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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Finally, the Electric Pact was signed
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 Feb 2021 · 2 responses

Yesterday the National Pact for the Reform of the Electricity Sector 2021-2030 was signed. This Pact aims to “build a agreed vision of the electricity system to guide the actions to be developed in the short, medium and long term for the Dominican Republic to have definitively an efficient, compe...

SAUDI ARABIA: Khashoggi report blames MBS and US imposes travel ban on 76 Saudis
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Feb 2021

The declassified summary of the US National Intelligence report is very brief (500 words). It states “we assess” that MBS approved an operation “to capture or kill” Jamal Khashoggi based on: "His control of decision making in the Kingdom;The direct involvement of a key adviser and members of Muha...

No pain, no gain: the IMF on pause amid abundant liquidity
UKRAINE · Report · 26 Feb 2021

The end of the IMF mission without a result, continued nonresident demand for local state bonds and sanctions against advocates of the “Russian world” were the main topics in Ukraine at the start of the year. The IMF virtual mission ended its work in mid-February, reporting “productive discus...

10% of Russian SMEs face closure
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Feb 2021

On February 24 a government study showed that a tenth of small businesses are about to fold. The business ombudsman conducted the study. The survey was published on RBK. The small business sector is irate that almost all government aid has been directed at major corporations, i.e., those most abl...

Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Venezuela: Quasi-sovereigns in Latin America and the evolving relationship with the sovereign
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Feb 2021

​In our live webinar, Juan Carlos Echeverry, Mauricio Gonzalez, Marco Fernandez and Ruth de Krivoy discuss the risks and opportunities to watch for in the sovereign/quasi-sovereign relationship in Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Venezuela. Our webinar is moderated by Joe Kogan, Head of Latin America...

​GULF WEEKLY: Biden calls King Salman, Saudi issues €1.5bn, Kuwait MPs oppose asset withdrawals
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Feb 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * A temporary IAEA nuclear monitoring agreement provides space for US-Iran talks. * The US bombed pro-Iranian militia on the Syria-Iraq border, in retaliation for an attack last week. * Saudi issued €1.5bn in 3 and ...

More problems in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Feb 2021

A number of events have raised the level of concern among local residents about the future of Hong Kong. These include the arrest of media enterpreneur Jimmy Lai and of former leglisator and pro-democracy activist Martin Lee, the imposition of nationalist curriculum in the lower schools, and the ...

Armenian Army denounces the prime minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Feb 2021

On February 24 the army issued a statement expressing its lack of confidence in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyam. The generals said that he was ''incapable of making adequate decisions.'' Pashinyan brought 20 000 admirers onto the streets in a show of force. Pahinyan said that the army top brass' s...

Russian public debt up 40% in one year
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2021

On February 23 the Audit Chamber published data demonstrating that Russia's public sector borrowing ballooned in 2020. The national debt is USD 257 billion: that is 17.8% of GDP. The debt is not large by global standards. However, the government has boasted of the success of its fiscal discipline...

Russian Anti Monopoly Service warns Yandex
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2021

On 24 February it was reported in RBK that the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) has Yandex in its crosshairs. The company has been ordered to prevent its search engine from discriminating against companies disfavored by Yandex. Yandex has a month to address the issue. It could challenge the FA...

The 2021 National Budget Speech signals relief for consumers, companies and investment attraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Feb 2021

The South African government has stressed on a number of occasions – namely, the Mid-Term Budget Policy Statement, after the sovereign ratings downgrade, the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan, the African National Congress January 8th Statement and the 2021 State of the Nation Address – t...

Slow crawl out of the trenches
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Feb 2021

2021 is shaping up to be another lackluster year for the local economy. Hopes of achieving herd immunity have been dashed by delayed vaccine procurement, and the lack of vaccines has meant more caution in relaxing restrictions, keeping segments of the population locked down and public transport a...

Economic resilience will stoke export growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Feb 2021

Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau, as is typical in January, only announced price, financial and PMI data. Producer prices increased fast between June 2020 and January 2021, and finally turned positive. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 1% m/...

COSTA RICA: Turning point ahead?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2021

Costa Rica will be struggling to grow, and to clean up its public finances, this year and next. The outlook for economic activity in 2021 will mark the end of the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also could mark a turning point for the long-standing fiscal deficit, if the Extended...

Constitutional crisis in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

President Sandu's pick as prime minister has twice been rejected by Parliament.Parliament is dominated by the Socialist Party led by Igor Dodon. Dodon lost the presidential election to her in 2020.The Constitutional Court ruled against Sandu, saying she had to consult parliament before nominating...

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