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Country Insights

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Shrinkage Bottoming Out
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Forecast 12 Aug 2015
Russia’s economic slump deepened in Q2. According to a preliminary Rosstat estimate, GDP fell 4.6% y/y, vs. a 2.2% fall in Q1. The recession is shifting toward investment and industry, while household demand is showing signs of stabilizing. Weak external demand is hurting export industries. Co...

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Expecting a Growth Rebound
CHINA - Forecast 12 Aug 2015
Though growth is still low, we expect it to pick up in H2, driven by several positive factors. GDP grew 7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. The GDP deflator grew 2.54% y/y in Q2, up 1.12 pps from Q1. Although prices are picking up, and are slightly higher, both domestically and compared with other devel...

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​Coalition alert: Turkey heading for early elections
TURKEY - In Brief 12 Aug 2015 3 responses
Turkey’s secularist bastion Cumhuriyet daily newspaper claimed that CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu told delegates from left-wing labor unions that Erdogan has sabotaged the coalition talks and the break-down may be announced as soon as Thursday. I’m linking the Turkish news item here. While the Tu...

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Accusations Fly in as Elections Near
PERU - Report 11 Aug 2015
President Ollanta Humala’s confrontational attitude toward the opposition has compounded his party’s problems, after it lost its congressional majority. The uncovering of wrongdoing related to campaign financing and favoritism in the awarding of contracts to individuals and firms linked to the pr...

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​Reconstructing the Davutoglu-Kilicdaroglu summit
TURKEY - In Brief 10 Aug 2015
After 8 days in the remote Aegean island of Imroz (Gokceada), which I highly recommend to those wishing to become monks or goat herders, I'm back in action and begin work by sharing with my Asian and early-bird European readers my first theories about the background of the 4.5 hour long Davutoglu...

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A first victory of Scioli, but not yet enough to ensure Presidency
ARGENTINA - In Brief 10 Aug 2015
With close to 95% of total votes counted, the results of yesterday’s primary elections are clear and not too different from what the polls hinted in the previous weeks. Scioli emerged as the “winner” but not necessarily strong enough to ensure a first round victory in the October elections, depen...

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Week of August 10
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 10 Aug 2015
The weeks begins with considerable interests in the protests scheduled for next Sunday.President Dilma Rousseff, in an effort to impose a positive agenda, launches the Electric Energy Investments Plan (PIEE).Minister Joaquim Levy may present a set of measures to stimulate the economy to senators.

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Political Crisis, Increased Risk and Official Reactions
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Aug 2015
In recent weeks, Brazil’s CDS quotations have risen steeply. This movement has been prompted not only be the loosening of fiscal policy, reflected in the new primary surplus targets, which has raised the likelihood the country will lose its investment grade rating, but also by the worsening polit...

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Global Opposition with no Opposition at Home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 07 Aug 2015
Hosting a BRICS summit and a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Operation allowed Russia to present both organizations as an alternative to the Western-led international institutions. Although other summit participants were reluctant to support Russia’s anti-Western rhetoric, the meetings demonst...

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External Headwinds
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 07 Aug 2015
External risks have increased since our last report.Our outlook, which sees GDP growth at 6.1% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016, is one of guarded optimism that considers robust domestic demand growth alongside softer export demand, increasing foreign investor caution, more volatile global financial mark...

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On Reelections, Rabbits and Ratings
TURKEY - Report 06 Aug 2015
Markets seem focused on three issues/questions at the moment: What is the latest on the coalition vs. reelection odds, given the cacophony of announcements coming out of Ankara? What should we exactly make out of the CBRT Governor Basci’s latest announcement of simplifying the monetar...

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Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 Aug 2015
Sources from the judicial sector claim that, in the coming weeks, the General Prosecutor of the Republic (PGR) will accuse the president of the House, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) in the Federal Supreme Court (STF), on the basis of involvement in acts of corruption discovered in the Lava Jato Operation.

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Poverty Rises as Economy Slows
MEXICO - Report 05 Aug 2015
The news isn’t all bad: Consumer confidence has rebounded, the stores are reporting increased sales, and industry continues to hire. But the economy continues to slow, recent indicators show. And on balance, the latest news has been negative. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) showed activity slippi...

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July CPI increased 15.6% y-o-y boosted by regulated services and RUB devaluation
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 04 Aug 2015
Annual inflation increased from 15.3% y-o-y (+0.2% m-o-m) in June to 15.6% y-o-y (+0.8% m-o-m) in July. Food deflation continued with food prices declining 0.3% m-o-m compared to -0.4% m-o-m in June. Main reason for increase in inflation is traditional increase in regulated prices and tariffs. Si...

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The arrest of José Dirceu and its consequences
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Aug 2015
The arrest of José Dirceu in the Lava Jato Operation will increase pressure on the PT even further.Especially taking in consideration that the incident occurred at the same time as Renato Duque, former Petrobras director, is negotiating a plea bargain deal. The combination of these two facts m...