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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Yuan faces further appreciation pressure
CHINA · Report · 28 Jan 2021

Chinese GDP rose 2.3% y/y in 2020. The slower growth mainly occurred in Q1 and Q2. Growth rose to 4.9% y/y in Q3, and 6.5% y/y in Q4, reaching the normal levels. Industrial output saw a similar GDP trend, and grew 2.8% y/y from 2019. Specifically, output rose 7.1% y/y in Q4, up 1.2 pps from Q4 20...

Recovery outlook: neither bad nor good
UKRAINE · Forecast · 28 Jan 2021

Ukraine survived 2020 rather smoothly, compared to the rest of the world. Economic growth dropped by 4.5% y/y, which is a very good result for Ukraine in the storm of global crisis. Incomes continued to grow. The current account balance reached an astonishing surplus of $6.9 billion, or 4.6% of ...

Inflation Report: Hawkish rhetoric continues
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jan 2021

The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year, according to which the Bank, as broadly expected, kept the end-2021 and 2022 inflation forecasts unchanged at 9.4% (midpoint of 7.3%-11.5%) and at 7% (midpoint of 4.6%-9.4%), respectively. Inflation is expected to ease to the official ...

​4Q20 GDP: improving but weak
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

As expected, the contraction in GDP declined from double digits in 2Q and 3Q to 8.3% yoy in 4Q following looser quarantine restrictions and increased supply of public transport. The 4Q level of activity was a 5.6% improvement over 3Q on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Nevertheless, the weakness of t...

Russia penalizing social media networks for not censoring protest memes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 27 Moscow's communications regulator (Roskomnadzor) announced fines levied on seven social media networks that did not remove pro-Navalny videos. Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, Vkontakte, Odnoklassniki and YouTube were all found to be in breach of a law that obliges them to remo...

As w-o-w inflation remains high the government considers some administrative measures
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2021

Rosstat reported Russia’s inflation during the seven days ending January 25 remained at 0.2%, i.e., it was on average the same as w-o-w inflation in December and earlier in January. The y-o-y inflation in January will likely be close to 5.5%. A closer look at the breakdown of inflation components...

Moscow to reopen bars as coronavirus falls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2021

On January 27 Moscow relaxed its work-from-home rule and restaurant curfew. Coronavirus cases are going down further and further. Until now only 30% of staff could work in person. Restaurants and bars had to close 11 pm and 6 am.The city will decide by February 6 whether students will be allowed ...

Consumer sector metrics in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jan 2021

As China moves into 2021, two key questions for the economy are: 1) Will consumer spending increase to match the gains in other sectors? 2) Will China be able to reduce the stimulus through state spending on fixed asset investment? The official data on retail sales for December 2020 and FY2020...

Japan and Russia negotiate on Arctic and food
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

On January 15 Tokyo suggested to Moscow that the two nations collaborate on transporting goods along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), fisheries, kelp cultivation and comestible trade. The Japanese have long wanted the return of the Kurile Islands, which the USSR conquered in 1945. The Russian Consti...

Monetary Policy and Its Limits
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2021

At its last meeting, the COPOM deleted the forward guidance – the commitment to keep the SELIC rate at 2% for an extended period – meaning that as soon as deemed necessary, the monetary authorities will proceed with monetary normalization. The current directors of the Central Bank have given stro...

Weathering the storm
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Jan 2021

In El Salvador, we continue to perceive calm political conditions, a month before legislative and municipal elections. Despite serious fiscal problems, now aggravated by the pandemic, the absence of discussion of hot topics related to fiscal adjustment amazes us. As we’ve said in previous reports...

Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned
CHILE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

As expected, Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned on Tuesday to launch a presidential run. Briones’ political skills and common touch made him a valued addition to the government in the aftermath of the 2019 protests. His popularity has made him a natural choice as a presidential candidate f...

No policy change out of today's Monetary Council meeting.
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council today has resulted in a no-policy-change decision. Moreover, there has been very little novelty in the Council's statement as well, as that mostly repeated, or referred to, the MNB's recent statements, actions and predictions. All t...

Economics: Banxico shortfall adds to budget woes
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2021

For months now we have warned that the 2021 budget package the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador proposed and ultimately passed last fall was marred by unrealistic revenue projections predicated on a similarly optimistic estimate of how much the Mexican economy is likely to gro...

Politics: The militarization of AMLO’s government
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jan 2021

The bizarre chain of events beginning with the arrest of Mexico’s previous minister of defense last October at Los Angeles International Airport, his subsequent release after US officials dropped charges to allow Mexico to prosecute the case, and his recent exoneration by Mexico’s Federal Attorne...

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