Country Insights

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After the Fiasco
PERU - Report 01 Aug 2013
Executive SummaryPresident Ollanta Humala is trying to recover lost ground, on the heels of the Repsol fiasco that led to both a loss of business confidence and a weakening of his own approval ratings. So low have the president's ratings fallen that his wife Nadine Heredia, whose name we used to ...

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Downside Risks Loom Large
CHINA - Forecast 01 Aug 2013
Executive Summary Chinese leaders saw this slowdown coming. Shortly before Q2 growth data were released – revealing growth at 7.5% y/y -- Premier Li Keqiang vowed to safeguard “bottom lines.” Yet we may see further slowing in Q3. Some pundits suggest the bottom line might be the 7% target note...

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Industrial Production: Slow Recovery in the First Half and Likely Deceleration in the Second
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Aug 2013
Industrial output in June reversed the 1.8% decline in May, growing by 1.9%, and the rate over the preceding 12 months was 3.1%. However, it must be considered that the seasonal adjustment made by the IBGE does not account for the effect of the Corpus Christi holiday, which usually falls in June ...

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An Unnecessary Mess
INDIA - Report 31 Jul 2013
Executive Summary The government’s defense of the rupee is turning a difficult situation into a mess. This damages the outlook for the rupee, for the Nifty and for the economy. In addition, an unregulated commodity spot exchange (“NSEL”) has suspended trading and promises delayed payments on outs...

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Persistence in Labor Market Weakness
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 30 Jul 2013
Robust and sustainable job creation remains a key economic challenge in South Africa. According to figures released by StatsSA, employment posted a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter of 2013, while unemployment rose by 2.6% q/q during the same quarter (Q2 2013). Against this b...

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Waiting for the Plan
MEXICO - Report 30 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Early in the week the United Nation’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) downwardly adjusted its growth estimates for the current year for Mexico (from 3.5% to 2.8%) and for other countries in the region. Combined with the lowered forecast for Brazil...

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Energy Reform and Protest
MEXICO - Report 30 Jul 2013
Executive Summary The path to reforming Mexico’s petroleum sector remains somewhat clouded as the two main opposition parties have staked out diametrically opposed plans, and the PRI has yet to clearly define a proposal of its own. Further complicating matters is the extent to which the PAN remai...

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Will Ukraine Fall?
UKRAINE - Report 30 Jul 2013
Executive SummaryUnprecedented social unrest, coming on atop severe economic problems, could lead to massive investor and capital flight. It’s hard to pinpoint just how or when that might happen -- but we foresee things proceeding along an extremely turbulent path in the runup to the 2015 preside...

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Goodbye, “Made in China”
CHINA - Report 30 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Premier Li Keqiang says he will defend the “bottom line” for China’s economic growth. But what is that? Some suggest it’s the 7% GDP growth target; others that it’s 7.5%. Per the second view, 7.5% was achieved in Q2, and is already the bottom line. A third view is that Li has...

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Inflation Report Highlights
TURKEY - Report 30 Jul 2013
The big change today was the upward revision of the end-2013 inflation forecast to 6.2% (from 5.3% previously), mainly on account of higher oil prices and weaker lira assumptions. The revision is slightly more than our expectation, but still lower than where we think inflation will end up by the ...

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Rougher Riding
COLOMBIA - Forecast 29 Jul 2013
Executive SummaryUnder the government and central bank’s balance of payments outlook for 2013-2017, the current account deficit is expected to peak this year and next at 3.4% of GDP, then fall to below 3% of GDP by 2017. But the capital account surplus is on track to fall from 4.3% this year to 3...

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Political Insights: Week of July 29
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Jul 2013
Congress resumes activity on Thursday, but voting will begin next week. This week we highlight the economy, with the release of the commercial balance for July, industrial production for June and other indicators. Dilma’s interview Sunday’s Folha newspaper contained a three-page interview with Pr...

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Unemployment May Rise Slightly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Jul 2013
Explaining the behavior of unemployment in Brazil in recent years has been a challenge. It rose only slightly during the crisis of 2008, when Brazil faced a recession, and for the past year and a half it has remained roughly stable in seasonally adjusted terms (Graph 1), even with the progressive...

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Less Growth and No Success in Reducing Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 29 Jul 2013
Executive Summary We have reduced the projections for GDP growth to 1.9% in 2013, and to 2% in 2014. Inflation will remain high (6% in 2013 and 6.5% in 2014); the exchange rate should stay in the range of R$2.25/US$ in 2013 and RS$ 2.30/US$ in 2014; and the trade surpluses should decline to US$ 5...

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Growth Outlook Bleak
INDIA - Forecast 29 Jul 2013
Executive SummaryProduction continues to slow: GDP grew at 4.8% y/y in Q4 (Jan-Mar) of 2012-2013, and non-agricultural GDP grew 5.3%. Industrial production has likewise slipped, contracting 1.6% y/y in May. A task force has been set up to track stalled projects in key power, coal, mines and road ...