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Belarus to hold referendum on constitution
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

On January 20 it was announced that a referendum shall take place on February 27. If the proposals are passed (which is virtually certain) then Lukashenka will be able to rule until 2035. It would make him immune from prosecution. Parliament would be degraded and the All Belarus People's Assembly...

Analysts expect a base rate increase from tomorrow's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

The monthly rate-setting meeting is due tomorrow. Importantly, the 1-week deposit rate (= the effective sterilisation rate) will not be a subject for decision, as that one is set at the weekly depo tenders on Thursday's. So what is at stake for the upcoming meeting is three things: (a) the base r...

Some deceleration due to Omicron
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Jan 2022

Economic indicators point to some deceleration Credit card purchase declined by 9% in the first 17 days of January as did the Google mobility to the workplace, compared to December; due to the Omicron virus. Expectations are still for a short wave and minimal impact on the economy.Policy makers h...

Stable TL, unhinged everything else
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jan 2022 · 1 response

First batch of polls from January reveal a few percentage points of increases for Erdogan and AKP (not MHP). Much has been made about these polls, reading into them a permanent rebound in the fortunes of the President and his party. We respectfully disagree. The opposition is catching flak fro...

Current political situation in India - five states go to the polls in February 2022
INDIA · Report · 21 Jan 2022

​Five states in India will go to the polls in February 2022. These assembly elections, particularly in the state of Uttar Pradesh, are being seen as semi-finals for the parliamentary elections in 2024. In particular, if the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which is the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh a...

President Lasso carries an important agenda to China
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2022

Thanks to the fragmentation and disagreements among legislators, it proved easier for the government to raise taxes than to reduce significantly public expenditures in 2021. Even so, $1000 million of additional tax collection and $2,000 million in higher oil revenue, together with a reduction of ...

Boric announces his cabinet picks
CHILE · In Brief · 21 Jan 2022

The markets have reacted positively to Gabriel Boric’s cabinet announcement. Is this enthusiasm warranted? Yes and no.On the one hand, even though the average age of the new ministers seems low (49), they are all quite experienced. The new Foreign Minister, for example, has a distinguished record...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE shrugs off attack and signs swap with Turkey, Kuwait’s negative outlook maintained, Airbus spat with Qatar deepens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil hit a high since 2014 of nearly $90, and forecasters expect little impact from Omicron. * Saudi issued record investment licenses in Q4 but US firms are facing frustrations there. * South Korea’s president visited the...

Expect robust growth in 2022
CHILE · Forecast · 21 Jan 2022

Main assumptions of our base scenario forecast: * In coming years there will be no major political, social or institutional crisis, and there will be some degree of coordination between the government and Congress. * Given the composition of Congress, there will be no major refor...

President Bolsonaro is negotiating a PEC with Congress to reduce the price of fuel and electricity, today is the deadline for him to sanction the 2022 Federal Budget, and a new poll on the presidential race will be published next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jan 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro confirmed that he is negotiating a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) with Congress to reduce the price of fuel and electricity. The matter has support in the House, the Senate and the Executive Office. The proposal should be presented to Congress in February. In rel...

Turn and face the strange
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

IMACEC growth slowed in November, consistent with the fading of consumption momentum. Nevertheless, activity continued to grow above potential, contributing to inflationary pressures. Services stood out, but the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 constitutes a risk. We maintain a relati...

Interpreting China’s economic results for 2021
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * China’s reported GDP growth for 2021 of 8.1 percent was better than expected, mainly because of a very poor fourth quarter that came in nonetheless well above expectations. * There are enough questions about the data, however, that we w...

Squeezing the provinces
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jan 2022

The Evergrande default and the property crackdown show a new willingness by Beijing to force deleveraging even as the economy slows in order to avoid a financial crisis. The main solution to the Evergrande default is to force debt workouts onto the backs of provincial governments. This is part of...

Russian Duma to debate Donbas status as France proposes security pact with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2022

On January 21 it was announced that the Russian parliament will hold a debate next week on recognizing Donbass and Luhansk as independent countries. That is despite some pro-Putin politicians saying that such a move would cause a full-scale war with Ukraine. Donbass and Luhansk are Russian-speaki...

​Central Government deficit ends at 2.7% of GDP in 2021
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the Central Government deficit was 2.7% of GDP in 2021, lower than the 3.0% originally contemplated in the 2021 Public Budget approved in 2020. This reduction is due to an significant increase in tax revenues, 12.7 % higher than initially planned. Although sp...

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