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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​The Government declared the State of Emergency, again
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Jul 2020

The deterioration of the sanitary situation due to COVID-19 in July forced the Government to request Congress authorization to declare, once again, a State of Emergency. Last Sunday, the Congress passed the authorization and on Monday the President signed the decree. The declaration will be in fo...

China virus check – week ending July 20
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a continued split between sectors relating to heavy industry and infrastructure and the retail portion of the economy. Power generation and steel production are at high levels while car sales dipped sharply in July, and other indicators of loca...

Protests in Russia over dismissed governor
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2020

The Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk has seen 11 days of protests against the dismissal of Governor of Sergei Furgal. Furgal is in jail awaiting trial for 2 murders allegedly committed in 2004. Up to 50 000 people in the city of 600 000 people have protested. The police have not attempted to preven...

US sanctions Russian governor
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2020

On July 20 the US announced sanctions against Ramazan Kadyrov and his family. Kadyrov is the President of Chechnya which is part of Russia. The reason for the sanctions is that the US suspects him of extrajudicial killings and torture.

The new head of the NBU talks about further prime rate decline
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2020

On July 20th President Zelenskiy introduced the new head of the NBU, Kyryl Shevchenko. As his first message, Mr. Shevchenko mentioned (a) intensified credit for economic activity revival, (b) reduction of the NPL portfolio, (c) macro-financial stability, and (d) intensified cooperation with inter...

Improvement in the government’s popularity to help the reform agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2020

The new XP/Ipespe poll, published today and carried out from July 13-15, shows an improvement in the popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro. Although the government’s negative (bad/very bad) rating is 45%, there is a clear downward trend. In the last two months, the negative index has fallen by 5...

Tax Reform: Will it happen now? and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2020

The main topic of the week is Tax Reform, the first phase of which will be delivered to the Congress by the government on Tuesday. The proposal unifies the PIS and Cofins taxes. The Lower House will function only​ on Monday and Tuesday, and may vote on the constitutional amendment that extends th...

Politics: An insufficient new National Security Plan
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2020

President López Obrador has long argued that his security proposals constitute a “new paradigm” that break with the actions of the two presidential administrations that preceded him and incorporate general aspects of his political project, an approach embedded in both the government’s national de...

The Good Performance of Exports
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jul 2020

Even with a weaker real exchange rate than the average during the period since the Real Plan (1994 to date), there was no way to expect Brazilian exports to expand in 2020 in a period of deep global recession. However, the slow pace of the recent decline has been surprising. The reason is the hig...

Can Hungary resist the global trend of Covid-19?
HUNGARY · Forecast · 20 Jul 2020

The outlook for the Covid-19 pandemic has greatly deteriorated over the last two months. Contrary to earlier expectations that the epidemic would recede during the summer though it might return when the weather gets colder in the Northern Hemisphere, the current prospect is continuous further spr...

Economics: A powerless energy program
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2020

The government has rolled out its energy sector program for the remainder of the administration that offers nothing encouraging. The haphazard way it seems to have been slapped together and its failure to address a vast array of essential issues is probably a good indication of the extent to whic...

Initial signs of growth deceleration
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jul 2020

There are increasing indicators pointing to weakening activity due to increasing restrictions on the economy; this trend is expected to continue in the short run. June’s CPI (-0.1% m/m and -1.1% y/y) came in according to expectations; core inflation (-0.5% y/y) remains well below target. Today th...

A lot of nothing
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The politics update you will soon be gazing at on your screens is penned with an extraordinary lack of enthusiasm, even an adrenaline drain, which left the politics author lethargic to the point of falling asleep on his keyboard. The 30-year veteran nevertheless rises up the challenge of producin...

Initial signs of growth deceleration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 20.7.20: Recent data suggests that growth has taken a downturn in July: Credit card purchases declined by 5% in the first two weeks of July. The Google Mobility Index points to declining activity in shopping/leisure as well as going to work. The Poalim PM...

KUWAIT: Emir suffers health scare just as credit rating put on negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2020

The 91-year old emir underwent undisclosed surgery on Saturday. The key question is when succession will happen and who will be the next crown prince. This all comes as difficulties in fiscal reform and determining how to finance the deficit have resulted in a series of rating actions, including ...

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