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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

General government deficit at 4.6% of GDP in January-September 2020
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

This was reported yesterday, as the main fiscal indicator, an annualized number compiled on accrual basis, following the EU's ESA-2010 government finance statistics methodology. In a quarterly breakdown, there was a 1.2% of GDP deficit in Q1, followed by 8.4% in Q2 and 4.1% in Q3. The quarterly p...

OPEC + agreement leads to Russia increasing oil output.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

On January 5 it was announced that oil production will be ramped up a little in March in Russia and Kazakhstan. These two countries are not OPEC members but they cooperate with it through a forum called OPEC+. The amount of crude oil withdrawn from the market will be reduced from 7.2 million BPD ...

Second COVID-19 wave smacks economic recovery
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 06 Jan 2021

The second wave of COVID-19 has overshadowed expectations for 2021 consolidation of the economic recovery formed after the announcement of the availability of vaccines, and the prospects for extensive worldwide vaccination campaigns. In December it grew evident that the country was entering a sec...

Minfin’s borrowing program remains ambitious
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

Despite better-than-expected execution of the borrowing program in 2020, Russia’s Finance Ministry plans to keep a relatively high pace of OFZ issuance in 1Q21, which is comparable with the results achieved in the second and third quarters of 2020. To remind, it managed to raise R5.3 trln on the ...

Russia to build a pipeline to Pakistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2021

On January 4 it was announced by the Pakistani Prime Minister's Office that Pakistan and Russia shall build a 1 100 km LNG pipeline and gas terminals. Construction is due to commence in July 2021. Pakistan will own at least 51% of the pipeline and Russia the rest.Sui Northern Gas co and Sui North...

Gulf rift resolution expected tomorrow
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

Kuwait's foreign minister has just announced (6.51pm GMT / 1.51pm EST) that Saudi Arabia will reopen its land and air borders to Qatar this evening, the day before it hosts the GCC Summit (Kuna-Arabic). We had heard reports a few hours earlier that officials at the border had been instructed to p...

Iran pays compensation to Ukraine for shooting down plane in 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

On December 30 Iran announced that it shall pay USD 150 000 to each of the families of the 176 people killed when Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner in 2019. The Ukraine International Airlines jet was shot down by the Iranian military minutes after taking off from Tehran. The majority of the pas...

Rates remain stable today, with a more upbeat undertone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

Governor Yaron sounds more optimistic Policy rates remained stable at 0.1% today, as expected. In the press conference, BoI Governor Yaron sounded cautiously optimistic, stating that he sees a greater probability of the optimistic growth scenario of the BoI Research Dept (6.3% in 2021 and 5.8% in...

December inflation: 15 is the new 10?
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2021

Consumer prices rose by 1.25%, m/m, in December, higher than the consensus forecast of 0.9%, but broadly in line with ours. As a result, the 12-month CPI inflation increased further, ending the year at 14.6%, up from 14% in November, and 11.8% at end-2019, therefore missing the target by a wide m...

More clarity about vaccination and growth prospects for 2021
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

It has been widely agreed for a while that economic growth prospcts for 2021 will greatly, if not mainly, depend on the speed and efficiency of Covid vaccination.In this context, the first key piece of domestic news this year is a new statement by PM Orbán that the current lockdown rules will rem...

Rapid vaccination will facilitate economic recovery
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Jan 2021

Rapid vaccination of the population will facilitate economic recovery. Our 2021 GDP growth forecast stands at 3.9% but at 9% y/y in Q421. We do not expect any adjustments to monetary policy today.

Upward revisions of statistics continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

At the very end of December, Rosstat published revised GDP statistics for 2018 and 2019. Also, the statistical agency released its first estimate of the 3Q20 GDP by end-use. Previously it was considered that in 2018 and 2019 the Russian GDP increased by 2.5% and 1.3% accordingly. The new numbers ...

Rapid vaccination will facilitate economic recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jan 2021

Israel has proceeded rapidly with vaccination with over 12% of the population already vaccinated, and half of those 60 or above. Although in the short run, higher infections are likely to lead to more limitations on activity, we expect a rapid recovery commencing in Q221. Our 2021 GDP growth fore...

While we were gone
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2021 · 2 responses

In our first politics commentary of the year, we refrain from making bold predictions, limiting ourselves largely to identifying salient developments and emerging trends since our last report(s). The natural gas pipeline TANAP delivering gas to Europe and a free trade deal with the U.K. headli...

Russian pipeline opens in Serbia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2021 · 1 response

On January 1 the President of Serbia opened the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in his country. A 403 km section of the pipeline passes through Serbia. Russian has and construction companies have been instrumental in the pipeline's completion. Balkan Stream is part of Turkstream. Balkan Stream provide...

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