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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recovery, but with significant risks
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Economic recovery resumed in November after October’s pause, although less intensely than in August and September. Although the 0.3% 12-month variation was helped by a low comparison base due to the violent protests of Q4 2019, the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased by 1.4% m/m. In t...

MPC: Words vs. actions, redux
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2021

At today’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT left the policy rate unchanged, at 17%, in line with the consensus expectation (see chart). The Bank tried to balance this inaction with more “hawkish” amendments to the MPC statement, which, along with a stronger emphasis on the difficult in...

Prime rate moves into negative territory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

The NBU Board left prime rate unchanged at 6%. The decision was delivered despite consumer inflation has already sped up to 6.3% y/y in January, according to the NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko. Already in February inflation will break 7% ceiling. This means real policy rate from now will be in ne...

Data watch: Gross international reserves
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

Last year, gross international reserves (GIR) surged 25% to end the year at close to $110 billion. This is remarkable considering the unprecedented global scale and severity of the covid19 crisis. While short-term capital exited emerging markets as in past crises, this time around in the Philippi...

The Government of Panama taps the bond market (between US$ 2 billion and US$2.5 billion), and the IMF approves a PLL for the equivalent of US$2.7 billion
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

There was good news for the Government of Panama's finances at the beginning of the year. First, the IMF Executive Directorate agreed to a two-year Precautionary Liquidity Line of Credit (PLL) of US$ 2.7 billion with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, with US$ 1,350 million available for the fi...

Bogus presidential debates
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2021

After three debates, our opinion of the political and economic future of Ecuador depending on whom is elected has not changed. And we are sure that the confusion of many was not dissipated by the debates, either. We still consider Guillermo Lasso as the best option, and Andres Arauz as the worst....

Navalny video accuses Putin of using USD 1.35 billion in bribes to build a palace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 19 Alexei Navalny's supporters published a video showing Putin's house Paraskoveyevka. The house is by the Black Sea. The money for its construction was allegedly plundered from the treasury. Aerial footage of the palace was released. It is unclear how the footage was obtained since th...

Truck traffic, Covid-19 and the economy in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2021

There is continued debate about the severity of Covid-19 in China, and more generally, about the accuracy of the country’s economic data. The latest WHO visit to China starting on January 14 to assess the source and impact of Covid-19 has continued to raise questions about the transparency of the...

Russia alleges that the US cut off phone lines at NYC Consulate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 20 Moscow made the accusation against the United States. It is possible that this is an American riposte against a cyberattack on the US that Washington says was perpetrated by Moscow. Thirty phone lines were cut for over a day.The incident is a diplomatic spat on the day that Biden as...

​BAHRAIN: Fiscals look weak ahead of bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jan 2021

Bahrain is looking to issue around $2bn in 7-30 year bonds, its third issuance in less than a year. This is to refinance a bond maturing next week, given a paucity of FX reserves, and partly finance the large and structural deficit. The data from the bond prospectus on the 2020 fiscal outturn loo...

The Russian ruble: settling in the comfort zone
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jan 2021

During the pandemic-hit 2020, the Russian economy demonstrated that its ability to absorb external shocks is rather strong, as its GDP contraction was moderate, while in the past decade it demonstrated that it lacks strong growth drivers as the average annual economic growth was quite unimpressiv...

Turkey and Azerbaijan agree on free trade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 19 Ankara ratified a trade deal with Azerbaijan. Bilateral trade in 2020 was worth USD 2 billion. Turkey exported 85% of that, and Azerbaijan 15%. Turkey's main exports to Azerbaijan are building materials, technical appliances and vehicles. The deal was signed 11 months ago.

Russian icebreaker sails the Northern Sea Route for the first time in January
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 16 a ship completed a journey that was thought impossible at this time of year. Global warming has some upside for Russia. The LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie sailed from the Chukchi Sea to the Bering Strait.Moscow trumpeted the achievement. The Northern Sea Route will probably be na...

US sanctions Russian ship laying Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 19 the US sanctioned the ship Fortuna. Fortuna is owned by KVT RUS. Germany has expressed its disappointment. Nord Stream 2 will carry LNG from Russia to Germany. This is crucial for German energy policy. The USD 11 billion pipeline is 95% complete.There are asset freezes and visa rest...

The current account widens in 4Q20 as exports grow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

The Central bank released its first estimate of the 2020 balance of payments. The current account was in surplus at $32.5bn, and the figure is close to what GKEM Analytica expected (around $35bn or 2.4% of GDP). Meanwhile, in 2019 the current account surplus was twice as wide – $64.8 bn.The trade...

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