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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fighting heats up between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2020

On November 6 the conflict returned to intensity. The Azerbaijanis shelled Stepankert which is the main city of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The Armenians reported 3 civilian deaths. The Azerbaijanis claimed that Armenia had shelled civilians in the town of Tatar. The Azerbaijanis, with ...

A robust recovery
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2020

The stock market, FDI and foreign reserves have all returned to pre-pandemic levels, while the fiscal budget deficit has expanded further. Fiscal revenue fell -6.4% y/y in Q3, and expenditure was down -1.9% y/y. Despite the global pandemic, and the still ongoing U.S.-China trade war, exports a...

Russian economy slows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2020

On November 5 the IHS Markit report revealed a large drop in the purchasing managers' index (PMI). The PMI for services fell from 53.7 to 46.9 in October 2020. That is the steepest fall since May 2020. The PMI is highly respected as an economic weathervane. A PMI under 50 means contraction. An un...

Russian stock market climbing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2020

On November 5 the Moscow Bourse rose as it followed on the coattails of a global equities rise. It rallied even amid the US presidential nailbiter. The MOEX Index rose 1.4% in the first minutes of trading. It recouped the value it lost last week when there was a large sell off. The RTS Index (USD...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: “Rescuing drowning people is the work of the drowning people themselves”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Politically, October In Russia appeared a quieter month than the previous ones as the Navalny saga suddenly evaporated from the geopolitical scene, no fresh comments on the Nord Stream 2 came from either side, i.e., its adversaries or proponents, there was no major news from the Belarusian prote...

Russian consumer spending down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

Russian shoppers spent less in early October 2020 than in any month since late May 2020. The second wave has scared people off main street. Economic woes have also slowed online shopping. Spending was down 11% Y o Y in the first week of October according to the Sberindex. Spending in bars and res...

​Supreme Court bows to the executive power
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Nov 2020

Amid the US election, which is attracting most of the media attention, Argentina’s Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government’s interests regarding the validity of the transfers of two judges who ruled against Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). A third judge who is still dec...

Why was Ant Financial cancelled?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Nov 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Thursday’s expected IPO of Ant Financial, dual-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, was suspended last night. It was an extremely visible transaction that would have been the largest IPO in history. • While there is a lot of speculation that the dec...

Limited new Covid restrictions were announced last night
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

PM Orbán announced new Covid restrictions last night, following a number of recent official indications that tighter rules were about to come. Specifically, a night curfew from midnight to 5 am was introduced immediately, together with the instruction to close bars and nightclubs, and a rule that...

The cancellation of the Ant IPO and the Chinese financial system
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Nov 2020

What does the cancellation of the Ant IPO mean for China’s global financial integration and for China’s economy? In a word, not much on the integration front, due to significant and continuing financial flows. Within China, though, the decision was a sign of policy confusion and an affirmation of...

Kyrgyzstan elects interim president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

On November 4 Talant Mantyov was elected Speaker of Parliament. The Speaker succeeds the president when a vacancy arises. President Japarov took power only two weeks ago. He is prime minister as well as president at the same time! An election is due on 10 January 2021 and Japarov is running. Japa...

Russian recovery stalling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

The Central Bank of Russia issued a report stating that the recovery has stopped. The government's response to the economic crises has ended just as coronavirus has rebounded. In Q2 and Q3 2020 the economy exceeded expectations. The CBR raised its predictions for the year. The economy is due to c...

Russian taxes to rise
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

On November 2 the VTimes published a claim that the government's plans to raise taxes for those who make over USD 63,000 a year to 15% is the start of tax rises for middle and low income people. Taxes rises will follow in 2024. Progressive tax is popular. 79% of people oppose the current flat tax...

Belarus general strike failing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2020

On November 2 over 1000 pensioners marched in Minsk. Many carried the red and white flag which was the national flag of Belarus in the early 90s. On November 1 a march resulted in 231 arrests. Men who are arrested are often beaten with batons on the thighs so their injuries will not be so visible...

Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2020

On November 2, Armenia said that 11 of its soldiers were killed in fighting. The ceasefire is more honored in the breach than in the observance. On November 2, Azerbaijan claimed to have taken back 8 more villages in Nagorno Karabakh and accused the Armenians of shelling civilians. President Aliy...

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