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Rusal divesting itself of polluting assets
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

The aluminium company is starting a major restructure. The aim is to make the most of the green energy revolution. Rusal wants to ingratiate itself with environmentally friendly investors.On May 20 Rusal said it will break itself into two companies. One will produce green aluminium and the other ...

Politics: Campaign 2021 results forecast – Part One
MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2021

With less than two weeks to go before Mexico’s June 6 mid-term elections, Morena’s initial commanding lead nationwide appears to be slipping, according to several public opinion polls. All the surveys concur –albeit with discrepancies normal in the world of public opinion polls that often use dif...

Arctic oil spill could cost Lukoil USD 13 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

On May 25 Izvestia reported that the oil spill in the Russian Arctic is going to lead to fines for Lukoil of at least USD 8 million. However, if much of the oil in the Kolva River causes serious damage the fine will be closer to USD 13 million.On May 14 the oil spill at the Oshkoye field in the K...

EU bans Belarussian airlines from EU skies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

On May 25 the EU announced its response to Belarus forcing down an EU airliner on May 24. A Ryanair flight was forced to land in Minsk so that Belarussian dissident journalist Roman Prostevich would be arrested.No Belarussian airliners will be permitted in EU airspace. Belavia is the country's ma...

Economics: Covid’s toll on the jobs market remains even as restrictions ease
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2021

Mexico’s labor market in the first quarter of 2021 continued to be defined and deeply affected by the Covid pandemic. While formal employment as measured by the number of workers enrolled with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) dropped an annual 2.9% in the first quarter, it managed to ...

Pressure on the ministerial team and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2021

Congressional leaders are working on a deal on federal budget adjustments and presidential vetoes. The presidents of the Lower House and Senate will discuss Tax Reform with Paulo Guedes. In the Lower House, the Constitution and Justice Committee may vote on Administrative Reform. In the Senate, R...

The Tailwind of the International Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 May 2021

We have Despite the risk of a third wave of contagion, the Brazilian economy should grow by 4% or more in 2021. Since the vaccination program is slow and intermittent, and the government has never imposed a lockdown, most people continue to work, reducing the effects of the pandemic on economic a...

Turkey Covid Watch - May 24, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2021

The improvement on the covid cases front lost momentum this week, but there is hope on the vaccination front, with a large supply of Pfizer expected by end-May or early June. Overnight and weekend curfew and other restrictions remain in place till June 1, and whether they may be extended beyond t...

No agreement on Tax Reform, CPI hears Mayra Pinheiro and privatization of Eletrobras analyzed in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2021

The report on Administrative Reform should be voted on this week. An agreement on the form and scope of Tax Reform has not yet been reached. The COVID CPI in the Senate only has one testimony scheduled this week, but should meet on Wednesday to schedule a possible second testimony on Thursday.

With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics
ISRAEL · Report · 24 May 2021

Following the cessation of hostilities, the economy is expected to expand rapidly, but internal political uncertainty remains. A closer look at Q121 GDP numbers reveals strong export growth, as well as investments in equipment and private consumption (excluding new vehicles). Recent indicators po...

Belarus forces airliner to land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2021

On May 23 Belarus obliged a Ryanair air flight in Belarussian airpsace to land at Minsk. The flight was due to land in Lithuania. Belarus claimed there was a bomb on the plane to make the pilot land. There are allegations that Belarussian intelligence officers on the plane even started a fight as...

With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 May 2021

Geopolitics: Following 11 days of confrontation, a ceasefire was declared Friday morning which appears to be holding.The actual cost of this operation is not expected to be significant, but it will strengthen the position of the Ministry of Defense and its demand for a significant increase in the...

Three Weeks of the Condor
TURKEY · Report · 23 May 2021

Domestic politics has deteriorated into a farce, as a Mafia leader takes on the Interior Minister with Erdogan’s silent consent. We generate several scenarios about Erdogan’s silence and the endgame in this docu-drama. A new deal for up to 90 million does of BioNTech vaccines could end Turkey’s e...

Russia raises USD 1.8 billion in debt placement
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2021 · 1 response

On May 20 the first debt placement took place since the US banned its banks from buying Russian Government debt. Foreigners bought 47% of the Eurobonds (i.e. debt denominated in EUR). The government debt coupons were sold by the Finance Ministry. EU banks bought much of the debt.The US Secretary ...

Canadian company tries to defend assets in Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2021

On May 17 Centerra Gold launched an arbitration action at the Arbitration Insitute in Stockholm. Kutmor, which is a gold mine in Kyrgyzstan, is being sequestrated. The process is to be completed in August.Kutmor is the only project in the country run under a concession. The mine is Centerra's mos...

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