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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Russian industry contracted by 2.9% in 2020, as the OPEC+ deal pulled mining down while manufacturing grew moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2021

The contraction in 2Q20 and 3Q20 (by 6.7% and 4.8% y-o-y, accordingly) was deeper. After the initial shock caused by the pandemic in 2Q20, production was catching up almost all across the board. Mining was still down by 8.4% y-o-y in 4Q20 (and by 7.0% in 2020 as a whole). Manufacturing was up by ...

The risk of institutional instability and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2021

This is the last week of the parliamentary recess. Candidates for the presidencies of the House and Senate should intensify their movements in the final leg of the campaign. In São Paulo, new restrictive measures are in effect to contain the spread of COVID-19 in the state. Unemployment data (Cag...

BoI FX purchases expected to neutralize positive shekel fundamentals
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Jan 2021

We view the BoI's committed FX purchases of 30bn USD in 2021 as significant, and basically neutralizing the CA surplus and net FDI. Recent economic indicators for the end of December and January point to deceleration due to the tightening of the lockdown. The upbeat development is the rapid vacci...

BoI FX purchases will most likely neutralize positive shekel fundamentals
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Jan 2021

We see the FX purchases neutralizing the CA surplus and net FDI. 2020 was an exceptional year with the CA surplus and FDI estimated at 40bn USD (double FX intervention of 21bn). We note that not all of the real inflows reach the FX market. Higher energy prices and a likely return of tourism in 2H...

Not much to write home about
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2021

Despite the next domestic elections being two-and-a-half years away, and AKP-MHP showing no interest in early elections, Turkish politics is turning chaotic. We try to make sense of the rapidly changing dynamics, but confess that our explanations are subject to a wide band of error. It seems Pres...

Over 3000 arrested in protests for Navalny
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2021 · 1 response

On January 23 large scale demonstrations erupted in several Russian cities. People demanded the release of anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny. Social media platforms had posts advertising these protests taken down by the government.Navalny returned from Germany last week where he recovered...

US proposal on START appreciated by Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

On January 20 the American suggestion to prolong the present nuclear arms control treaty was welcomed by Russia. START runs out on February 5. This is an unusual example of the two countries seeing eye to eye. The US suggested that the treaty be extended by 5 years, which Russia previously sugges...

The Controversy over the Appreciation of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2021

The financial market has a tendency to forecast that the Real will get stronger in 2021. We don’t deny that international causes might lead to this result. The elevation of international commodity prices is producing gains in the terms of trade, causing the real exchange rate to appreciate, and t...

EU Parliament proposes blocking Nord Stream
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

On January 21 the EU Parliament voted that Nord Stream 2 should be blocked due to the arrest of Alexei Navalny. The Members of the European Parliament demanded sanctions on Russian oligarchs and the president's cronies.The Parliament's votes is only a recommendation. The EU is not obliged to give...

​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain issues bond, Qatar’s Q3 GDP rebounds, Covid surges in Dubai
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Biden will consult with allies before dealing with Iran, but his key nominees support the JCPOA. * Dubai cancelled live entertainment as Covid surges, although it is 2nd g...

The South African Reserve Bank remains put: missed opportunity or level-headedness?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Jan 2021 · 1 response

South Africa’s (SA) Monetary Policy Committee met on Thursday, January 21, for the first time in 2021. In line with the Bloomberg economists’ survey consensus, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates unchanged at 7% and 3.5% for the prime rate and repo rate, respectively. This is follow...

The Russian budget: decent execution in 2020 sets a good base for 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending massively increased in December, and in 2020 as a whole, the government expenditures exceeded R22.8 trln. In December alone, the government allocated 17.1% of the annual figure. Both figures appeared well above the expected. Meanwh...

Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan agree on oil field
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

On January 21 the two nations signed an agreement on an oil field under the Caspian Sea. The memorandum of mutual intention agrees to develop the Dostluq Undersea Field. The two nations used to have separate names for it but they have agreed on Dostluq now. It is believed to hold over 50 million ...

FDI in Russia lowest since 1994
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

On January 19 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) published statistics showing that foreign investment in 2020 was the lowest in 26 years. There was only USD 1.4 billion of FDI in 2020. That is partly owing to coronavirus. FDI in 2019 was USD 29 billion.However, the long-term pattern on FDI in Russia ...

Critical mass of Covid vaccinations expected by end-summer
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jan 2021

Our new quarterly forecast is published in an era of unusually high uncertainty. The key unknowns are the development and success of Covid vaccinations globally, the implementation of the new rule-of-law legislation in Europe and the outcome of the 2022 parliamentary election domestically. Given ...

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