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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tragically disconnected
TURKEY · Report · 02 May 2021

Turkey’s, what the politics author had dubbed, “saddle-point political equilibrium”, faded into a governance crisis over the past two weeks, with President Erdogan almost completely losing touch with the basic exigencies of the political and economic ecosystem he is in charge of. As a result, the...

Navalny's organization outlawed for being 'terrorist-linked'
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2021

On April 30 the Foundation Against Corruption (FBK) was banned. Rosinfomonitoring claimed that FBK is connected to terrorism. The government can now freeze FBK bank accounts.A court is likely to rule that FBK is extremist next week. FBK has 50 regional offices. These will be sequestrated. Anyone ...

Covid reopening took place on Labor Day, Covid data looks OK for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2021

The reopening measures announced a few days ago became effective yesterday, as the number of first-shot vaccinated people had exceeded the 4 million mark domestically (4.064 million or 42% of the whole population by this morning). The basic rule is that pretty much everything, including shops, se...

Economic activity is flat y-o-y in 1Q21, key rate hikes to limit growth going forward
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that in 1Q21 output of the five basic sectors was flat y-o-y, while in March, it increased by 2.4% y-o-y. Even though trends in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, and trade (retail and wholesale) that contribute to over 60% of the country’s economic activity, were un...

Today is the deadline of the Joint Committee on Tax Reform, but the rapporteur has not yet submitted his report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2021

Today is the deadline of the Joint Committee on Tax Reform, but the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro, has not yet submitted his report. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that the Tax Reform proposal will become public starting next week so that party leaders and governors will hav...

​GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s negative on Bahrain, S&P affirms Sharjah, QP might issue $10bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s put Bahrain on negative outlook and sees debt rising to 140% of GDP by 2023. * S&P affirmed Sharjah but sharply cut its fiscal outlook, with debt up to 63% of GDP by 2024. * Its update on RAK was more positive, wi...

Huarong and state defaults
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Apr 2021

The Huarong near default was important because a) it is the largest of the country’s Asset Management debt workout firms; b) it is 61 percent owned by the Ministry of Finance, making it directly owned by the central government; and c) it is has a significant amount of outstanding bonds, both dome...

Covid-19 eases its grip and the growth outlook improves
PANAMA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

So far this year the IMAE is showing a decrease of 9.73% for February and 12.2% during the first two months of the year. We must take this information cum granus salis because, during the first quarter of 2021, most commercial activities were shut down because of the pandemic. In contrast, in 202...

Mobility restrictions for the holiday
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

Indonesia is in the midst of the fasting month, the Ramadan. In the second week of May 2021, the holidays will start and they are usually full of celebrations, among families and in communities. Prior to the holidays, millions of people will go back to their hometowns and villages to see their pa...

Russia bans US from hiring most Russian staff
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2021

On April 30 the United States announced that it is obliged to reduce services drastically at its Moscow Embassy. Non-emergency services will no longer be available. The change shall take effect from May 12, 2021. That is because Russia has limited the number of Russians allowed to work for the em...

Russia dispatches medical supplies to India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2021

On April 28 Russia said that transport planes will fly to India bearing 22 tons of aid. India is struggling under a huge outbreak of coronavirus. Medicines, ventilators, oxygen and other items have been dispatched.Russia said the aid was a matter of fraternal compassion. Sputnik is due to arrive ...

​Economic growth in March 2021 was 10.6%, compared to March 2020
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The recovery of the Dominican economy strengthened last March. The growth of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) was 10.6%, compared to the same period in 2020. This is the second consecutive month where economic activity in 2021 continues to expand, exceeding the existing levels in Feb...

Brazil bans Sputnik V as contaminated
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2021

On April 29 Brazil's health regulator said that the Russian vaccine carried a virus that causes the common cold. Brazil doubted the integrity of the manufacturing process. It seems the problem is one of quality control and not all doses of Sputnik V are defective.Russia vigorously disputed the al...

Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolev replaced with his ex-colleague Yuriy Vitrenko, one more concern for the IMF prospects
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Apr 2021

We have another discouraging piece of news from our leadership. The Cabinet fired CEO of Naftogaz Andriy Kobolev, openly ignoring the independence of the supervisory board of the company. The Cabinet leveraged a legal trick to remove Kobolev. The head of the management board could be fired only w...

Inflation report: optimistic and elusive
TURKEY · Report · 29 Apr 2021 · 2 responses

The CBRT has released the second Inflation Report of the year, which, of course, was Governor Sahap Kavcioglu’s first report presentation, where he read prepared remarks including, oddly enough, during the Q&A session. In the report, the Bank, raised its inflation forecast for end-2021 by 2.8 ...

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