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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No surprise at the 1-week deposit tender today: the interest rate went up to 4.3%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

Just as we predicted two days ago, the 1-week deposit rate was raised by the MNB by 30 bps today. No great achievement on our part: as the Monetary Council raised the base rate by 50 bps on Tuesday, and they said that the two rates will need to converge from now on, it was quite easy to find out ...

The Confax meets today to decide on ICMS tax freeze, the Banco Modal poll yesterday had surprising results, and the Superior Electoral Court published the time allotment for free party advertising on TV and radio
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2022

The Confaz meets today to decide on whether to extend the ICMS tax freeze for another 60 days. In a statement, 21 governors asked that, within this period, structural solutions to stabilize the prices of fuel be established, considering the terms of Bill No. 1472 from 2021. The Banco Modal poll w...

Hopeful forecasts, dubious strategies
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jan 2022

The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2022 by 11.4 percentage points (pps) to 23.2% (midpoint of 18.6% and 27.8%) from 11.8% in the October report. The 2023 forecast was also raised, albeit slightly, by 1.2 pps to 8.2%. The B...

NATO rejects Russian demands and asks for diplomacy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

On January 6 NATO said it would not rule out Ukraine and Georgia being admitted nor would it remove troops and weaponry from countries that joined NATO since 1999.NATO says there are up to 147,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian Border. But "near" in this case can mean hundreds kilometers away....

Private consumption growth slows in Q421
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

Private consumption slowed in Q421, with credit card purchases up only 1.5% saar following growth of 8.6% in Q321. This is due mostly to the outbreak of the Omicron virus towards the end of the quarter (although purchases of services did increase by 12% saar in Q421). December witnessed a 2.3% m/...

4Q GDP rose 7.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

As we expected, the Philippine economy left 2021 with a bang, growing 7.7% yoy in 4Q and sustaining a 3.1% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth. GDP growth was led by household consumption, with increased vaccination, fewer Covid-19 infections and easing of restrictions propelling a 7.5%...

Two important events to follow in February: the GAFI evaluation and the nomination of board directors to the Panama Canal Authority. Contagions increase but pension reform stalls.
PANAMA · Report · 26 Jan 2022

We expect in February the decision regarding the evaluation of the country's advance (or lack thereof) in matters related to the prevention of money laundering. In a face-to-face preliminary meeting, Panama will present what the government considers to be its recent improvements in legislation re...

Interim Armenian President takes over
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2022

On January 23 Alen Simonyan became head of state. The 42 year old is the President of the National Assembly. As in most former Soviet countries, if the presidency falls vacant the head of the legislature fulls this post until a substsantive president can be elected.Simonyan is a member of Civic C...

The OECD invites Brazil to join the organization, public servants continue to press for salary raises, and Alckmin is close to a deal to run as Lula’s Vice President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2022

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has officially invited six countries, including Brazil, to begin the process of joining the organization. The Brazilian government has committed to zeroing the IOF rate by 2029. The Secretary of International Economic Affairs at the...

GDP likely to grow by about 5% in 2022
CHINA · Report · 26 Jan 2022

GDP rose 8.1% y/y in 2021, and increased 10.6% from 2019. Growth rates across quarters in 2021 were similar, and growth was only slightly higher in Q2. But industrial growth declined. This indicates further growth pressure, especially when Omicron outbreaks are leading to frequent city closures, ...

New forecast: a lot to change in 2022-2023
HUNGARY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2022

The summary of our new forecast for the next two years is as follows: continuing but less lethal Covid, high growth and high inflation fueled by extremely generous election campaign policies this year, a safe Fidesz win in April, forceful fiscal stabilization from H2, followed by moderating growt...

President of Armenia resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2022

On January 23 Armen Sarkisian resigned in a shock move. The presidency is a mainly symbolic office. Sarkisian expressed his frustration that he was not able to do more, especially considering the difficulties his country has been through 2020.The 69-year-old had openly criticized Prime Minister P...

Omicron watch (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2022

Data tracking the latest Covid-19 wave in the country show that new infections have started to drop, particularly in Metro Manila. Samples sequenced by the Philippine Genome Center in January traced almost all the cases to the Omicron variant. Although infections may have peaked in the nation’s c...

The MNB sent out a strong message, raised the base rate above expectation today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

The Monetary Council raised the base rate by 50 bps, to 2.9% today, more than the 30 bps hike expected by the broad analyst consensus. Simultaneously, the interest rate corridor was also adjusted upwards by 50 bps, to 2.9-4.9%, creating further room to increase the 1-week deposit rate from the cu...

The PEC on Fuels may be submitted to Congress this week, deputies discuss overturning Bolsonaro’s vetoes on the Federal Budget, and the PT caucus in the House tries to attack Sergio Moro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2022

The PEC on Fuels would allow federal taxes and the ICMS tax on fuel to be reduced or even zeroed. The proposal would have an impact of R$ 27 billion on the tax collection of states and municipalities. Truck drivers may put pressure on the government and Congress to find a solution for the high pr...

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