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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China’s lopsided economic activity
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Jul 2020

Very recent trade data from June and July shows a strong uptick in activity at Chinese ports. This is reflected in the bottoming-out of export data. But the specific data on exports by sector is not reflecting strong demand. Domestically, sales data shows China’s heavy reliance on infrastructu...

The NBU overtake completed: third member of the NBU Board removed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2020

I was overoptimistic assuming the new NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko will take a pause before totally removing the old team from the NBU. Ukraine placed Eurobonds successfully. As a consequence, tension eased and Shevchenko promptly moved on with cleaning the Central bank from pro-reformist peopl...

South Africa gets favorable IMF loan to support BOP against Covid-19
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Jul 2020

On July 27, 2020, the IMF approved South Africa’s application for emergency financial assistance related to the financing of its Covid-19 pandemic response, under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The amount approved totals US $4,286.5 million, i.e., 100% of South Africa’s quota for the fund....

​Still under GCQ
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Jul 2020

President Duterte announced today another 15-day extension of general community quarantine (GCQ) for Metro Manila and other key regions in the country. The decision was unsurprising despite earlier warnings of a possible return to more stringent measures due to the rising number of covid-19 cases...

Financial thunderclouds in the south
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jul 2020

Costa Rica will be soon be walking a tightrope, as various forces act in concert. First, the still-developing pandemic has affected nearly 16,000 people, costing more than 100 lives, and causing negative growth, high unemployment and a rise in poverty. Second, the fiscal situation is critical. Th...

The difficult debate about higher taxes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2020

According to news outlet G1, the special advisor to the Ministry of the Economy, Guilherme Afif Domingos, said that the government will include the following measures in the Tax Reform proposal: an increase in the exemption limit from the Individual Income Tax (IRPF); fewer deductions; a higher r...

Kazakh lockdown extended again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2020

On July 29 the president announced that quarantine is going to last a further two weeks. Some bureaucrats had hinted that some restrictions will be relaxed. Kazakhstan ended quarantine on May 11 but was obliged to reimpose it. Officially 86 000 people have caught the disease but only 793 have died.

No rest for the weary
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2020

The politics section starts with our suspicions that Ministry of Health may be underreporting COVID-19 cases, which, of course, is only a suspicion, but if true, it has very significant and negative repercussions for the economy, and public trust more broadly. Beyond COVID-19, we have articula...

President of Belarus has coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2020

On July 29 Alexander Lukashenka announced that he has coronavirus. He insists that he has a mild case. He is currently running for his sixth term as president. Lukashenka at first dismissed coronavirus as a psychosis. He refused to allow any mitigation measures to be taken. The president is 66 an...

SAUDI: Deficit rises to $29bn in Q2 but underlying fiscal performance looks okay
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jul 2020 · 2 responses

​Aramco drew on its cash reserves to pay a large dividend, so oil revenue fell by less than exports. Spending continued to fall as ongoing consolidation exceeded stimulus measures, including cuts in social benefits and the military. Even so, the deficit tripled q/q to $29.1bn. Part of the reason ...

Guedes conditions income tax exemptions upon the creation of new taxes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2020

After a meeting today at the Planalto Palace, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes indicated that an expansion of the range of people exempt from Income Tax (IR) will only be possible after the creation of a new tax to expand the government´s revenue base. The expansion of the tax base designed by the ...

Strong supply-side performance, weak demand side
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Since April I have been suggesting that China’s GDP growth rate in 2020 would probably be around 2-3 percent, well above most other estimates. As I expected, second quarter growth was stronger than most other analysts predicted, and I think we wi...

Growth forecast at 1.8% this year
CHINA · Forecast · 29 Jul 2020

GDP turned in a remarkable performance amid global pandemic, rising 3.2% y/y in Q2. Industrial output was up 4.8% y/y in June, and up 0.4 pps from May, though the growth rate has still not reached its pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state invest...

Afghanistan after America: Consequences for Russia and Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2020

The US is leaving Afghanistan after battling for 19 largely fruitless years. What next? American withdrawal is largely the only certainty here. U.S. President Trump is determined to pull out and has never wavered on this. Almost no one criticizes him for his intention to bring all the troops home...

The rate of unemployment is worrying, and the government is preparing measures
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2020

Data released today by the Ministry of the Economy, through the General Registry of Employed and Unemployed Workers (Caged), points out that the economy lost 1.19 million formal jobs in the first half of 2020. According to Bruno Bianco, Special Secretary for Social Security and Labor at the Mini...

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