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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ukraine de-oligarchization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2021

On November 24 the cabinet passed a 20-point plan to implement the law on oligarchs. It is also reforming the judicial system. The objective is a diminution of oligarchic influence in politics. The National Security and Defense Council shall create a registry of oligarchs. The National Council on...

The Tax Reform passed under the authority of the law
ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

Ironically, it was the UNES party that allowed the tax reform to become an effective bill, to be applied next January. The bill passed by the authority of the law without changes since legislators could not reach an agreement either for its approval, its rejection or its archival. Legislators who...

Economics: November data shows further slowing as the country faces new inflation pressures
MEXICO · Report · 29 Nov 2021

In recent months indicators have been reflecting a slowing of economic activity relative to the first half of this year, a scenario we had long incorporated into our GDP estimate for full-year 2021. The news published in November only added to that picture. In many respects economic activity c...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

​The recent discovery of a new Covid variant in Africa, called Omicron, has made hopes and plans for a more relaxed and festive holiday season uncertain. The large number of new mutations seems to indicate an increased dissemination pace, although there is no evidence yet of more severe symptoms....

Exports keep improving
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

As predicted, Indonesia saw a small retreat in its economic growth in Q3 2021. The economy reported an increase of 3.51% from the same period in the previous year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 1.55%. This is the second positive growth rate for the economy since...

Moro gains traction as a "third candidate" and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

This will be a hectic week in Brasilia. The Senate will continue to discuss the Precatórios PEC. It will also analyze appointments, including that of André Mendonça for the STF. The STF continues to analyze the constitutionality of the Sanitation Framework. Jair Bolsonaro joins the PL. In the eco...

Energy shortage in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

The five former Soviet republics in the region are facing a paucity of energy in winter. Kazakhstan is the largest in area and Uzbekistan is the largest in population. Only the west of Kazakhstan is contending with an energy shortage although ironically that is the oil and gas rich region.On Octo...

Politics: Progressive militarization – a risk to democracy
MEXICO · Report · 29 Nov 2021

There has been growing concern in Mexico over the increasing role of the military in the country’s political life. While in recent decades the military has been called on to play a role in the fight against drug trafficking, historically the army has been politically neutral and its functions lim...

A quick data preview
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The week is packed with important data releases. In this post, we briefly comment on two of the upcoming releases: Q3 NIA/GDP data, which is due tomorrow (Tuesday) and November inflation data, due Friday. We also say a few words on the October trade data, which was released this morning.

Real estate further cooling the economy
CHINA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The Chinese economy faced more downward pressure in October. Industrial output was up 3.5% y/y, down 1.4 pps from Q3. Investment was also weak, with investment growth falling to 8% y/y in the January-October period. The adjusted monthly growth rate should be negative for September and October. ...

Rebound – but with challenges ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

Costa Rica’s Presidential elections will be held on February 6th, 2022. Right now there are 27 presidential candidates, none of them have the 40% of the vote, according to recent polls. Elections will gravitate around three subjects: unemployment, the cost of living and corruption in government. ...

The Precatórios PEC should be put to a vote in the CCJ, the Senate should begin analyzing several appointments including André Mendonça’s to the STF, and President Bolsonaro joins the PL tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The probability is for the Precatórios PEC to be approved in the CCJ, as it only needs a simple majority. However, the government is still trying to gather the minimum of 49 votes for the vote in the Plenary. There is no specific date for André Mendonça’s confirmation hearing in the CCJ, but Sena...

Kyrgyz Government parties win election and the opposition cries foul
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

On November 28 the results were announced showing that pro-government parties have secured 36 of the 54 party list seats. The Fatherland Party, the Trust Party and the Harmony Party all performed strongly. Together they took over 40% of the vote. Ray of Faith (a moderate Islamic party) also won s...

The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Nov 2021

Highlights: The Governor stresses lower for longer * The MPC emphasized that inflation in Israel is lower than in most countries and within target, allowing for patience regarding tightening. The MPC stressed the downside risks of another Covid wave, which appears more of a real possibil...

The shekel weakens on market volatility; the Governor stressed low rates for longer
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Nov 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro review:The Governor stresses low for longer The MPC emphasized that inflation in Israel is lower than in most countries and within target, allowing for patience regarding tightening. The MPC stressed the downside risks of another Covid wave, which appears more of a ...

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