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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Castillo’s government weakens; growth likely to moderate in 2022‒23
PERU · Forecast · 14 Dec 2021

Popular support for the government of President Pedro Castillo continues to dwindle, at a surprisingly rapid pace. Last week the government averted an impeachment process in Congress by only six votes. This perilous state has developed only four months after Castillo stepped into office. Without ...

What happens in Barinas doesn’t stay in Barinas
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Dec 2021

Barinas State is the home state of former president Hugo Chávez. It has been governed by the Chávez clan since 1998. On November 21, the Unity Platform (Plataforma Unitaria, or PU) candidate and a Popular Will (Voluntad Popular, or VP) party member, Freddy Superlano, won the race for governor...

Steady and strong CA surplus remains shekel positive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Dec 2021

The CA surplus in Q321 reached 5.3bn USD from 4.9bn in Q2 and 6.4bn in Q1. In Q3 the trade deficit increased by 1.1bn to 6.0bn while the service account surplus increased by 0.6bn to 10.1bn. Net revenues from financial investments abroad reduced the primary income account deficit. Net FDI reached...

Politics: Presidential popularity high but uneven, with considerable voter support for the INE
MEXICO · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Despite most opinion polls showing that President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador enjoys broad majority support, with the average giving him a 65% approval rating, GEA-ISA estimates put the figure at 54%, with voter disapproval at 40%. This is largely unchanged since September. In the most recent ele...

Economics: Rising inflation and mounting risks heading into 2022
MEXICO · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Consumer inflation continued to accelerate in November by climbing 7.37%, the highest reading in more than 20 years as a series of risks pose the threat of a price spiral in the year to come. Clearly this is part of a much broader global phenomenon, but there are specific risks in Mexico that rai...

Recession and High Interest Rates in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

With the fiscal anchor destroyed by the Precatórios PEC, and inflation closing 2021 above 10%, the Central Bank will have to maintain monetary policy in restrictive territory for the foreseeable future. The SELIC rate at the start of 2021 was 2% and will end at 9.25%, with further increases assur...

The last week of work in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

This may be the last week of congressional activity this year. The goal in Congress is to vote on the Federal Budget by Friday, December 17, and start recess early; it would typically start on December 23. The Precatórios PEC is one of the main items on the agenda. The TCU may adjudicate Eletrobr...

The Federal budget surplus exceeded R2.3 trln in 11M21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget surplus exceeded R 2.3 trln amid strong revenue collection and rather moderate spending in November. In 11M total revenues exceeded the initial annual plan by 19.6% as oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual target by 36.6%. Non-oil-and-gas r...

​OFZ: Russian institutional investors have reduced positions in 3Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

CBR has published data on OFZ holdings by local institutional investors following as of end of 3Q21. For the first time in a year, they reduced positions in government bonds (-R51 bln in nominal terms in June-September). Pension funds have cut investments by R48 bln, and insurance companies --- b...

Economic expectations exceeded
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Dec 2021

The capacity for rapid recovery of the Dominican economy was reaffirmed in the final stretch of 2021, with y/y growth of 12.4% in January-October 2021. Higher economic growth, greater-than-expected tax revenues and containment of spending have led to a drastic reduction in the nonfinancial public...

Pyrrhic victory
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Venezuela is about to exit the hyperinflation cycle it entered in November 2017. This year will close with inflation near 556 percent, one quarter of the 2,463-percent pace seen one year ago. It’s a Pyrrhic victory whose heavy toll negates any true sense of achievement and damages long-term progr...

The House is scheduled to vote on the Precatórios PEC on Tuesday, the Senate CAE holds confirmation hearings for official appointments on Tuesday, and the STF goes into recess on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Since the Precatórios PEC was modified by the senators, it needs to be re-analyzed by the deputies. The parts that were changed in the Senate will be added to a PEC that is ready for a vote in the plenary of the House. As this will be a different PEC, the Senate will have to vote on it again. The...

Rapid decline in fiscal deficit improves fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Highlights: The fiscal deficit declines sharply * In November, the fiscal deficit declined to 4.6% GDP LTM from 5.5%. * Tax revenues are up 24% y/y this year while non-Covid spending is up only 2.3%. We expect a low fiscal deficit of 2.7% in 2022. FX: The shekel appreciated by 1....

Rapid decline in fiscal deficit improves fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Dec 2021

The fiscal deficit declines sharply In November, the fiscal deficit declined to 4.6% GDP LTM from 5.5%. Tax revenues are up 24% y/y this year while non-Covid spending is up only 2.3%. We expect a low fiscal deficit of 2.7% in 2022. FX: The shekel appreciated by 1.7% last week against the basket. ...

G7 threatens severe sanctions if Russia does not withdraw troops from Ukrainian border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2021

On December 11 the group of the 7 most industrialized nations issued a statement from Liverpool, UK. They called for Russia to resume diplomacy. The G7 comprises the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the EU. It used to be the G8 until Russia was expelled over Crimea in 2014. T...

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