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***NEW*** GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC) COVERAGE ADDED TO GLOBALSOURC...

Country Insights

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March Madness started early
TURKEY - In Brief 25 Feb 2014
In our weekly we warned the investors: “Cosmo loves to kill a good buzz, so he warns all readers that the March Madness is about to start. March Madness is a very ugly and downright dirty campaign by all actors in Turkey to discredit and undermine their rivals using Machiavellian means to win the...

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New Head of the Central bank appointed – no changes in policies anticipated
UKRAINE - In Brief 25 Feb 2014
Yesterday Verkhovna Rada appointed new Head of the Central bank, Stepan Kubiv. He was a head of mid-level local commercial bank for many years. But the main reason for his appointment was his active participation in Maidan events. Bankers are optimistic about this appointment anticipating better ...

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A Bath of Humility for the official Alianza Pais
ECUADOR - In Brief 24 Feb 2014
Last Sunday 23d, Ecuadorians went to the polls for the 10th time since 2007 to elect sectional authorities. Every time, the President and his movement emerged victorious from these elections and public consultations. However, this last time is quite different. Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca and 16 ...

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Vargas-Lleras is President Santos' vicepresidential formula for May elections
COLOMBIA - In Brief 24 Feb 2014
President Santos has just announced that Germán Vargas-Lleras, his former minister of politics (2010-2012) and housing (2012-2013), will be his vice-presidential candidate for next May elections. Even though the announcement does not come as a surprise, it helps Mr. Santos' intentions in more way...

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The Announcement of the Primary Surplus Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 24 Feb 2014
The announcement of the primary surplus target was greeted by the market with an appreciation of the real and a downward shift of the entire yield curve – the short and long ends (Graph 1). Thus it was a positive reaction. In reality, the real was not the only emerging market currency to get stro...

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Early president elections appointed for May 25
UKRAINE - In Brief 22 Feb 2014
Parliament with constitutional majority (328 votes) voted in removal of Yanukovitch. In light of recent president absenteesm (he withdrew from performing his duties) the parliament decided to remove Yanukovitch from his post. Early president elections were apponited for May 25.

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Yanukovitch escapes Kyiv
UKRAINE - In Brief 22 Feb 2014
According to activists’ reports Yanukovitch escaped Kyiv and possibly Ukraine. Madian forces took under control government block and president office – no police forces at the downtown of the city. The Yanukovitch jet was suspected to fly to the eastern city Kharkiv (one of the most Russia-suppor...

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Parliament has changed constitution, dismissed minister of interior and opened way for Tymoshenko release
UKRAINE - In Brief 21 Feb 2014
It looks like Yanukovitch was quite serious on recent concessions. Just for few hours the parliament voted in return to Constitution 2004 (limited presidential authorities), dismissed minister of interior Vitaliy Zakharchenko (rumors say he’s already escaped the country) and voted in decriminaliz...

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Investment: Better Late than Never
MEXICO - Report 21 Feb 2014
Two weeks ago the relationship between investment and growth was analyzed here.There were still some aspects to be developed. Within this context one month ago, the Federal Government made a decision of great importance for public, private, and joint investments.For the first time in decades, the...

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A Stronger Bottom Line
INDONESIA - Report 21 Feb 2014
Executive Summary A cascade of good news in February firmed recent optimism. The first report was about inflation, suggesting that price rises were moderating. This was especially happy news, given Indonesia’s sensitivity to weather-prone inflation, as the country’s geographic position and arc...

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Political Earthquake
VENEZUELA - Report 21 Feb 2014
The Venezuelan political puzzle, shaken by widespread protests since early February, is slowly starting to come together again even though some parts don’t fit together yet. Leopoldo López’s image as opposition leader has strengthened. He turned himself in on February 18, as promised, in a massiv...

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Yanukovitch agreed for early elections and for constitutional changes, president office
UKRAINE - In Brief 21 Feb 2014
According to official web-site Yanukovitch agreed for early elections (in December), for constitutional change (more authorities to parliament) and for creation of coalition government. In fact, this decision will not make people at Maidan happy after yesterday bloodshed but it could reduce tensi...

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Agreement on cutting Yanukovitch power reached, media report
UKRAINE - In Brief 21 Feb 2014
Media reported that through the night there was reached an agreement about cutting Yanukovitch power through resurrection of Constitution 2004 (over the next 48 hours) and creation of coalition government (over the next 10 days). Also media say that Yanukovitch agreed for early elections in Decem...

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Weak Foreign Public Sector Assets
VENEZUELA - Report 20 Feb 2014
We update our estimate of public sector foreign financial assets including official data on the central bank’s foreign reserves and partial information on non-reserve assets. We estimate that unencumbered liquid foreign assets fell to $30.3 billion by December 2013 from $46.8 billion in December ...

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Time to Pay the Piper
ARGENTINA - Forecast 20 Feb 2014
Executive Summary After a sharp devaluation of the peso in January (23% m/m and 60 % y/y) the Central Bank launched a series of measures allowing for temporary stabilization of the money and FX markets. First, the Bank reinforced the sterilization policy, by raising interest rates by more than 10...