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Constitutional crisis in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

President Sandu's pick as prime minister has twice been rejected by Parliament.Parliament is dominated by the Socialist Party led by Igor Dodon. Dodon lost the presidential election to her in 2020.The Constitutional Court ruled against Sandu, saying she had to consult parliament before nominating...

18 companies pull out of Nord Stream 2 says USA
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

On February 23 Washington announced that companies were deserting the Russia to Germany undersea gas pipeline. The companies that have pulled will not be subject to sanctions. The US wants to scotch the pipeline because it says it makes the EU over dependent on Russia. The ulterior motive is that...

​Berat Albayrak is not the only problem TL is facing
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

This morning CBRT was forced to raise required reserve ratios by 200 basis points across the deposit maturity spectrum to defend the TL.As I write these lines, around Istanbul time noon, dollar/TL did not respond to the additional monetary tightening step, which may be because of rumors surfacing...

No policy change, no surprise at all at today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Feb 2021

At its regular monthly rate-setting meeting today, the Monetary Council concluded exactly as we predicted in our monthly report published yesterday. The market also remained fundamentally unsurprised by the decision.The Council kept all policies unchanged and issued a statement that sounded rathe...

Russian macro: Emphasis on economic growth the country has been lacking
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Feb 2021

The Russian economy has somehow weathered the 2020 pandemic storm, avoided a deep recession despite low energy prices and is going to bounce back in 2021. But this year looks challenging as well, albeit in a different sense. The country’s economic growth has looked extremely unimpressive on avera...

​Government launches Economic and Social Council
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Feb 2021

Last Friday, President Alberto Fernandez announced the formal creation of an Economic and Social Council (ESC). It had been part of AF's political promises at the onset of his mandate but was delayed by the pandemic’s urgency. This interdisciplinary body, presided by National Secretary of Stra...

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2021

On February 22 the EU imposed sanctions on four Russian officials because of the incarceration of Alexei Navalny.The EU sanctions are less extensive than anticipated. Brussels is leaving the door open to compromise. Navalny's allies urged the EU to target Putin's billionaire cronies. The measures...

Politics: The geography of political violence, Part 3
MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2021

As we continue our series documenting how cartels and gangs are stoking all manner of criminal activities throughout the country and the political threat such violence poses to governance in this key election year, we turn our attention to the trends that have led to the pulverization of the once...

Economics: Fourth quarter labor market review
MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2021

Fourth quarter labor sector data and formal sector payroll numbers through January 2020 portray a greatly debilitated labor market, and there is as yet little clarity as to when we might begin to see any significant improvement. Further complicating the outlook is the sharp departure from trends ...

Discomfort in the Ministry of Economy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2021

The government and congressional leaders expect to decide on the specifics of the new round of emergency stimulus payments this week. To make the program viable, the Senate should vote on the Emergency Amendment on Thursday, February 25, and send it to the House. The House and Senate may define t...

Pandemic, Fiscal Risk and Yield Curve
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2021

With the vaccination program progressing at a snail’s pace and the spontaneous reaction of society to the increasing death toll, increasing the voluntary social distancing, GDP will almost surely shrink in the first quarter this year. The inevitable prolongation of some type of emergency relief a...

In QE we trust. Zelenskiy reports disagreements with the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed some disagreements with the IMF, when speaking at Forum “Ukraine 30”. In particular, he mentioned the Fund has multiple comments to the draft law on the High Council of Justice he submitted to the parliament recently. Reload of the High Council of Justice is ...

KUWAIT: Government proposes large annual sovereign wealth withdrawals to part-finance deficits
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Feb 2021 · 1 response

The government has proposed an amendment to the 1976 law on the Future Generations Fund (FGF) that would permit the withdrawal of up to KD5bn ($16.5bn) annually to finance deficits (Qabas-Arabic). During the last year, the government has been in a bind because it is not able to withdraw from the ...

Labor productivity surges in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Feb 2021

GDP numbers surprised on the upside in 2020, and labor productivity surged by 6.8%. Despite recent weak economic indicators, rapid vaccination and the opening of the economy will support strong household demand. Inflation surprised on the upside as prices of housing (rental) and durable goods mov...

Accelerating the Covid vaccinations has become critically urgent
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Feb 2021

The development of the Covid new infections curve has changed for the worse lately. Following the spectacular reversal of a second wave, the situation stopped improving in late January and the daily number of new infections has been increasing again ever since. The authorities have announced the ...

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