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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2020

On November 2, Armenia said that 11 of its soldiers were killed in fighting. The ceasefire is more honored in the breach than in the observance. On November 2, Azerbaijan claimed to have taken back 8 more villages in Nagorno Karabakh and accused the Armenians of shelling civilians. President Aliy...

Covid-19 weekly update − week ending November 2, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Nov 2020

We may be seeing the beginning signs of the industrial/FAI-driven stimulus weakening. Cement, rebar and float glass prices are weakening, and blast furnace operating rates are trending lower. This may simply be the end of the peak, and continued lending from the state banks will allow the stimulu...

Inflation edges up a bit in October, but probably more to come
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2020

Consumer prices rose by 2.1%, m/m, in October, broadly in line with the market consensus (and our forecast as well), taking the 12-month CPI inflation slightly higher to 11.9% from 11.7% in September. Reflecting the adverse impact of lira depreciation, domestic-PPI inflation showed a strong month...

Hungary's COVID strategy seen shifting: further restrictions expected later this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

Despite the PM Orbán's long-standing resistance to any further Covid restrictions, there have been a number of official comments heard over the last three days, which hinted at upcoming further significant restrictions in response to the constantly deteriorating domestic Covid situation. Today, c...

​OMAN: Tawazun plan light on details
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Oman has finally released basic details of its Tawazun fiscal balance plan, which aims to reduce the deficit to 1.7% of GDP by 2024. The proposal has confirmed some of the items that we have been anticipating for over a year, including an initiative to introduce a personal income tax, but the pla...

Politics: Three new factors for the 2021 electoral race
MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Three developments of the last few weeks could significantly alter next year's electoral outlook. The first involves the leadership of the governing Morena party, not only from now until the 2021 midterms but also during much of the run-up to Mexico’s 2024 presidential contest. In a series of pub...

Centrão: from a solution to the problem and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Despite the holiday on Monday, this will be a busy week in Brasília. In the Senate, leaders will try to make a deal to advance important proposals, including autonomy of the Central Bank. On Wednesday, an analysis of presidential vetoes is scheduled, and the government will try to postpone the se...

Final thoughts on the impact of the US election on the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The outcome of the US elections will have significant implications for the GCC. The possibility of a conflict with Iran would significantly increase in a second Trump term. Under Biden, a new nuclear deal is expected, but wouldn't be easy given the increasing hardline dominance within Iran. A foc...

Economics: Data points to a restrained and uncertain rebound
MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The data published over the past month has provided evidence of a considerable rebound in activity compared to the relative lockdown much of the economy experienced during the second quarter, although not enough to dispel expectations of a very negative economic performance for full-year 2020. So...

OFZ: Supply is evaporating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

October was the most successful month ever for the Finance Ministry in terms of OFZ issuance – it raised R1.5 trln. The main buyers were local commercial banks, which were offered floating-rate bonds with about a 50-bp premium to RUONIA. As a result, the government came very close to its annual b...

The BoI sounds rather optimistic; no further accommodation likely
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Recent economic indicators point to some improvement in activity since the partial opening of the second closure. Labor productivity in industry has improved sharply, which supports future growth potential. In Q320, non-residents and local institutions sold FX, while the BoI continues significant...

Nagorno-Karabakh & Transcaucasia: Recent dynamics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

October 2020 saw the heaviest fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia since 1994. This conflict has threatened to draw in several adjacent countries. In this report, we provide background on the conflict and examine its most recent geopolitical dynamics, including the Turkish dimension, and give ...

The state of the banking sector during the pandemic
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The Indonesian economy has been impacted by the pandemic in the past few months. Various sectors of the economy, especially sectors related to people’s mobility, such as transportation, hotels and tourism, have, with some exceptions, been impacted the most. In addition, retail businesses and rest...

Zelensky and Constitutional Court row over anti-corruption
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

On October 30 President Zelensky crossed swords with the Constitutional Court when it nullified anti-corruption laws and limited the authority of the National Anti-Corruption Agency (NAZK). Zelensky asked the Rada to annul the court's judgment.The court said that the penalty for making false stat...

Moldova run-off election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

On November 1 a presidential election was held. No candidate won over 50% of the vote. The top two candidates now go to a second round. The lower placed candidates are eliminated. The second round will be on November 15.President Dodon is pro-Russian. The challenger Maia Sandy is pro-EU. Sandu wo...

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