UKRAINE - Report 27 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryRussia is actively intimidating Ukraine, in light of the November Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, where Kyiv expects to sign the EU Association Agreement. In mid-August, Ukrainian exports were effectively stopped for one week at the Russian border. The conflict has seeming...

MEXICO - Report 27 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The slackened pace of economic growth in Mexico was a constant theme of economic news last week, beginning with reports rounding out the first half of the year. During the second quarter, the Mexican economy expanded at a lackluster pace of 1.5% compared to the same period a yea...

TURKEY - Report 27 Aug 2013

Governor Basci's TV Appearance Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it. The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor...

MEXICO - Report 27 Aug 2013

Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto will send Congress the first State of the Nation Report of his administration next Sunday. It will provide a far more subdued assessment than one might have expected a few months ago, when Mr. Peña Nieto rode into office on a wave of domestic and int...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 27 Aug 2013

According to official figures released today by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced in Q2 2013, recording 3.0% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis (q/q saa). This follows a moderation from 2.1% q/q saa in Q4 2012 to 0....

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Aug 2013

Two items on the economic agenda will dominate the week:on Wednesday, the Central Bank is expected to announce another increase in the basic interest rate (Selic), and on Friday, the IBGE releases the second quarter GDP results. Dilma’s popularity increases to 38% The latest poll by the Ibope Ins...

TURKEY - In Brief 27 Aug 2013

After the press conference by Secretary of State Kerry, where he accused Assad of using chemical weapons without a shred of doubt, the world began to take the threat of a NATO-led intervention in Syria more seriously. Pentagon let it be known, that if such a campaign were to happen, its aims will...

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 27 Aug 2013

Main figures of an updated macroeconomic forecast prepared by the Ministry for Economic Development (MED)  were traditonally presented to the press before their official publication in September. According to a new version of the forecast, Russian economy will grow only 1.8% in 2013 (compared to ...

TURKEY - In Brief 27 Aug 2013

Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it.  The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor to send hawkish messages to c...

VENEZUELA - In Brief 26 Aug 2013

By announcing it would award 2035 Pdvsa bonds in the Sicad auction, BCV created the expectation of actual delivery of the bond to companies. In reality, BCV sold the bonds in the market and is awarding dollars. Reference to the market value of the bonds ($239.8 million, 79.9%) in BCV’s notice on ...

CHINA - Report 26 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The vast lands of central and southern China have been hit by heat waves this summer, with recorded temperatures at their highest since 1951. As an unexpected consequence, the economy warmed up, too. Trade rallied significantly. Commodity exports rose 5.1% y/y in July, aft...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 26 Aug 2013

The COPOM will meet this week to decide on the new increment of the SELIC rate. A few days ago, in response to the upward shift in the yield curve reflecting the higher perceived probability of an impending hike of 75 basis points, Mr. Tombini hastily declared that “the yield curve has an excessi...

ECUADOR - Forecast 26 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The GDP growth slowdown that began in Q3 2011 persists, as the government is receiving lower oil revenues, and the economy is absorbing public investment less efficiently. The economy grew 4.8% y/y in Q4 2012, and 1.2% q/q – but in Q1 2013, growth rose just 0.2% q/q, and 3.5% y/...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 24 Aug 2013

With that statement, President Aquino may have hoped to head off a potentially high-strung "Million People March" set on on Monday against a decades-old practice of allocating funds in government's annual budget to legislators for their pet projects. Officially tagged Priority Development Assista...

CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 23 Aug 2013

Executive Summary Under our revised 2013-2014 outlook for the Guatemalan economy, real GDP is expected to grow 3%-3.5%; inflation will stay within the Bank of Guatemala´s target range of 3%-5%; and the quetzal will maintain a 7.9-8 per dollar value. The currency will be supported by a good intern...