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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​The circus is in town
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021

The 2022 presidential election is shaping up to be as we expected in our August Forecast report[1], i.e., a multi-contested fight.What we know at this time:Announced candidacy for the presidency: Senator Panfilo Lacson (age, 73), Senator Manuel Pacquiao (42) and Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso (4...

As Washington chides, economic recovery persists
UKRAINE · Report · 21 Sep 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to the United States was the most important event of recent weeks. Official Kyiv has been lobbying for so long to get face-to-face time with the White House that the very fact of the event was seen as a major success. The Ukrainian delegation reported many im...

​A timid and general sketch of the content of the tax reform proposal
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

The Dominican government delivered at the last meeting of the Economic and Social Council on September 15, the document Dialogue of Reforms 2021: Introductory Document for Discussion, in which it roughly outlines the content of the 12 proposed reforms for discussion with the representatives of po...

Ukraine prolongs coronavirus state of emergency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

On September 20 Kyiv said the state of emergency will last until December 31, 2021, at least. It is classified as a ''yellow epidemic''. This means there are restrictions on how many people can gather in public and it means mask mandates and social distancing. The yellow restrictions are not appl...

Russian parliamentary elections lead to victory for ruling party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

The outcome is no surprise. The United Russia Party is the main pro-Kremlin party although Putin has not been a member for over 10 years. United Russia has 315 out of the 450 seats in the Duma.Turnout was fairly low. It is alleged that the government ordered civil servants and soldiers to vote. T...

Caught in a crossfire, Castillo offers more government spending
PERU · Report · 21 Sep 2021

After seven weeks in government, the new president has proven difficult to read. Pedro Castillo’s indecisiveness may be explained by his being caught in the crossfire between his own supporters and the opposition parties in Congress. Castillo has so far kept a low profile: he has delivered only o...

A further 15 bps rate hike from the MNB today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

The Monetary Council held its September rate-setting meeting today. They also discussed the Q3 inflation report. A summary of the decisions and of vice president Virág's online commentary follows here.The Bank sees inflationary risks still pointing upwards. For the rest of 2021, they expect the h...

The Administrative Reform proposal and the court-ordered payments PEC should see progress in the House, the BR do Mar bill should be put to a vote in the Senate committee, and Wagner Rosário should testify in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2021

The rapporteur for the Administrative Reform proposal, Deputy Arthur Maia (DEM-BA), should submit a new text on the changes to be voted on this week. The Special Committee is expected to vote on the text on Wednesday or Thursday. Arthur Lira, Rodrigo Pacheco and Paulo Guedes should meet today to ...

Opposition discord and its consequences
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Sep 2021

With only two months remaining before election day, the opposition has failed not only to finish choosing all its candidates but also to practice consistent messaging as to whether it will even take part in elections. Moreover, it is neglecting the task of readying itself to be able to detect, do...

Politics: AMLO’s social budget priorities and what they really mean for low-income households
MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Where an administration chooses to allocate funding can provide a fairly reliable idea of that government’s real priorities, and a review of the 2022 spending budget reaffirms the priority President Andrés Manuel López Obrador assigns to social spending, especially when it comes to funding the pr...

Economics: Pros and cons in the government’s 2022 revenue and spending plans
MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2021

In our follow up to last week’s initial review of the López Obrador Administration’s 2022 budget package we delve deeper into its revenue and spending bills, which further confirm our earlier conclusion that the 2022 budget package suffers from many of the same weaknesses as its three predecessor...

Request for the payroll tax exemption bill and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

This week, an agreement may be reached on the court-ordered payments Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The Administrative Reform Committee may vote on Dep. Arthur Maia’s (DEM-BA) report. The House will analyze the urgent status request for the payroll tax exemption bill. In the Senate, the...

Turkey Covid Watch - September 20, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Cases rose substantially over the past two weeks, and should be expected to rise further, with schools having reopened. While the risk is there, we don’t expect new lockdowns in our baseline scenario, as it seems that Turkey, as several other countries, has entered a “new normal” of living with t...

Mapping the Path Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

THE MONETARY POLICY MAP – Next Wednesday, the COPOM will probably raise the SELIC rate by 100 basis points. After many fits and starts and confusing signs, the Bank’s president finally recognized that it will do “whatever it takes” to bring inflation back to the target. All the signals given so f...

The court-ordered payments PEC, the Administrative Reform PEC and the payroll tax exemption bill should be put to a vote, the rapporteur of the Pandemic CPI should submit his final report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Arthur Lira would like to speed up the processing time for the court-ordered payments PEC. The proposal was approved in the CCJ last week. Dep. Arthur Maia should submit a new report on the Administrative Reform PEC. The proposal should be put to a vote in the Special Committee this week. The Sen...

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