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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Continuing weakness at Pemex and CFE could further squeeze public finance
MEXICO · Report · 10 May 2021

Roughly a month ago Pemex unfurled a revised Business Plan for the coming years that significantly scaled back production targets except when it comes to its forced-yet-troubled march to make Mexico self-sufficient in the refining of petroleum products. Strikingly, the text and other management s...

Initial assessment of the Covid CPI and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2021

Important issues such as environmental licensing and a bill on the electricity sector are on the agenda in the Lower House. The Senate may vote on blocking price increases for medication and on Pronampe. The Covid CPI proceeds with testimony throughout the week. Demonstrations in support of the g...

The government is betting on total openness; timing for fiscal pact decisions tightens
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 10 May 2021

With the arrival of 2 million vaccines from China, and the incorporation of the whole population over the age of 18 into the vaccination program, the government seeks to create conditions to proceed with the complete opening of the economy. In fact, in April the restriction on mobility has been r...

Inflation makes things go up and down
UKRAINE · Report · 10 May 2021

Inflation has become the main issue in 2021, and does not bode well for Ukraine’s growth prospects: industrial output fell in Q1, despite soaring export prices. However, galloping prices reduced pressure on fiscal accounts, adding extra inflationary revenues. What’s more, soaring resource prices,...

Monetary Policy: Continuation of the “Partial Adjustment” Cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 May 2021

Last week, the COPOM raised the SELIC rate by 75 basis points and promised (with some reservations) an adjustment of equal magnitude at the meeting in June. With respect to the overall size of the cycle, however, it continued affirming that it will pursue a “partial adjustment”. Since its task wi...

Turkey Covid Watch - May 10, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2021

Cases continued to decline this week and are now at less than one third of their peak three weeks ago. Serious and critically ill patients are on the decline. The end of lockdown on May 17 is nearing, and “normalization measures” - to include the reopening of schools - are expected to be announce...

More testimony in the Covid CPI set for this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2021

The COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate has scheduled several testimonies for this week. The president of the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (Anvisa), Antonio Barra Torres, should testify on Tuesday, former Secretary of Communication, Fabio Wajngarten, on Wednesday, a...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong
ISRAEL · Report · 10 May 2021

Unofficial bond tapering by the BoI is apparent, while FX intervention increased sharply in April. Economic indicators remain robust, especially business sector surveys and consumer confidence. The cumulative fiscal deficit in the last 12 months to April declined to 11.2% on strong tax revenues d...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 May 2021

Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery The Poalim Consumer Confidence Index returned to pre-Covid levels. Disposable income increased by 2.1% y/y in February. The CBS Business Survey points to expansion in most sectors. In this business sector survey, inflation expectations in...

Enter Twilight Zone
TURKEY · Report · 09 May 2021

Ankara has grasped the consequences of quarreling with all of her diplomatic partners. The new policy of reset or normalization is in full swing, but there are no positive results so far. That Ankara has changed strategy is commendable, but now it has to learn the art of compromise, or give-and-t...

Belarus' president provides for collective leadership if he is incapacitated
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2021

On May 8 Lukashenko signed a decree stating that if he dies in office or is otherwise rendered incapable of executing his duties then the Security Council shall collectively carry out presidential duties. Until now if the president died or was incapacitated then presidential powers would have bee...

Russian small loans soar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 Equifax Russia published statistics showing that the highest ever number of payday loans was issued in March 2021. Microloans were up 30% YoY. The loans totalled USD 418.5 million. The average size of a loan was USD 180. That is a tidy sum in a country where many people live on USD 2 000...

Renewed pressure on Lukashenko
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 the self-declared President of Belarus Svytlana Tsikhanouskaya called for an international conference on Belarus. She wants the EU to formulate a plan to assist civil society in Belarus. She also testified before the US Congress by videolink and requested tighter sanctions. On May 5 layw...

Russian Institutional Investors: Exposure to OFZ Boosted by Contraction of Deposits
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2021

In April, the CBR released data on investments of pensions funds and insurance companies for FY2020. The aggregate amount of assets of Russian institutional investors exceeded 9.5% of GDP. Certain acceleration in growth of assets was demonstrated by insurers due to generally low interest rates in...

​GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit narrows, Saudi-Turkey talks, new Qatar finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases rebounded in Bahrain but eased elsewhere in the Gulf. * Erdogan spoke with King Salman, and Cavusoglu will visit Riyadh next week. * The Saudi deficit narrowed to just -1% of GDP in Q1 but will deteriora...

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