Lira and Pacheco reached an agreement on the Precatórios PEC, today will be a busy day in Congress, and the Federal Audit Court analyzes the privatization of Eletrobras
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2021

Today, the Precatórios PEC is expected to be partially enacted. The parts of the PEC that were changed by the senators will be analyzed in the House next Tuesday, December 14. Lira and Pacheco's goal is to complete the analysis of the PEC in both Houses next week. The Senate should vote on the ne...

Putin and Biden hold virtual summit on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2021

On December 7 the two presidents spoke for 2 hours. The main topic was the Ukraine situation. The US is worried by the buildup of up to 175,000 Russian troops near Ukraine. Moscow insists that this is nothing menacing. The expert consensus is that there will not be a full-scale invasion and possi...

South Africa’s recovery momentum faltered in Q3 amid civil unrest and the third wave of Covid-19 infections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Dec 2021

As we had expected and predicted in previous reports, the South African economy contracted during the third quarter of 2021, with real annualized quarterly GDP declining by 1.5%. This was following four consecutive quarters of positive growth since Q3 2020, with growth rates of 0.9% q/q and 1.1% ...

Azerbaijan releases 10 Armenian POWs in return for minefield maps
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2021

On December 5 Baku released the men after Russian mediation. The release was facilitated by a meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in November 2021. 30 Armenians were captured by Azerbaijan on November 16, and 20 of them remain prisoners. Azerbaijan and Armenia still disp...

The impasse around the Precatórios PEC continues, the CAE of the Senate may vote on Sen. Jean Paul Prates’s report, and the leadership of the MDB should meet today to ratify Sen. Simone Tebet’s presidential candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2021

Some senators are calling for the PEC not to be enacted. Leaders in the House do not believe the deputies are ready to analyze the changes that were made. A solution should be announced this week as the government hopes to start issuing Auxílio Brasil payments on Friday. The Senate CAE may vote o...

​SAUDI: MBS’s Gulf-wide tour signals renewed confidence at a time of major foreign policy shifts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2021

MBS arrived in Oman today on the first leg of a 5-country Gulf tour, his first significant foreign trip in two years. It comes ahead of Saudi Arabia's hosting of the annual Gulf summit and could result in progress in both GCC relations and also on wider regional issues such as Lebanon, Iran and T...

Putin hails friendship with India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2021

On December 6 the Russian President visited New Delhi. He acclaimed India as a ''great power'' as he met Prime Minister Modi. India and the USSR were allies for decades. India has a more positive view of Russian than almost any other non former Soviet nation. This is the second foreign visit Puti...

GDP in the Third Quarter, Elevation of the Selic Rate and Outlook for the Economy in 2022
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Dec 2021

Based on the indications provided by the IBC-Br, the contraction of GDP by 0.1% in the third quarter came as no surprise. However, because of the need to raise the interest rate, putting it in restrictive territory, and the recent evolution of various indicators (of confidence, industrial output ...

Politics: Balance sheet and political outlook in AMLO’s third year in office
MEXICO · Report · 06 Dec 2021

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has just completed half of his six-year term. While his popularity has actually increased in the past few weeks and his supporters are more enthusiastic than ever, the results of his administration, despite almost daily glowing reports in the President’s dail...

Economics: Imports and FDI stats cast doubt on recovery prospects clouded by internal policies and the global context
MEXICO · Report · 06 Dec 2021

In previous issues of the Economic Outlook, we have analyzed the behavior of exports as an essential factor in economic growth perspectives, especially considering that in the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 it was the only sector in the whole economy with any dynamism. To complemen...

Is Auxílio Brasil enough for Bolsonaro and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco decide on the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC. The government is waiting for the decision to begin issuing Auxílio Brasil payments this week. The House may vote on Refis. In the economy, the Central Bank's final meeting of the year to decide on the interes...

Investment activity rebounds in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that investment in production capacity was up y-o-y by 7.8% in 3Q21 and by 7.6% in 9M21. Investment increased almost all across the economy apart from the mining sector (down by 0.2% y-o-y in 9M21). This decline occurred due to a 6.4% contraction of investment in the oil-and-gas....

Lira and Pacheco should reach a decision on the Precatórios PEC, Auxílio Brasil payments expected to begin on Friday, and the STF should resume trial on the case questioning the constitutionality of the transfer of certain public service concessions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2021

While some senators believe that the House should expedite the analysis of the proposal and review the changes they made, Lira supports the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC. The most likely scenario right now is the partial enactment of the proposal, but this depends on an agreement betwe...

Some initial signs of wage inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Dec 2021

1. Wage growth accelerated in September and will be a factor supporting inflation. 2. Private consumption growth has shifted from goods to services. 3. The shekel appreciated by 0.8% last week; fundamentals remain pro-shekel.

​Regarding Kemal Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY · Report · 06 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Over the weekend, the Financial Times published an expose about CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 11 years after he ascended to the throne of the party. I predict with 73.496% confidence that the WSJ and the Economist shall follow suit, thus it became incumbent upon me to steal the march on them.