GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Increasing the scope of the welfare state and strengthening the state presence nationally, two key tenets of the 1991 Constitution, have raised government spending over the last three decades. Given the public spending pressures generated by the pandemic, and the need to start a fiscal adjustment...

Politics: Local and global barriers to the vaccination effort

MEXICO · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The spread of Covid-19 in Mexico has proven much worse this winter than had been expected, with no break in sight. The latest evidence points out that the country is among the worst nations in managing the pandemic. Despite the gravity of the situation, the government failed to rectify its mis...

A more agitated political environment in Brasilia and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Congress and Superior Courts resume activity. In the Senate, the election for the presidency is scheduled for Monday, February 1, at 4pm, and in the House, at 7pm. The truckers’ strike scheduled for this Monday is unlikely to receive much support. Material for the production of the CoronaVac vacc...

Economics: Data heightens 2021 economic tasks

MEXICO · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The economic news of the past month showed some signs of an easing of the recessionary panorama as the -3.3% yoy fall in industrial activity for November was one of the least pronounced negative results of 2020 thanks largely to gains in some components of the manufacturing sector. However, the d...

A longer-lasting trade surplus

INDONESIA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Indonesia has enjoyed a number of commodities booms in the past few decades. These range from sugar, to rubber, to oil, with the most recent being the coal and CPO booms. These rapid periods of growth in commodities helped the trade balance and also increased the welfare of the people, which even...

A chance for negotiations in 2021

VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

This year may bring mediated talks between Venezuela’s regime and opposition. The United States and European Union both want to push for a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis that leads to competitive elections, making sure the required institutional changes are implemented. Maduro ha...

Special Report - Why did Armenia lose the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

CIS POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Now that the dust has settled on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict the pundits have been able to opine on the reasons for Armenia’s heavy defeat. They have also been able to draw inferences from how the two nations fought and why one emerged so patently on top. The conflict ended with a ceasefire ...

Q&A on politics and the economy

TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Support for both President Erdogan and the AKP-MHP alliance seem to be declining in the polls, as the epidemic flares up once again, while poverty and unemployment are wreaking havoc across the nation. The base-case scenario is Turkey remaining under restrictions through the second quarter of the...

Sberbank investing USD 400 million in online retail

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2021

On January 28 Russia's biggest bank announced it aims to become the country's main online retailer, too. It has signed a memorandum of intent to increase its stake in Goods.Ru. The bank wants to buy an extra stake in Goods.Ru from M.Video-Eldorado Group for USD 52 million.Sber's stake in Goods.Ru...

OFZ issuance: poor start of the year

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2021

The first month of the year 2021 was not fruitful for the Finance Ministry in terms of the borrowing on the local market. Since the beginning of the year, the government has managed to place OFZ worth only R61.1 bln, which is a very poor result given the annual plan of R3.7 trln. Demand from inte...

Central America and Caribbean Outlook 2021 - Post-pandemic progress - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Dominican Republic and Panama

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2021

Our live webinar features Francisco de Paula Gutierrez, Felix Delgado, Magdalena Lizardo and Marco Fernandez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Esteban Tamayo, Citi Research Economist for Colombia, Peru and the...

Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house, which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by th...

Russia’s economic performance has seemingly improved in 4Q20, albeit accelerated inflation suppressed real retail sales

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s retail sales contracted by 4.1% in 2020. Food retail was down by 2.6%, while non-food retail dropped by 5.2%. These numbers are generally in line with expectations. As inflation accelerated in 4Q20, retail sales decreased in this quarter more...

Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by the...

Recovery outlook: neither bad nor good

UKRAINE · Forecast · 28 Jan 2021

Ukraine survived 2020 rather smoothly, compared to the rest of the world. Economic growth dropped by 4.5% y/y, which is a very good result for Ukraine in the storm of global crisis. Incomes continued to grow. The current account balance reached an astonishing surplus of $6.9 billion, or 4.6% of ...