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Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2020

Fighting between Armenia and AzerbaijanOn July 17 Russia offered to act as a mediator in peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two Caucasian countries have been firing across the border for 3 days and this has claimed at least 18 lives.Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Trea...

Debate on taxing electronic transactions shows signs of resistance
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2020

The initial debate on some items of tax reform, such as taxation on electronic transactions, defended by the economic team, already shows the first signs of resistance in the debate. Today, in an interview with “Rádio Gaúcha”, Vice President Hamilton Mourão said that he considers a new tax on ...

New head of Ukrainian National Bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

On July 16 the president nominated Kyrylo Shevchenko to be head of NBU. He previously headed Ukrgasbank which is state run. The appointment has been confirmed by parliament.

The Russian economy in 1H20: Strong rebound in some sectors in June, a few others to catch up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

Rosstat reported that retail trade bounced back in June by 15.8% m-o-m (not seasonally adjusted) which pulled y-o-y figure to -7.7%, i.e., well above the initially reported -19.1% and -23.2% May and April figures. The 1H20 y-o-y tally was down by 6.4% with prospects of some recovery in 2H20. The ...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ will taper, ICJ backs Qatar, Oman discusses VAT law, Sharjah bond
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is pressing ahead with its taper but Libya’s oil blockade is back on. * The ICJ ruled in Qatar’s favor over the airspace blockade but Saudi banned beIN Sports. * Th...

USA, UK and Canada allege Russia hack COVID-19 research
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

On July 17 three major Western countries claimed that Russia had attempted to steal their studies on coronavirus vaccine. They claimed that APT29 is connected to the SVR (Russian external intelligence agency). Russia is working frenetically on a coronavirus vaccine. The allegation is that Russian...

Reform agenda sees important progress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2020 · 1 response

According to media reports, the Minister of Communications, Fabio Faria (PSD-RN), held a meeting last night, July 15, with the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, and the President of the Lower House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ). The meeting was held at Faria’s residence, indicating a rapprochement ...

On the way to the presidential election through Covid-19
ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Covid-19 hit Ecuador on March 15, when the government ordered a curfew that for most cities lasted more than 70 days. However, the Ecuadorian economy has been weak since 2019, when GDP closed with a dismal y/y change of 0.1%. In Q1 2020 it fell 2.1% q/q and 2.4% y/y – the worst declines since Q1 ...

Russian economy shrank 10% in Q2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2020

On July 15 Russian Central Bank (CBR) published a report on Q2. It states that recovery will be slow and patchy. Production and supply chains have been obstructed. April was the worst month and the economy to grow in May when lockdown started to be relaxed a little.The report noted that oil expor...

Zelenskiy nominated ‘flexible’ Head of the NBU
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jul 2020

President Zelenskiy nominated Kyryl Shevchenko, the Head of state-owned bank Ukrgazbank for the position of the Head of the NBU according to Verkhovna Rada web-site. Mr. Shevchenko is the person who will be very sensitive to the requests of the President Office. Most likely there will be a pause ...

Bolsonaro sanctions new sanitation framework with vetoes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro sanctioned today, with vetoes, the new legal framework for basic sanitation. There were 11 vetoes made to the text approved by the National Congress. The new law aims to expand the presence of the private sector in the sector. According to Minister of the Economy Paulo Gu...

President Martin Vizcarra reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

This morning President Martin Vizcarra swore in 10 new members of his new Cabinet and two reshuffles out of a total Cabinet of 19 ministers. This is the largest reshuffle President Vizcarra has made since taking office in March 2018. The new Prime Minister, Mr. Pedro Cateriano, is perhaps the mos...

Panama moves backward (a bit) on its re-opening strategy
PANAMA · Report · 15 Jul 2020

The government of Panama announced a new quarantine schedule on Tuesday sine die, adding to the restrictions already in place (men could only leave home three times a week for two hours each day and women likewise, with a daily curfew after seven o`clock). Sundays are in total lockdown. Now, the ...

Russia sells more gold than gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

On July 14 it was reported that for the first time since 1994 Russian gold exports were worth more than gas exports. This statistic was true of Q2 2020 but not Q1 2020. Gold exports were worth USD 3.6 billion in April and May never mind June. Gas sales for April, May and June were USD 3.5 billion...

​Inflation remains low in June
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

The CPI in June came in at -0.1% (-1.1% y/y from -1.6% in May) similar to our forecast and similar to the Bloomberg consensus, although local forecasters were expecting an index of zero m/m. June’s CPI was impacted by a 8.6% increase in petrol prices (contributing 0.25% to the CPI), which was off...

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