GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Dr. Marcelo Queiroga will take office as the new Minister of Health. President Jair Bolsonaro will meet with the heads of the legislative and judiciary branches to discuss pandemic measures. In Congress, we highlight the possible vote on the 2021 Budget. The Central Bank releases the minutes of m...

Inflation accelerates but remains fundamentally low

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 22.3.21February’s CPI reached 0.3% m/m, above expectations This was due to higher rental prices and an upward correction in clothing prices. Core inflation moved higher to 0.3% y/y from zero last month. The major forecasters on average now expect infl...

Little fires everywhere

TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2021 · 5 responses

We have, naturally, centered this Sunday’s report around the sudden and unexpected dismissal of CBRT Governor Naci Agbal over the weekend, who has been replaced by Mr. Sahap Kavcioglu, an advocate of low interest rate policies, an academic at Marmara University’s School of Banking and a former se...

Bulgaria tells Russia to cease spying

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

On March 20 the Bulgarian Prime Minister told Russia to refrain from espionage. On March 19 Bulgaria said it had arrested 6 Bulgarians who were spying for Russia. However, Sofia has not decided to expel any Russian diplomats this time which is what it has done several times over the past 2 years....

Russia increases key rate

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2021

On March 19 the Central Bank of Russia raised the key rate for the first time since 2018. Rising inflation and food prices obliged the CBR to change its monetary policy. The benchmark was gone up from 4.25% to 4.5%.

Lukashenka names two possible successors

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 19 Lukashenka for the first time ever publicly discussed two potential replacement for him as a president. He named the ex health minister Uladzimer Karanik and the ex Interior Minister Yury Karayev. Both are under US sanctions.Why does Lukashenka think either of these men might be worth...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil pulls back, Saudi GDP recovers in Q4, Bahrain breaches debt ceiling

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply after a five-month rally, and the IEA published its medium-term outlook. *Iran’s president criticized hardliners' obstructing efforts to secure US sanctions relief. There is still time for progress be...

Covid watch (3)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

Covid19 cases jumped again this week, with the case count reaching a record high of 7,103 today and the national weekly average rising by over 50%. The alert level is particularly high in Metro Manila which accounts for about half of the new cases and where hospital bed occupancy has been creepin...

Turkey's economy at the crossroads

TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2021

Our live webinar features Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada, with guest speaker Professor Asaf Savas Akat, as they discuss Turkey's current economic and political situation as well as its long-term challenges. This webinar was moderated by Tim Ash, Senior EM Sovereign Strategist, BlueBay Asset Man...

Russia withdraws ambassador from the US

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2021

On March 17 Russia recalled its ambassador from the United States. This was in protest at Biden's saying that Putin is a killer. Biden also said that Russia would ''pay a price'' for interfering in the US election and trying to help Trump win. US intelligence published a report concluding that Ru...

COVID-19 and poverty in Turkey

TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2021

This Special Brief by our political analyst is an attempt to reconcile macro-economic data that shows an economy that has suffered minor-to-moderate harm from the year-long COVID-19 epidemic and the rather conflicting information coming out of numerous polls and anecdotal sources suggesting pover...

Is the Central Bank strong enough for Arauz?

ECUADOR · Report · 16 Mar 2021

The legal actions conducted by Yaku Perez against the electoral results and the National Electoral Council already have a ruling from the Electoral Court, but are subject to appeal from Perez. Thus, the ruling has not been executed yet. In the unlikely event that Perez were to win the appeal, it ...

Election race is polarized, while recovery temporarily pauses

PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2021 · 2 responses

The presidential race has grown polarized, according to the most recent opinion polls. Although this is a surprise, in our January Forecast we suggested that this could happen during the last leg of the campaign. We described three possible scenarios: first, a strong winner emerging (with George...

Politics: Women’s condition, demands and movement

MEXICO · Report · 15 Mar 2021

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had at least a full year in which to rethink his mistake of having come out against the largest wave of women’s rights protests in the nation’s history. Following months of demonstrations sparked by especially gruesome murders of young women and girls and a l...

A Higher Interest Rate and Economic Stagnation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 15 Mar 2021

During the second wave of COVID contagion, which is working to contract the economy through spontaneous social distancing, the risk premiums have been rising (steepening slope of the yield curve and weakening of the exchange rate), and the Central Bank is poised to raise the interest rate. Added ...