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On February 24 the army issued a statement expressing its lack of confidence in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyam. The generals said that he was ''incapable of making adequate decisions.'' Pashinyan brought 20 000 admirers onto the streets in a show of force. Pahinyan said that the army top brass' s...

Economic resilience will stoke export growth

CHINA · Report · 25 Feb 2021

Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau, as is typical in January, only announced price, financial and PMI data. Producer prices increased fast between June 2020 and January 2021, and finally turned positive. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 1% m/...

Berat Albayrak is not the only problem TL is facing

TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

This morning CBRT was forced to raise required reserve ratios by 200 basis points across the deposit maturity spectrum to defend the TL.As I write these lines, around Istanbul time noon, dollar/TL did not respond to the additional monetary tightening step, which may be because of rumors surfacing...

No policy change, no surprise at all at today's Monetary Council meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Feb 2021

At its regular monthly rate-setting meeting today, the Monetary Council concluded exactly as we predicted in our monthly report published yesterday. The market also remained fundamentally unsurprised by the decision.The Council kept all policies unchanged and issued a statement that sounded rathe...

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2021

On February 22 the EU imposed sanctions on four Russian officials because of the incarceration of Alexei Navalny.The EU sanctions are less extensive than anticipated. Brussels is leaving the door open to compromise. Navalny's allies urged the EU to target Putin's billionaire cronies. The measures...

Politics: The geography of political violence, Part 3

MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2021

As we continue our series documenting how cartels and gangs are stoking all manner of criminal activities throughout the country and the political threat such violence poses to governance in this key election year, we turn our attention to the trends that have led to the pulverization of the once...

Discomfort in the Ministry of Economy and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2021

The government and congressional leaders expect to decide on the specifics of the new round of emergency stimulus payments this week. To make the program viable, the Senate should vote on the Emergency Amendment on Thursday, February 25, and send it to the House. The House and Senate may define t...

Nornickel will pay USD 2 billion fine and not appeal

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2021

On February 18 the mining giant announced that it accepted the fine imposed for a diesel spill in 2020. The company will not contest the fine in court.The owner of the company is Vladimir Potanin. On February 15 Forbes estimated his wealth at USD 30 billion making him the richest Russian.

Russia acclaims Myanmar coup

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2021

On February 17 Moscow voiced its approval of the new military regime in Myanmar (Burma). China by contrast has registered its anxiety about the situation. There is unrest in Myanmar since Aung San Suu Kyi was deposed. Defense Minister Shoigu visited Myanmar days before the coup d'etat. He was rum...

Provincial data

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Feb 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Although Beijing will probably not announce a GDP growth target during the Two Sessions this March, nearly every province in China has already done so, with an implied national growth rate for the year of 6.8 percent. • A recent BIS research report s...

High-heat politics burn hopes for agreement

ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Feb 2021

Those Ecuadorians who do not want a return by the Correistas viewed with hope the meeting held last Friday, February 12, between Guillermo Lasso and Yaku Perez, who have fought vote by vote for their right to contest the second round. A difference of fewer than 34,000 votes in favor of Lasso has ...

Economics: Inflation and wage hike effects on household income and formal jobs

MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2021

The inflation readings of Coneval’s food and non-food baskets have both been outpacing headline consumer inflation. The drastic changes in the composition of consumption that Mexican families have undergone during the current coronavirus pandemic imply that the evolution of the NCPI fails to dist...

Russia’s industrial output continues to gradually recover in January despite fewer working days than a year ago

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that the country’s industrial output contracted in January by 2.5% y-o-y. Mining was down by 7.1% and manufacturing by 1.0% y-o-y. In the same report, the statistical agency significantly revised up December 2020 statistics, particularly on the manufacturing side. The 4Q20 and an...

Politics: The geography of political violence

MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2021

In the second installment of our analysis of how security conditions have evolved in the past three years and what we can expect from those trends in this crucial election year, we are turning our attention to the specific dynamics of politically related criminal violence at a time when the abili...

Foreign investors were the dominant force in the FX market in 2020

ISRAEL · Report · 15 Feb 2021

1. The main sector impacting the shekel in 2020 was “non-residents” (foreign investors), while the Israel private sector had little net impact. 2. The trade deficit expanded in January due to weak exports and strong import growth. 3. We expect inflation in January to reach -0.3% m/m an...