
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Feb 2022

Costa Rica showed a higher-than-expected rebound of economic activity in 2021, driven by a favorable external evolution, particularly in the United States, the country’s major economic and trading partner. Perspectives for the outlook horizon will be conditioned by the presidential election outco...

The 2nd day of the war: EU sanctions, refugees from Ukraine
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022

The EU Council met last night, adopting various sanctions against Russia. The details are far not fully known yet, but the outlines suggest that even though the sanctions are significant, they fell short of what the anti-Russian lobby was hoping for.Following the meeting, PM Orbán went public imm...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Russia’s war in Ukraine hit the markets badly all across the board. The impact on the economy is yet to be seen as consumer behavior may change again amid a shock the nation (at least part of it) felt on February 24. The already imposed sanctions on Russia will obviously squeeze the country’s fin...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC urged to act on Ukraine, Iran deal looked close, Saudi bank moots major acquisition
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil and gas prices surge and then fall back to near pre-invasion levels. * Ukraine lobbies Qatar, and the US lobbies Saudi and UAE (the latter on a pending UNSC vote). * There was more optimistic talk about the Iran deal...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may impact agribusiness in Brazil, the STF judges whether retirees can use all their social contributions, and there will be no legislative activity next week due to Carnival
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2022

The increase in the price of commodities, such as wheat and soybeans, in addition to oil, can put pressure on inflation in Brazil. There are supply concerns about important production chains in industries such as semiconductors, vehicles and medicines. The problem has been used by senators to def...

Webinar Replay: China Outlook for 2022 featuring Michael Pettis
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 Feb 2022

Click on our Calendar Events page to watch the replay of our February 23, 2022 webinar with GlobalSource Partners' China Financial Analyst Michael Pettis as he interprets the recent GDP data and its implications for China's monetary policy and its economic rebalancing over the medium term.

China’s proxy stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

China is avoiding a direct fiscal or monetary stimulus in favor of small-scale stimulus through proxies. In fact, Beijing is purposely withdrawing support for the property sector to avoid inflating the bubble. This may be inadequate to stimulate the economy to the degree that many investors are e...

Russian troops on the edge of Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022

On February 25 President Zelensky said the Russian Army is deliberately targeting civilians in the Ukrainian capital. There are constant explosions. Russian paratroopers now control Gomostel Airfield near Kyiv: Russia claims to have destroyed 11 airfields. Ukraine stated 137 of its military were ...

Fighting at air base outside Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022

On February 24 Russian troops arrived at the Antonov Air Base by helicopter, the Ukrainian Army said. Kyiv is 110km from the Belarusian Border. It is worrying for Ukraine that Russian troops have penetrated so deeply so fast. Some pundits predict that Kyiv will fall in 48 hours. There are others ...

Sober government communication on Ukraine, orderly MNB rate hike today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022

The MNB carried out the expected 30 bps sterilisation rate hike today, raising the 1-week deposit rate to 4.6% at this week's deposit tender. The MNB did not react to the forint's significant weakening, caused by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the fall of EURUSD, during the day.The govern...

Belarus not fighting in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022

On February 24 Lukashenka stated that his armed forces are not participating in the fighting in Ukraine. Thousands of Russian troops are in Belarus for a military exercise earlier this month. Some Russian soldiers crossed the border into Ukraine on February 24.Belarus conformed that it was inform...

Senate postpones vote on fuel bills, the STF resumes judgment of the increase in the party fund and Bolsonaro’s participation in the CEO Conference yesterday had repercussions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2022

The Senate postponed the vote on the bills dealing with fuel until March 8. The governors do not want the bill on the ICMS, and the government is resisting the bill that deals with the price stabilization fund. Further changes to the text may be made. In a very long vote, the rapporteur of the pa...

Budget 2022 showcases a commodity tax bonanza, presents considerable social spend, and an improved debt trajectory for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Feb 2022

As he delivered his 2022 State of the Nation Address (SONA), President Ramaphosa made it clear that South Africa is currently facing “extreme fiscal constraints”, and this is the backdrop against which Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday delivered Budget 2022. Throughout his speech, the M...

Russia invades Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022 · 1 response

On February 24 Russian forces crossed the border into what even Russia recognizes as Ukrainian territory. There have been artillery bombardments, air strikes and missile strikes. The Ukrainians claimed to have shot down Russian fighter jets. Russian troops advanced from Russia and Belarus. This w...

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