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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Morena scores gains on the state level along with losses in the aggregate vote
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2021

Analysts across the political spectrum are studying Morena's performance in the June 6 mid-term elections. At stake is the future of the Fourth Transformation, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s project for a radical transformation of Mexican society. Continuing the 4T after AMLO leaves offi...

Economics: Banxico increases interest rate to 4.25% in bid to control inflation
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2021

On Thursday, Banxico increased the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, surprising the market, which generally expected it to remain unchanged as part of a temporary pause following 12 consecutive rate declines since August 2019. The change in the benchmark rate reflects Banxico's intention...

The outlook on Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2021

The House begins to discuss the bills that deal with Tax Reform (the income tax and the Contribution on Goods and Services). The Senate may vote on Provisional Measure 1040/21, which improves the business environment, and the program on tax debts. On July 1, the Superior Courts begin their mid-ye...

Inflation Reports – Points and Counterpoints
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jun 2021

Well-prepared Inflation Reports help to understand the progress of the economy by attaching the proper weights to the risks and forecasting the monetary policy movements. In the last Inflation Report (IR), the Central Bank sought to demonstrate that the elevation of the SELIC rate to a level comp...

Turkey Covid Watch - June 28, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2021

Covid cases remained low in the 5-6K range over the past two weeks and vaccinations are up sharply. Curfews will end as of July 1. The circulation of the delta variant is still limited, but an expected surge in travel from Russia poses a risk of importing more cases.

US Embassy in Moscow barely functioning despite detente
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2021

On June 28 the US Ambassador to Russia announced that as of August 1 2021 most consular services will be suspended until further notice. That is because of the shortage of clerical staff. Russia forbade the embassy from hiring non-Americans in May 2021. Therefore, the embassy does not have the st...

Dep. Ricardo Barros denies involvement in the purchase of Covaxin, State Dep. Fausto Junior and businessman Carlos Wizard testify in the COVID CPI this week, and the Tax Passport may also be voted on this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2021

Senator Alessandro Vieira is working on summoning Deputy Barros to the COVID CPI. Senator Randolfe Rodrigues wants the Prosecutor General of Brazil to investigate President Jair Bolsnaro on the Covaxin issue. The Senate may vote on Provisional Measure 1040 and the Tax Passport.

OFZ: Institutional investors build exposure to OFZ, but pace is likely to decline
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jun 2021

Russian institutional investors continued to build their OFZ portfolio in 1Q21, according to CBR data, by R46 bln (1.8%). Despite the negative dynamics of ruble interest rates in the beginning of 2021, they continued to increase their exposure to OFZ, adding 2% in nominal terms in 1Q21. We suppos...

Preparing for talks
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jun 2021

Groundwork is being laid for talks sponsored by Norway to take place between the government and the opposition. They might begin in August. Both sides seem motivated, given that the Maduro government needs sanctions lifted so it can govern, and the opposition needs to re-engage its base. At th...

Initial signs of (modest) slowing demand
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Jun 2021

We estimate that private consumption demand declined modestly in June, following strong growth YTD. Shekel appreciation has erased the increase in import prices in shekel terms. The PMI is reflecting rapid growth in both export and domestic orders; raw materials prices have also increased. The ne...

Coronavirus surging in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jun 2021

On June 25 Russia saw its largest rise in coronavirus cases since January 2021. There were 98 deaths from the pandemic in Moscow and 98 in St Petersburg. That is the highest coronavirus death toll for either city since the pandemic began.Russia was very proud of how well it handled coronavirus. I...

Initial signs of (modest) slowing demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Jun 2021

Highlights: Some initial signs of slowing demand We estimate that credit card purchases declined by 2%-3% m/m (sa) in June, from looking at the weekly data provided through 22.6. On the other hand, the PMI increased by 3.5 points to 56.1 in May as both domestic and export orders increased rapidly...

Anchorless in Ankara
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jun 2021 · 1 response

In this econ-only Weekly, we briefly discuss the key data releases and developments of the past week. Almost all confidence indices – consumer and sectoral – as well as manufacturing sector capacity utilization, improved in June, which likely owes to the easing of lockdowns, rather than porten...

Essential CIS Politics: June 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2021

* Russia’s recovery continues apace, with the RUB rising and record-breaking reserves. * Inflation spurred the Russian Central Bank into raising its interest rate to 5.5%. * The St. Petersburg Economic Forum was relatively successful considering coronavirus is still a threat and...

Markets like US-Russia detente
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2021

Since Biden's meeting with Putin the markets have reacted positively. It could mean the first sustained period of smooth sailing after over a year of shocks. On June 18 the RUB reached its highest level in over 12 months against the USD, and the Russian stock market is at its highest ever level.T...

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