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Russia political/pandemic update: the changing quarantine regime
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Ever since the Russian president launched a special mission in Ukraine, Russia became quite quickly disconnected from many countries. Meanwhile, Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell sharply from around 200K in mid-February to around 20K by the end of March. Given that Russia was almost com...

​Inflation y-o-y to reach 20% soon and erode domestic demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w in seven days ending on March 25, reached 1.16%. Prices keep rising across the board. Inflation MTD and YTD reached 6.60% and 8.91% while y-o-y figure moved up to 15.66% as estimated by the Economics Ministry. Inflation w-o-w moderated but it is likely that i...

Guatemala: Robust growth to gradually fade
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Mar 2022

For second year in a row, Guatemala´s performance has been better than that of its regional partners. The economy showed strong growth, good external accounts, a notable improvement in the fiscal area and stable macro prices. Room for a second rebound will fade in 2022 and disappear in 2023. Guat...

The government is considering providing a 5% raise for all public servants, the resignations of nine ministers were published in the Official Gazette today, and João Doria may decide not to run for president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Through the Forum of Entities of the Federal Servants (Fonasefe) and the Forum of Typical Careers of the State (Fonacate), employees of the executive, legislative and judicial branches organized a demonstration in Brasilia in favor of a salary raise. The 5% raise will depend on the pressure from ...

The war becomes protracted amid growing support of the war in Russian society
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

The 36th day of war. We do not see any big changes at the front except the continued reallocation of Russian forces to Donbas and to the South East of Ukraine. To the North of Kyiv a big group of the Russian military is staying in operational encirclement. The Russians also withdrew from the Nort...

The Evergrande bank heist
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Chinese banks took control of $2 billion of Evergrande cash held by Evergrande Property Services, a unit of Evergrande. Surprisingly, the company expressed confusion about the transfer and said it is “investigating” how the banks claimed the funds. What does this tell us about China’s economy as ...

Putin's approval up in March
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

A Levada opinion poll showed that the president's approval climbed from 69% in February to 83% in March 2022. This is likely due to the war. As the saying goes: no war is at first unpopular. If the war drags on for months and casualties mount, then his popularity will dip.Western hopes that sanct...

No rate hike, no surprise at today's deposit tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

The usual Thursday tender for 1-week deposits has been called with an unchanged 6.15% fixed interest rate by the MNB today.On this occasion, a further rate hike would have been surprising for two reasons:- The forint is currently (slightly) stronger than EURHUF 370, the level which the MNB has be...

Is it game over? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Mar 2022

Notwithstanding aerial photos in social media showing a sea of pink in Vice President Leni Robredo’s campaign rallies, pink being her signature color, surveys suggest that the impressive attendances are hardly making a dent on her poll numbers. The latest figures we’ve seen, done by The Laylo Rep...

We share Minister Alexander's optimism for 2022, but some issues remain unresolved. Politics retake the headlines.
PANAMA · Report · 30 Mar 2022

The macroeconomic and fiscal projections presented in mid-March by the MEF are consistent with previous official forecasts and those of most analysts. Efforts to exit the GAFI list are moving slowly. Structural reforms to the CSS pension program will wait for the conclusions of the ILO report. Pr...

Fidesz still holds the lead in the election race, polls suggest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2022

Four days before election day, Medián Opinion and Market Research measured 40% support for Fidesz and only 32% support for the united opposition. As the local electoral law typically rewards the winner, this result can be translated into a 128 to 71 win for Fidesz, in terms of the parliamentary s...

Two new polls on the presidential election to be published today, the STF should review the ADPF on the Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon, and there are rumors that Persio Arida will lead Lula’s economic team if elected
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2022

The new polls — one from Banco Modal and another from PoderData — are not expected to bring much new information. The polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro remains consolidated, and it is also unlikely that either of the polls will be able to consistently measure the impact of the episode invol...

Russia claims to be de-escalating but the West is doubtful
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2022

On March 29 Moscow said it was halting major combat operations in northern Ukraine and concentrating on the Donbas. Ukraine remains skeptical but noted there has been a reduction in Russian activity near Kyiv. The US suspects that Russia is rotating units. Some Russian units have been in the fiel...

Russian macro: in search of integrity
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Having experienced a shock, a month after the start of the military operation some Russian producers and ministries began talking about inevitable changes to their business plans. Even when things go in line with the plans made at the very top level, making one's own plans becomes increasingly co...

Preparing for the new normal
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Mar 2022

The Indonesian economy has been significantly affected by the pandemic for the past two years, and this has had a significant bearing on the Indonesian government budget. Expenditures for medical assistance were very high over the past two years, as were expenses for the social safety net program...

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