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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Update: CPI-inflation in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

Regarding our note on October's good-looking inflation data, unfortunately we have found no good explanation, official, anecdotal or anything, on KSH's reporting a 6.8% mom decrease of the prices of telephone and internet services. Simply speaking, we see no announcements, news, anecdotal reports...

COPOM Watch: Bad Omens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

While the statement following last week’s Copom meeting was virtually identical to the previous meeting's (albeit with a slightly more critical tone toward fiscal policy), the minutes brought some changes compared to its previous incarnation. These changes, while not suggesting any commitment reg...

Economics: Gross fixed capital formation in August posts a contraction due to a significant weakening in construction
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The Inegi published figures for gross fixed capital formation as of August, which showed an annual -0.9% contraction. This was the first decline since February 2021 and is attributable to a -6.0% contraction in construction investment, while the machinery and equipment component increased 5.0%. ...

Haddad will meet with Lula to discuss the fiscal package, Deputy Hilton’s proposal on working hours is gaining attention, and the regulation of Tax Reform continues to be discussed in the CCJ
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, stated that he will meet with President Lula today to discuss the progress of the fiscal package. According to him, the President requested the inclusion of another ministry in the fiscal effort. The initiative by the PSOL leader in the House, Deputy Erik...

Politics: Judicial reform becomes constitutional, with no other option left for opponents
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024

On Tuesday, November 5, what was the last hope for opponents of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and newly inaugurated President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Judicial Reform vanished into thin air as, at the last minute, the Supreme Court failed by one vote to obtain the 8 vs 3 majority required to rule on its...

A (Near) Perfect Storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

Inflation forecasts point to a high likelihood of exceeding the upper limit of the target this year. Meanwhile, the Central Bank's inflation projection for the 12 months ending in June 2026, the relevant horizon for monetary policy, is 3.6%, indicating the need for an adjustment of approximately ...

Challenges surrounding the spending review package and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The government is expected to send fiscal adjustment proposals to Congress. In the Senate, two important bills are on the agenda: the new rules for parliamentary fund transfers and the carbon market. Additionally, the Senate’s Committee on Constitution and Justice resumes public hearings on the t...

Erdogan throws hat into ring----amidst war drums
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024

Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone after a brief experiment with “normalization”, which is a wind of fresh breath for Yours Truly, who has become a crisis junkie long time ago. Just like the good old days, each new dawn brings fresh shocks, most of which contradict the main developments o...

Here is the actual October CPI-inflation data: lower than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024

The headline rate is reported at 0.1% mom, 3.2% yoy, materially below the expected 3.4% yoy (MNB, ourselves) and 3.5% yoy (analysts' median forecast - see yesterday's note). Perhaps more importantly, core inflation was only 4.5% yoy, rather than the 5% indicated in the MNB's forecast chart, on no...

Data preview for tomorrow: CPI-inflation expected to have risen materially in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2024

Here is once again the MNB's forecast chart from their latest post-meeting presentation of October 22, according to which the headline rate should go up to 3.4% yoy in October, from the cyclical low point (so far) of 3% in the preceding month: On this graph, the MNB also predicted 5% yoy core inf...

Maia Sandu wins on 2nd round of the Presidential election in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2024

- Sandu wins 2nd round thanks to votes from abroad - Stoianoglo won in most districts inside Moldova - The country remains highly divided as it reinforces its pro-EU path On November 3, 2024, Moldova re-elected President Maia Sandu with 55% of the vote in the second round of the controversial pre...

Higher hopes in diplomacy meet higher inflation forecasts
TURKEY · Report · 10 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Ankara has Great Expectations from the second Trump presidency, some of which seem plausible. Yet, it is somewhat premature to make precise forecasts of exactly in which topic progress can be made in the troubled bi-lateral relationship, until Trump selects his cabinet. Additionally, what Trum...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, dividends support the Saudi Q3 fiscal balance, Kuwait’s H1 surplus shrinks, PMIs rise across most of the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * 8 OPEC+ members, half in the GCC, delayed tapering voluntary cuts until January. * Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s interest rate cut, but Qatar went further, and Kuwait held flat. * Gulf leaders congratulated Trump, i...

Russian macro: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Nov 2024

In 9M24 the Russian economy continued to expand, albeit with some deceleration in recent months. However, in 2024 in total it may grow slightly faster amid a low base in 1Q23. In the currently evolved geopolitical reality, the Russian government has massively increased budgetary spending, which h...

In between a rock and a hard place on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2024 · 1 response

In the last Inflation Report of the year, the CBRT revised the inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 materially upwards to 44% (from 38%) and 21% (from 14%), respectively (both midpoints). While the former is no surprise at this point, the latter revision is a bit more significant than we...

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