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Country Insights

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Little Reason to Cheer
VENEZUELA - Forecast 15 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryWe extend our forecast horizon to 2015 and see little reason to cheer. The shift toward deeper state intervention that began last October endures. Monetary, exchange rate, fiscal, and price control policy frameworks are kept in place, worsening distortions and sharpening imbalanc...

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A Court’s Ruling Divides The Country
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 15 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryPreliminary figures set GDP growth for January-September 2013 at 2.9%, most of which is due to the growth registered in Q3, estimated at 5.5%. Leading activities during the period were mining, finance, hotels, bars and restaurants, health services, communications, education, othe...

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Trying Times
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 14 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryThese are trying times for President Benigno Simeon Aquino III. Since late July, the nation’s leader has had to face down an armed conflict in the south, deal with public anger over the theft of public funds and the pork barrel system, counter questions about the legality of his ...

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Marching Steadily Ahead
CHINA - Report 13 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Though news that the economy grew 7.7% this year through Q3 was enthusiastically welcomed by China’s policy community, many are concerned about what Q4 will bring. The most powerful contributor to Q3 growth was the accelerated rise in industrial output, up 9.6% for the fir...

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Retail Sales: Unequal Performance Among Sectors
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Nov 2013
In September, while real retail sales in the restricted sense (without cars and construction materials) grew 0.5%, sales in the augmented sense fell 0.7% (Graph 1). With this, the result for the third quarter was highly discrepant between these two categories: in the restricted sense sales growth...

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Budgetary Sleight of Hand
MEXICO - Report 12 Nov 2013
Executive Summary The most significant economic news out of Mexico last week was the decision by the country’s central bank to adjust its economic growth projections for this year and next. Banco de México (Banxico) said that economic activity indicators for the first half of the year had proven ...

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Stuck on Political Reform
MEXICO - Report 12 Nov 2013
Executive Summary With just over a month to go before the current session concludes, Congress has little to show for its efforts other than progress on budget and tax policy. And although lawmakers are well behind schedule in addressing crucial structural reform issues that the major parties had ...

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Political Insights: Week of November 12
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 Nov 2013
The Friday, November 15, holiday means reduced activities in Congress. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Internet Framework Law. In the Senate, the first round vote on the compulsory budget may be concluded. The Federal Supreme Court (STF) analyzes the Mensalão case on Wednesday and Thur...

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Russian GDP grows 1.2% y-o-y in 3Q
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 12 Nov 2013
According to preliminary Rosstat estimates, Russian GDP expanded 1.2% y-o-y in 3Q13 exactly the same pace as in 2Q13. That has almost matched earlier MED's estimate of 1.3% y-o-y for the quarter. MED estimated that in seasonally adjusted terms GDP declined -0.2% on q-o-q base in 2Q2013. There are...

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Greater Risks and Less Fiscal Policy Leeway
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Nov 2013
Last week the center of attention returned to the timing of the Federal Reserve’s tapering. After the publication of good indicators for the American economy, such as the higher non-farm payroll figures, the rate on 10-year Treasuries climbed nearly 20 basis points (Graph 1). This movement was ac...

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Weekly Tracker: November 10-16
TURKEY - Report 10 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Erdogan’s moral crusade has exhausted all excuses. He is gunning to impose his moral standards on the rest of the nation. The campaign against co-habitation has some real costs and may expose the rifts in AKP. AKP is secure in the polls for the time being, but carrying out sanct...

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Old Problems Resurface
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 07 Nov 2013
Migration issues have topped the Russian political agenda after a tragic incident in a Moscow suburb. Legal and illegal foreign and domestic migrants have been engaged in various conflicts with the traditional population throughout the country, sometimes causing street protests and riots. In abse...

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IPCA: Inflation is Becoming More Bothersome Again
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Nov 2013
As expected, the IPCA for October accelerated, reaching 0.57%, after registering 0.35% the month before. Since the monthly rate was very near that of October last year, the accrued 12-month variation changed very little, falling from 5.86% to 5.84%. The acceleration in October was mainly caused b...

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PM Erdogan Moves to Ban Co-habitation
TURKEY - In Brief 06 Nov 2013
We had predicted that the campaign for the March local elections will witness not only moderately higher budgetary spending, but ”social pork barreling”, namely ultra-conservative measures to appease AKP’s constituency. We were dead right. PM Erdogan told reporters that his “conservative democrat...

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Why is the Venezuela Oil Basket Price Falling?
VENEZUELA - Report 05 Nov 2013
The Venezuela oil basket price[1] has been falling and losing ground relative to WTI and Brent since September 2013. For the first time in two years, the Venezuela basket is lower than WTI.As shown on graph 2, Venezuelan oil prices closely follow Mexican heavy oil Maya. This reflects Pdvsa’s pric...