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Russian national airline plans major expansion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

On July 13 Russian business newspaper RBK reported that Aeroflot intends to increase passenger numbers by 30 million. The business plan goes up to 2028. The airline plans to slash prices by 30% thereby cutting profit margins to the bone. Due to coronavirus there is less disposable income than bef...

Off air
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

Since its franchise to operate expired in May, broadcast giant ABS-CBN had been fighting a losing battle to secure a new franchise from congress. After a series of hearings by the committee on legislative franchises of the House of Representatives, the members finally voted last Friday to deny th...

A new chapter in the conflict between the Supreme Court and the military
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2020

The conflict between Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) Gilmar Mendes and the military continues to resonate in Brasília (DF). After the statement made yesterday by the Ministry of Defense that it will sue Gilmar at the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) because the minister associated the ...

Parliament has authorised PM Orbán to veto the 2021-2027 EU budget and the Next Generation instrument
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jul 2020

In a resolution proposed by Fidesz and approved earlier this week, parliament decided the following:'...the National Assembly calls Hungary' Government to act upon the following principles in the process of adopting the Next Generation EU instrument and the EU's Multiannual Financial Framework (M...

China virus check – week ending July 13
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends with a steady increase in several factors, including the freight index and traffic indicators, while property sales continue to skyrocket: 1) Coal usage in the power industry declined moderately. 2) ...

Abinader announced key figures of his economic cabinet
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 13 Jul 2020

The president-elect Luis Abinader has announced who will make up his economic cabinet. The head of the Central Bank, Héctor Valdez Albizu, will be ratified in his post for two years. Miguel Ceara Hatton, renowned economist with a long history of work in economic development, will be the Minister ...

New tension between the STF and the military
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2020

​After a period of less tension between the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the military, an event that occurred last weekend could bring new developments. When participating in a live stream last Saturday, STF minister Gilmar Mendes said that the Army was associated with “genocide” in referen...

Russian national projects to be postponed by up to 6 years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2020

On July 13 President Putin announced that major state infrastructure projects will be delayed because of coronavirus and the economic situation. The delay will be by 6 years in the worst cases. The projects had already been behind schedule and overbudget before coronavirus.The projects commenced ...

Russia’s growth and finance: dependence on oil price muted, growth trajectory unclear, balance sheets little shaken
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jul 2020

As the oil price rebounded in May, hovered around $40/bbl in June, and ascended a bit more in early July, the debate as to whether economies can return to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories was renewed in many countries despite high uncertainty. In some sense, Russia is lucky as this debate o...

What Explains the Behavior of Consumption in May?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jul 2020

In relation to April, real retail sales in the augmented sense (including automobiles and construction materials) in May recovered more than expected, generating a wave of optimism and revision of the projections about the severity of the recession in 2020. However, a detailed analysis suggests c...

Politics: Public sours on key AMLO policies
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2020

When it comes to everything from managing the pandemic and the economic crisis all the way through to the administration’s approach to fighting corruption, public opinion is turning decidedly against the president’s claims and policies. In recent months, as Covid-19 has continued to spread, Presi...

The government is working toward creating a social brand and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2020

Congress may resume discussion of Tax Reform. On Thursday, July 16, congressmen may analyze presidential vetoes. President Jair Bolsonaro sanctions the new regulatory framework for the sanitation sector. The president may also sign a decree regulating the law that deals with suspension of labor c...

Economics: AMLO's wellbeing claims wearing thin
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Less than nine months into President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s term of office, he officially declared that at least half of all families and 95% of poor households were benefitting from at least one of his administration’s cash-transfer programs. But mounting evidence pokes gaping holes in th...

A deep recession in 2020, but a strong rebound in 2021
PERU · Forecast · 13 Jul 2020

We are keeping unchanged our forecast for a 17% y/y contraction in the real GDP growth rate in 2020 and a 6.5% y/y rebound in 2021. Compared with the market consensus and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecasts, we are more downbeat in the near term but similarly upbeat on the 2021 rebo...

Additional fiscal stimulus is positive, if implemented rapidly
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jul 2020

The MoF launched a new fiscal aid program aimed mostly at small businesses, which will increase the fiscal deficit by 0.7% of GDP. Consumer confidence declined sharply in June due to renewed restrictions. The BoI announced a corporate bond purchasing plan of 15bn ILS. We expect June’s CPI to decl...

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