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Primaries suggest a defeat of the government in November
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

As of this writing, with more than 98% of the votes scrutinized in most provinces, including the City of Buenos Aires, and almost 97% in the Province of Buenos Aires, the results of the primary elections are final enough to conclude that the ruling coalition, Frente de Todos (FdT), suffered a con...

​Delta watch 6 (A new experiment 2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

After canceling at the last minute its decision to relax quarantine restrictions in Metro Manila last week, government announced over the weekend that it will proceed with the new system of granular lockdowns beginning September 16. The new system does away with the confusing alphabet soup of qua...

The Israel private sector purchases FX, despite CA surplus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

The private sector purchases FXIn Q2, the Israeli private sector were net buyers of 3.5bn USD compared to net sellers of 4.8bn in Q1. Despite the fact that Israel enjoys a large CA surplus, not all revenues from exports reach the FX spot market (but rather are kept as FX for future investments), ...

​OMAN: IMF forecasts fiscal surpluses from 2022 and sharp declines in debt
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

The IMF completed an Article IV mission to Oman in early July and its Executive Board concluded the consultation today with a statement and publication of the full Article IV Report for the first time. This is a quick assessment and we may provide further updates after digging through more of the...

Despacito
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

Upon conclusion of the second round of talks in Mexico City on September 6, the Maduro government and the Venezuelan Unitary Platform delegations issued a joint communiqué reporting the first two partial agreements and setting the agenda for the next round, scheduled for September 24-27. The meet...

The government of Hungary condemned an EU Commission move in a resolution
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

In a largely symbolic but still important gesture, the government cabinet has just issued a resolution to protest the fact that the EU Commission recently (on September 8) asked the European Court to approve a financial penalty for Poland, for not complying with a late-July EU Court decision, acc...

Opinion polls vs. the economy
TURKEY · Report · 12 Sep 2021 · 1 response

New surveys reveal that a summer of decent GDP growth notwithstanding, the broader state of the economy, unemployment and high cost of living remain the leading concerns of Turkish citizens. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the way Turkey is governed as well as on most policy issues, ...

Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

Weekly Macro Review 13.9.21 Recent economic indicators have been generally positive: Credit card purchases in August expanded by 4%-5% (according to our seasonal adjusted estimate from weekly BoI data). Sectors which witnessed a sharp increase in demand include hospitality and leisure, as well as...

As Duma elections approach expenditures grow well above the plan, but the federal budget remains in surplus
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 8M201 the federal budget was in surplus above R0.9 tln. In August alone expenditures exceeded revenues by a small margin (R0.1 trln) mostly since the government started allocating one-off payments to servicemen and military (followed in September by similar o...

Russia: Nord Stream 2 is complete
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

On September 10 Moscow claimed that the gas pipeline from Russia to Germany is finished. The pipeline will double Russian gas exports to the EU. The pipeline will obviate the need to send gas to the EU via Ukraine.Gazprom is the company behind the pipeline.Ukraine is worried that the pipeline wil...

Higher inflation in Q4 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

In August, inflation decelerated to 14% from the July pace of 18 percent. At the same time, the dollar lost momentum against the bolivar, appreciating only 3 percent. This marks a slowdown from the 24 percent jump seen the month before. Year on year, August inflation was 1,365 percent, down f...

Belarus and Russia economically integrating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Sep 2021

On September 9 the president of the two countries agreed on 28 policies aimed at binding the two countries closer together. Political unification is not on the agenda. Russia has long desired this but Belarus does not. In the long run the countries will have the same macro economic policy, said P...

Exports boost South Africa’s 2Q2021 current account balance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

Commodity prices have been reaching record highs in 2021, as global economic activity slowly rebounds. For resource-rich countries such as South Africa, this news is well received. As expected, the current account surplus widened in the second quarter of 2021 – to R343 billion in 2Q2021 from R261...

​GULF WEEKLY: IPO boom gathers pace, Qatar PMI surges, Abu Dhabi issues $3bn bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Sep 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Qatar’s PMI surged to its second-highest reading while readings for Saudi Arabia and UAE eased but remained steady. * IPO subscriptions began for Solutions for Stc, and Adnoc Drilling became the latest major firm to announ...

Nearing recovery
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

Q2 GDP numbers were anxiously awaited, given the collective desperate need to determine whether Colombia had returned to pre-crisis economic activity levels. Dane data shows that the country is almost there in aggregate terms, though there are significant sectoral variations. In general, services...

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