GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Today the Finance Ministry conducted three primary OFZ auctions and raised R49.4 bln (in three placements), the best result since the beginning of the year. However, the cost that the borrower paid looks high. As a reminder, last week the Ministry cancelled the placement of fixed-rate paper due t...

The government is struggling with mass vaccination

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

PM Orbán and his environment keeps proudly referring to the fact that in December 2020, exactly 4.5 million people were found by the Statistical Office in some sort of employment, only 14 thousand short of the level recorded one year earlier. That is a great achievement indeed, but unfortunately ...

The future looks clearer, but risks persist

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 09 Feb 2021 · 1 response

The Dominican Republic began 2021 feeling the onslaught of the second wave of COVID-19, internally evidenced by the increase in the number of infections and deaths, and externally by greater restrictions on international mobility - the most extreme expression of which is the ban on flights from C...

St Petersburg Exchange booming

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

Reddit has helped investment make St Petersburg (SPB) become the largest exchange in Russia. SPB trading reached USD 36.1 billion in January 2021. That was ahead of Moscow's bourse at USD 30.2 billion according to Bloomberg.SPB is mostly about Russian retail investors. SPB enables them to purchas...

Turkmenistan hosted Taliban talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

On February 6 Ashgabad had a Taliban delegation in town for negotiations. The Turkmen Government routinely denounces internal dissidents as Islamic extremist even if they are totally secular. But the government is in talks with the Taliban because Turkmenistan borders Afghanistan. The issues were...

EU states to expel Russian diplomats

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

On February 8 Germany, Sweden and Poland announced that each were expelling one Russian diplomat. This is hitting back for Russia's expelling a diplomat from each of those three countries. The EU diplomats were expelled for attending a pro Navalny rally.EU foreign policy commissioner Josip Borrel...

Russia’s current account widens in January which creates a solid base for economic recovery

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

Russia’s current account and trade surplus widened in January relative to previous months. The current account surplus reached $6.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $9.4 bn. In 4Q20 as a whole, the current account surplus at $5.5bn, and the trade surplus was at $21.5 bn. Based on the CBR prelimi...

An Unexpected Second Electoral Round

ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Feb 2021 · 1 response

When 97.5% of the votes have been counted, Andres Arauz maintains an undisputable first place on Sunday's presidential elections with close to 32% of the votes. On the other hand, the second place is still disputed between Yaku Perez (19.8%) and Guillermo Lasso (19.6%). This difference has been f...

Focusing on the essentials

TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2021 · 1 response

We urge our readers to keep their eyes firmly focused on the essentials, amidst the feel-good mood encompassing the EMs and Turkey. The nation is nowhere close to reaching herd immunity via vaccination, as new strains are running rampant in the population. Each day with lockdowns and shop clos...

Turkey and Azerbaijan conduct combined military manoeuvres on Armenian frontier

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 2 the two countries' armies exercised in eastern Turkey. This was close to the frontier with Armenia. Turkish troops are openly stationed in Azerbaijan. Up till now Azerbaijan has not sent a significant number of troops to Turkey.The ostensible reason for the drill was to practice fig...

Russia fines nickel giant USD 2 billion

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 5 a court fined Nornickel for the environmental disaster it caused in 2020 when 21,000 tonnes of diesel was spilled in the Krasnoyarsk Region. It was the worst disaster to hit the Arctic.The fine imposed is a record. Nornickel has argued the fine should be only USD 280 million. The ac...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden focuses on Yemen, Kuwait on negative outlook, BP sells Oman gas stake

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Feb 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Restrictions expanded across the region in response to the current Covid wave. * Oil has risen to $59, the most in nearly a year, supported by the voluntary Saudi cuts. *...

GDP set to grow more than 7% in 2021

CHINA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

We forecast Chinese GDP to rise 7% in 2021, less than our peers’ forecasts of around 8%. Our forecast is based on the global economic uncertainty brought on by the pandemic, and the significant chance that China will take countercyclical measures to address structural reforms. GDP climbed 2.3% y/...

2021–2022 Outlook: Crony Capitalism

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

This report lays out our central scenario outlook for 2021–2022, which we call Crony Capitalism. It assumes that the regime stays in power and keeps its policy framework essentially unchanged. Economic policy is pragmatic to a degree, but the government is unable to meaningfully improve expectati...

Russian macro: money markets becoming less distorted in 2021 as Minfin’s meddling set to subside

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2021

Ruble liquidity tightened in 4Q20 and continued to do so in January, as well, despite massive spending from the federal budget at the very end of the year. In December alone the government spent R3.9 trln (versus R2.1 trln in November). The federal budget deficit reached R1.7 trln in December, a...