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Moldova run-off election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

On November 1 a presidential election was held. No candidate won over 50% of the vote. The top two candidates now go to a second round. The lower placed candidates are eliminated. The second round will be on November 15.President Dodon is pro-Russian. The challenger Maia Sandy is pro-EU. Sandu wo...

A new strategy for reforms, a new budget, and the same political uncertainty
PANAMA · Report · 02 Nov 2020

On August 25, the President announced a national dialogue commencing in November, which includes topics such as the reform of the public pension plan, the rationalization of water, education, efficiency of national health services, and the Constitution. Our estimate for the timetable of the debat...

The BoI sounds rather optimistic; no further accommodation likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Nov 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators point to a gradual recovery The weekly credit card purchases have increased by 20% in the past two weeks (through 28.10) as the economy has opened up. The Google Mobility Index to the workplace has rebounded to close to pre-second-closure levels. Hi-tech service ex...

Election disputed in Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2020

On October 31 a parliamentary election was held and the ruling Georgian Dream Party claimed victory. The opposition parties reject this claim. Georgian Dream got 48% of the vote. Its main rival the United National Movement won 27%. The Alliance of Patriots (which is pro Russian) won 3%. Observers...

Tajik President reinaugurated
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2020

On October 30 President Rahmon was sworn in for his 5th term in Tajikistan. He has been in office since 2002. The president pardoned 378 prisoners. Four loyalists ran against Rahmon who won over 80% of the vote. Rahmon is 68% and in poor health. His son Rustam, 32, is being groomed to succeed. Ru...

A long and difficult descent
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2020

The Turkish political story has become too convoluted for any sane mind to follow and trace out conclusions. We do our best, but our judgment about the clear and present dangers to politics and economy are somewhat different than what we construe as the near-consensus view from abroad. First, we ...

MegaFon starts project to provide satellite data access
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2020

MegaFon wants to allow people on the ground to access data from low Earth orbiting satellites. MegaFon will invest USD 76 million between now and 2022 in researching new tech. MegaFon 1440 will be set up. That will be an R and D company. The objective is to allow high speed access to data from sp...

​GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit eases, Oman got Qatari cash, France faces boycott
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Oct 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil fell to a five-month low below $38 on Covid worries and revived Libyan production. * The Saudi Q3 deficit eased to -$10.9bn on stronger oil and VAT revenue. * Major r...

PM Orbán is promising Covid vaccination by early next year
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2020

In his regular weekly radio interview this morning, PM Orbán spoke very optimistically about the prospects for Covid vaccination in Hungary. He said that the first, limited amount of Covid vaccines will most likely arrive in December or early January. Using that shipment, the vaccination of the o...

Constitutional crisis: Zelenskiy makes a try to dissolve the Constitutional court
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Oct 2020 · 1 response

The Constitutional court ruling, which canceled e-declarations, unleashed a full-fledged constitutional crisis in the country. In light of the harsh reaction of society and western partners, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called yesterday for an urgent meeting of the National Security and Defense ...

Sberbank buying Rambler
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

On October 29 it was announced that Sberbank will buy Rambler Group. Rambler is an internet and media holding company. Many email addresses in Russia are called "@rambler.ru"Sber invested in Rambler in 2019. It bought 47% of the company for about USD 125 million: the figure is secret.In July 2020...

Spending on Government Personnel
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Oct 2020

In this report we analyze: a) the expenditures on active and inactive personnel by the state governments; and b) the current stage of the administrative reform in the federal sphere. Outlays on personnel represent over 20% of the total spending of the federal government, of which approximately ha...

Calvey civil case ends in a USD 32 million payout
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

Michael Calvey, an American investor in Moscow, has been detained for 18 months. The founder of Baring Vostok was accused of embezzlement. It relates to the ownership of Vostochny Bank. Calvey is under house arrest.The Russian business and banking community said the case has had a very deleteriou...

Ruling party in Ukraine does poorly in local elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

On October 25 Servant of the People lost the local elections. Servant of the People is a party only founded in 2018. It is the party of President Zelensky. His and the party's ratings have tumbled since he took office in May 2019.A party called European Solidarity has made a small comeback. This ...

The MNB has kept the 1-week deposit rate unchanged today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2020

The MNB has kept the 1-week deposit rate unchanged at 0.75% today, despite the weak forint, which is currently trading close to EURHUF 369.This is an important indication of the Bank's preference as to the EURHUF exchange rate. Previously, it seemed for quite a while that the Bank intended to kee...

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