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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

2022: Something has to give
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

The politics section of the first Weekly report of the year is dedicated to establishing a road map for 2022, as well as going over our main scenario and predictions. President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance didn’t receive a windfall in polls despite massive fiscal largesse, as rampant poverty ...

Kazakh former security chief arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2022

On January 8 Karimov Massimov was taken into custody and accused of being a traitor. He was once Prime Minister and head of the internal intelligence agency (NBK) since 2016. On January 5 he was fired as chairman of the NBK by President Tokayev. Several years ago it had even been rumored that Mas...

Russian macro: recent Rosstat revision promises stronger growth in 2021-2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Rosstat announced at the very end of December 2021 that it had revised Russia’s annual GDP statistics for 2019-2020. The quarterly GDP numbers, however, have not been upgraded either for 9M21 or previous periods. Therefore, the revised annual numbers do not match the available quarterly statistic...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai & Oman budgets, Bahrain Q3 GDP, record Covid cases
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Daily covid cases hit a new record in the GCC but so far there have been very few recent deaths. * OPEC+ stuck with its taper but unrest in Kazakhstan has pushed oil up to $82. * PMIs remained strong in Qatar and UAE but...

Politics will drive economic performance in 2022
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is scheduled for October or November of this year. This makes 2022 an especially important year politically for the Beijing leadership, making it unlikely that they will tolerate a poor econ...

Kazakhstan: uneasy calm returns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2022 · 1 response

On January 7 the president said that order has largely returned. Russian troops have been deployed there at Kazakhstan's request. The government announced that 26 armed criminals have been killed. Roughly 2,300 people have been arrested. About 2,000 people have been injured. President Tokayev sai...

A strong RMB into 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Jan 2022

China’s yuan has strengthened steadily for much of 2021. Capital inflows remain strong, while exports have maintained relative strength. This is likely to continue in 2022. For 2022, China’s RMB policy will confront a number of challenges. First is the outlook for exports, particularly to the ...

Dozens killed in Kazakhstan as Russia airlifts troops in
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

On January 6 officials reported that scores of people had been shot dead by the police in Almaty. The president said on January 5 that terrorist gangs had taken over part of the city and the airport. The airport has since been retaken by the authorities. The government says that at least 13 polic...

First time since late November: no rate hike at today's 1-week deposit tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The 1-week deposit rate, which currently plays the role of the effective sterilisation rate, remained unchanged at 4% at today's tender.This is very telling. In late November, when the sterilisation rate was separated from the base rate again, the MNB said that its decisions to set the 1-week dep...

Covid's 4th wave is over, but Omicron is coming through the gates
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

There is good news and bad news once again. The former is that daily new cases, hospitalisations, patients in serious condition, virus test hit ratios have all fallen back substantially from the heights of the local 4th wave, seen in November. The latter is that there is no peace on the Covid fro...

The State Capture Zondo Commission Report is out- finally
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The year began with a bang on the South Africa's political economy stage. This is a critical year for SA's medium term political outlook as the ANC is heading for its mid-term elective congress in December 2022 at which the next leadership of the Party will be elected, and by implication the next...

​The Palace strikes back
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

It has become cliché to say so, but tensions in politics escalated further, as Erdogan threatened protestors with violence, while press accounts report an indictment against CHP’s popular Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. These strikes are Erdogan’s last bullets in the area of intimidating the o...

Kazakhstan appoints new PM as protests turn violent
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2022

On January 5 Alikhan Smailov became Prime Minister. He is 49 years old, a native Kazakh and he was born in Almaty. Smailov served as Finance Minister before being First Deputy Prime Minister. He is a member of the ruling party: Nur Otan (Light of the Fatherland). Smailov is seen as a safe pair of...

Kazakh Cabinet resigns in a bid to appease protesters
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2022

On January 5 the Prime Minister and the entire cabinet resigned. Demonstrations have erupted in a dozen cities due to an eye watering Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) price hike. There have been over 200 arrests. LNG is used to run vehicles in the western part of the country. Protesters are irate that a ...

Kazakhstan roiled by fuel protests
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

On January 2 protests broke out in Mangystau over the brupt rise in the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Demonstrators demanded lower prices and for the government to resign. People have spent all night on squares in Zhanaozen and Aktau. There were up to 6,000 protesters in Aktau which is un...

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