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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Governability at risk, Part I
MEXICO · Report · 01 Mar 2021

No one ever doubted that this year’s midterm elections would greatly magnify political tensions, especially as the contest begins to hit its stride, with competing camps' getting down to the work of defining one another and their respective candidates with the usual mix of negative and sometimes ...

Main questions about the Emergency PEC and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2021

In the Senate, the highlight is the vote on the Emergency PEC. In the House, we expect the permanent committees to be installed. Regarding the economy, we highlight the release of the 2020 GDP results on Wednesday. This week's Talking Points: * The Emergency PEC: main questions. ...

Eonomics: February data point to future challenges
MEXICO · Report · 01 Mar 2021

Even as some branches of industrial and service activity continued to pare their losses from the lows of 2020 and the trend remains toward a reopening of activity, GDP contracted -4.3% in the fourth quarter (and -8.2% for 2020), with health the only service sector to show growth. We expect a simi...

​Growth 2020: A Pyrrhic Victory of sorts
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2021

The Turkish economy grew by a somewhat lower than expected 5.9%, y/y, and 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of 2020. For the year as a whole, GDP hence grew by 1.8% in 2020, making Turkey one of the two G-20 countries, next to China, that registered positive growth in a devastating, pandemic-hit ye...

Hi-tech services continue to support growth
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Mar 2021

* Hi-tech service exports expanded rapidly in Q420, supporting shekel appreciation. * Rapid growth of employment in the hi-tech sector (high income) is expected to support higher rental prices. * The economy is opening up rapidly, supporting economic growth and lower unemployment. * ...

Improvement in the economy
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Mar 2021

Indonesia has already seen a certain measure of improvement in the economy in the past quarters. While the country experienced a painful situation due to the restrained mobility from the pandemic, which led to a semi-lockdown in Q2 2020, Indonesia has continued to improve, slashing the negative g...

From a bright economic history to the current negative narrative: the case of Panama in 2021-2022
PANAMA · Report · 01 Mar 2021

February´s IMF country report analyzes the Panamanian economy in the context of the approval of the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) of US$ 2.7 BB. The IMF usually is bullish concerning Panama, and the document follows that pattern, describing its macroeconomic trajectory and its growth pot...

FixPrice prepares London IPO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2021

On March 1 FixPrice said it is preparing for Russia's greatest foreign IPO since 2014.FixPrice is the country's main chain of discount stores. It has commenced bookbuilding for its IPO. The aim is to raise over USD 1.5 billion in cash to fund new stores in Russia. The company might be worth as mu...

​January Trade Balance surprised on the upside
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2021

Most market attention will be set today on Alberto Fernandez’s speech during the opening sessions of Congress, which is expected to happen at noon, local time. This said, in this opportunity, we would like to review January’s trade balance published Friday afternoon. Even though the December to F...

Moldova receives first vaccines from Romania
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2021

On February 26 the first batch of coronavirus vaccines were flown to Chisinau. Romania has promised to gift 200,000 doses of its share of the EU vaccine to Moldova. Moldova and Romania are neighbors. They share the same language though Moldova also has Russian as an official language.

Hi tech service exports continue to support growth (and the shekel)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Feb 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro wrap up: The BoI sounds more optimistic Rates and accommodation remained unchanged last week. Nevertheless, the rate announcement sounded more upbeat, in light of rapid vaccinations and opening up of the economy “The fast pace of the inoculation process in Israel in...

Beware the Ides of March
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2021 · 1 response

February started poorly for Mr. Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance, turning into a rout by the end of the month. The administration couldn’t deliver any tangible progress on the economy or the COVID-19 epidemic fronts, with bigger defeats occurring in the political arena, where to quote one savvy s...

Relations between Russia and US at rock bottom over Syria and Crimea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2021

On February 26 Moscow condemned US air strikes on Syria. The attacks supposedly killed Iranian militants. Russia is a stalwart ally of Syria.On February 26 President Biden said that Crimea belongs to Ukraine, and the United States shall never recognize it as Russian land. There has been an increa...

Ukraine receives vaccines from India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2021

On February 23 a consignment of 500,000 doses of AtsraZeneca arrived in Ukraine from India. Ukraine has finally started vaccinating people. Kyiv has refused to purchase Sputnik V, and Western vaccines are too expensive for Ukraine. The EU has a program to provide Eastern European nations with vac...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2021

* Pro-Navalny protests in Russia were attended by EU diplomats, leading to tit-for-tat expulsions and jeopardizing Nord Stream 2. * Coronavirus is falling in Russia, and restrictions are easing but vaccination is very slow. * Ukraine, under US pressure, banned a Chinese compa...

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