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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Health Minister's testimony in the Covid CPI was largely positive
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2021

​Yesterday, Marcelo Queiroga testified before the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI). Many criticized him but, overall, his contributions to the Committee were positive and did not incriminate the president or the government. In relation to Tax Reform, the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo...

Trade strengthens
CHINA · Forecast · 07 May 2021

Growth is strong, weak investment notwithstanding. In Q1 2021, industrial output was up 14% y/y from Q1 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8%, slightly lower than in Q4 2020. In Q1, investment rose 25.6% y/y, and increased only 5.4% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 2.6%, much lower...

Alborotation
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 May 2021

Alboroto is agitation, excitement, racket, disturbance, commotion, ruckus and finally, riot. This is what President Iván Duque and his now-ex Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla generated with their ill-fated tax reform proposal, aimed at redistributing income from the middle and affluent class...

US affirms support for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2021

On May 6 the US Secretary of State made a speech in Kyiv calling upon Russian to end its ''aggression.'' Blinken warned that Russia has now withdrawn all the troops that it massed at Ukraine's border. NATO confirmed Blinken's assessment. The US has allotted USD 408 million in military aid for Ukr...

Industry and retail sales figures for March to be read cautiously
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 May 2021 · 1 response

At first glance, March industrial output (+16.1% yoy) looks spectacular, whereas retail sales for the same month (-1.7% yoy) looks ugly. But base-period Covid circumstances need to be taken into account in both cases. Actually, industry was up mildly, by a quite normal 0.4% on mom basis in March,...

MPC: ​Rates on hold, statement fuzzier
TURKEY · Report · 06 May 2021 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee has left the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 19% (simple), as expected. Regarding the broader economic environment, today’s statement now recognizes: 1) the resumption of the increase in commodity prices; 2) that the economic activity is still strong, b...

QATAR: Finance minister charged
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 May 2021 · 1 response

In a stunning development in the last hour, it was announced that the arrest had been ordered of Ali Shareef al-Emadi, Qatar's finance minister, by the Attorney General (QNA). It is not clear if he is in custody or the specifics of the charges being brought against him, described as involving "da...

Media focuses on the Covid CPI testimony, and the Joint Tax Reform Committee to work until tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2021

The media is focusing on two main points from former Minister Nelson Teich’s testimony in the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) yesterday. The first is the fact that he did not have the necessary autonomy to effectively run the ministry. And the second is Bolsonaro’s insistence on pu...

Bond purchases taper, while FX intervention accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 May 2021

Government bond purchase tapering is gradually taking place. In April, the BoI purchased 3.4bn ILS following 4.1bn in March and 4.4bn in February. The Governor hinted at this trend recently, justified in his view, by the rapid recovery of the economy. 62.3bn have been purchased out of the present...

Inflation and pork tariffs
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 May 2021

Yesterday’s announcement of a 4.5% headline inflation rate in April, itself unsurprising, appeared to have impelled the executive and legislative departments to come to an agreement on a revised import regime for pork products. The data showed that with the expiry of the 60-day price freeze on po...

EL SALVADOR: Authoritarianism on its way?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 05 May 2021

The removal of all five Constitutional Court members, as well as the Attorney General, was of the most striking decisions taken by the new legislators in their first day of Congress, on May 1, 2020. The constant disagreements of President Nayib Bukele with those officials, particularly strong reg...

Winter is coming - a quantitative review of COVID
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 May 2021

Over the last year, we have been analyzing the economic and political impact of the pandemic, anticipating the scope of this global shock on the local economy. In this report, amid a severe second wave, with an erratic vaccination program being implemented, we add a complementary question: How mu...

The ANC's Strongest Measure in Fighting Corruption within the Party- and perhaps in the country
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 May 2021

Today, the ANC issued a formal letter notifying its Secretary General, Ace Magashule, of his temporary suspension. The letter, signed by the Deputy Secretary General (Jesse Duarte), confirms that Magashule is suspended temporarily pending the outcome of fraud and corruption charges he is facing. ...

​Former Minister of Health Mandetta’s testimony in the Covid CPI had a large impact in the media
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2021

​Former Minister of Health Luiz Henrique Mandetta’s testimony in the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) had a large impact in the media. Today’s newspapers feature quotes from his testimony criticizing both the government and President Jair Bolsonaro, who, according to Mandetta, went agains...

Russia bans export of buckwheat
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 May 2021

On May 4 the government said that it had temporarily forbidden shipping buckwheat out of the country. The reason is that prices have risen 4.4% since the start of 2021. The ban takes effect on June 5 and will only be relaxed at the end of August 2021.220,000 tons of buckwheat were exported in 202...

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