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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Central Bank and The Red Queen Syndrome
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

With the one-year ex ante real interest rate at (or slightly above) 7%, nobody can accuse the Central Bank of being lenient with inflation. However, it is necessary to recognize that as of the start of the pandemic, the Bank has been behind the curve, allowing expectations to become unanchored. T...

The search for the youth vote and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

This will be another short week in Congress due to the holiday on Thursday (Tiradentes). The House will discuss the leadership of the standing committees. The Provisional Measure on Auxílio Brasil may also be put to a vote. The Senate may vote on a bill dealing with cryptocurrencies. The privatiz...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for a good year ahead
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Apr 2022

The Kazakh National Bureau of Statistics published the 1Q22 economic indicators, and it looks as though the Kazakh economy was doing quite well during this period. The so-called "short-term economic indicator" (covering around 70% of the country’s economic activity) was up by 6.5% y-o-y in 1Q22. ...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for a good year ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

The Kazakh National Bureau of Statistics published the 1Q22 economic indicators, and it looks as though the Kazakh economy was doing quite well during this period. The so-called "short-term economic indicator" (covering around 70% of the country’s economic activity) was up by 6.5% y-o-y in 1Q22. ...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 18, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 18 Apr 2022

Cases continued to drop dramatically in the past two weeks, declining to 5.1K for the week ending Sunday, or 62% drop from two weeks ago. In the light of recent developments, we’ve decided to discontinue our bi-weekly Covid Watch for now, with a view to providing occasional updates in our Sunday ...

The unreported burst of inflation in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Apr 2022

According to the Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV), monthly inflation slowed in March to 1.4 percent from February’s 2.9 percent. According to our own data, by contrast, inflation accelerated—to 4.3 percent. The burst was driven by an expansion in the M1 money sto...

This will be a short week due to the holiday on Thursday, Bolsonaro should appoint two new Central Bank directors, and the government’s proposal to grant a 5% raise to all public servants has failed to ease tensions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

A session has been scheduled in the House for today starting at 5 p.m. to analyze Provisional Measure (MP) 1,076, which deals with the Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400, and MP 1,077/21, which creates the Internet Brazil Program. The new director of Financial System Organization and Resolution, R...

The distribution of first quarter growth is worrying, but not surprising
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Apr 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The National Bureau of Statistics reported this morning that China’s first quarter GDP was 4.8 percent higher than it was last year and 1.3 percent higher than the last quarter of 2021 (5.3 percent annualized). * While this was well above very ...

March’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Apr 2022

1. March’s CPI surprised on the downside, mostly due to the surprisingly soft increase in travel abroad costs. 2. We expect this item to support a stronger CPI print in April (0.8% m/m) and beyond. 3. We currently expect inflation to reach 2.8% in the next 12 months. 4. March’s CP...

Russian missile strikes on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2022

On April 18 missiles hit several Ukrainian cities, especially Lviv. This type of attack allows Russia to inflict losses without taking any risk itself. Ukraine does not have missiles with the range to enable them to retaliate.Fighting continues in Mariupol. Russia claims to have taken virtually t...

US says Belarus breaking export control ban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2022

On April 13 the Commerce Department said 7 planes (all Boeing 737) used by Belavia had been flown despite this being banned by the US. The US has banned companies anywhere in the world from refuelling the planes, repairing them, selling them spare parts or servicing them in any way.The planes hav...

Kazakh ban on wheat exports means hunger for her neighbors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2022

On April 16 the announcement was made. Other Central Asian countries buy 90% of their wheat from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan buys wheat from Russia and re-exports some of it. Russia is the world's main exporter. Moscow has banned wheat exports to fellow members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Th...

Same old, same old
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2022

Thanks to her “politically correct” stance on the war, Turkey had just started working on her terrible image, but new allegations of narco-trafficking, inmate maltreatment and human rights violations have now cropped up. While the veracity and impact of these on diplomatic relations require furth...

Russia calls on Mariupol to surrender
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2022

On April 17 Moscow said that if the city surrenders today the lives of its defenders shall be spared. But prisoners of wars' lives are guaranteed anyway under the Geneva Convention. Russia claims to control almost the whole of Mariupol. It has astonished most pundits that Mariupol has held out so...

March’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2022

March’s CPI surprises on the downside Inflation in March increased by 0.6% m/m (expectations were for 0.8%, ours as well) and by 3.5% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation (excluding energy and fresh produce) increased by 3% y/y (similar to last month), with core inflation excluding governm...

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