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Country Insights

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Russia the Troublemaker
UKRAINE - Report 27 Aug 2013
Executive SummaryRussia is actively intimidating Ukraine, in light of the November Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, where Kyiv expects to sign the EU Association Agreement. In mid-August, Ukrainian exports were effectively stopped for one week at the Russian border. The conflict has seeming...

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PRD's Energy Reform Stand
MEXICO - Report 27 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The slackened pace of economic growth in Mexico was a constant theme of economic news last week, beginning with reports rounding out the first half of the year. During the second quarter, the Mexican economy expanded at a lackluster pace of 1.5% compared to the same period a yea...

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Update on CBT and Syria
TURKEY - Report 27 Aug 2013
Governor Basci's TV Appearance Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it. The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor...

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Blinking in the Face of Protest
MEXICO - Report 27 Aug 2013
Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto will send Congress the first State of the Nation Report of his administration next Sunday. It will provide a far more subdued assessment than one might have expected a few months ago, when Mr. Peña Nieto rode into office on a wave of domestic and int...

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Economic Growth Bounces Back in Q2 2013
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 27 Aug 2013
According to official figures released today by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced in Q2 2013, recording 3.0% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis (q/q saa). This follows a moderation from 2.1% q/q saa in Q4 2012 to 0....

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Political Insights: Week of August 27
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Aug 2013
Two items on the economic agenda will dominate the week:on Wednesday, the Central Bank is expected to announce another increase in the basic interest rate (Selic), and on Friday, the IBGE releases the second quarter GDP results. Dilma’s popularity increases to 38% The latest poll by the Ibope Ins...

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Intervention in Syria, headaches in Ankara
TURKEY - In Brief 27 Aug 2013
After the press conference by Secretary of State Kerry, where he accused Assad of using chemical weapons without a shred of doubt, the world began to take the threat of a NATO-led intervention in Syria more seriously. Pentagon let it be known, that if such a campaign were to happen, its aims will...

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MED lowers 2013 GDP forecast to 1.8% vs 2.4% in April version
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 27 Aug 2013
Main figures of an updated macroeconomic forecast prepared by the Ministry for Economic Development (MED)  were traditonally presented to the press before their official publication in September. According to a new version of the forecast, Russian economy will grow only 1.8% in 2013 (compared to ...

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Basci Disappoints those Expecting a Hawkish Message
TURKEY - In Brief 27 Aug 2013
Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it.  The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor to send hawkish messages to c...

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Taking stock of last week's Sicad auction
VENEZUELA - In Brief 26 Aug 2013
By announcing it would award 2035 Pdvsa bonds in the Sicad auction, BCV created the expectation of actual delivery of the bond to companies. In reality, BCV sold the bonds in the market and is awarding dollars. Reference to the market value of the bonds ($239.8 million, 79.9%) in BCV’s notice on ...

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Heat Wave Warms the Economy
CHINA - Report 26 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The vast lands of central and southern China have been hit by heat waves this summer, with recorded temperatures at their highest since 1951. As an unexpected consequence, the economy warmed up, too. Trade rallied significantly. Commodity exports rose 5.1% y/y in July, aft...

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Inflation, Exchange Rate and the COPOM
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 26 Aug 2013
The COPOM will meet this week to decide on the new increment of the SELIC rate. A few days ago, in response to the upward shift in the yield curve reflecting the higher perceived probability of an impending hike of 75 basis points, Mr. Tombini hastily declared that “the yield curve has an excessi...

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Still Slowing, with Construction and Communications at the Force
ECUADOR - Forecast 26 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The GDP growth slowdown that began in Q3 2011 persists, as the government is receiving lower oil revenues, and the economy is absorbing public investment less efficiently. The economy grew 4.8% y/y in Q4 2012, and 1.2% q/q – but in Q1 2013, growth rose just 0.2% q/q, and 3.5% y/...

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Time to abolish PDAF
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 24 Aug 2013
With that statement, President Aquino may have hoped to head off a potentially high-strung "Million People March" set on on Monday against a decades-old practice of allocating funds in government's annual budget to legislators for their pet projects. Officially tagged Priority Development Assista...

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Guatemala: Keeping the Band-Aids On
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 23 Aug 2013
Executive Summary Under our revised 2013-2014 outlook for the Guatemalan economy, real GDP is expected to grow 3%-3.5%; inflation will stay within the Bank of Guatemala´s target range of 3%-5%; and the quetzal will maintain a 7.9-8 per dollar value. The currency will be supported by a good intern...