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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Prime rate revised upwards by 0.5 ppt, readiness for further increase declared
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Mar 2021

The NBU Board increased the prime rate by 0.5ppt up to 6.5%, according to the NBU press-release. The decision was a bit belated but still somewhat surprising after a dovish communication in January. Experts (consensus forecast, including ourselves) anticipated the prime rate to remain unchanged f...

Pandemic/political update: looking for a change, but not now
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Mar 2021

Even though vaccination in Russia is going slowly, reported daily infection cases have fallen to around 11K, almost half the figure reported a month ago. Around 5.4 mln people were vaccinated at least with one shot in early March, which is very little relative to the country’s population. Nonethe...

IMF loans in doubt but Ukraine receives US military aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2021

On February 28 the IMF completed its review of Ukraine's economy but did not commit to granting the next installment of a USD 5 billion loan to Ukraine. Ukraine anticipates USD 700 million June 2021. The government badly needs the money. Kyiv is trying to win a EUR 600 million subvention from the...

Third wave of Covid-19: a tightening of the lockdown rules has just been announced
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Mar 2021

This morning, the government cabinet has decided the tightening of the existing Covid lockdown rules, in view of the rapidly aggravating domestic Covid situation. Here is today's standing of the domestic daily new infections curve (7-day averages, official data):Under the freshly announced rules:...

Slower rate of devaluation to repress inflation
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 04 Mar 2021

The recovery of the economy since May 2020, after the sharp decline of the previous four months, was faster than previously forecast. In November we had forecast a decline of 12%, similar to the decline estimated by the government in the presentation of the 2020 Budget to Congress. In 2020, the a...

EU will not end sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2021

On March 2 the EU reaffirmed that sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 will not be removed. Those sanctions are in relation to the Ukrainian conflict and have to be extended every six months. The European Council chief is on a 2-day visit to Ukraine at the moment.The EU also announced a new econom...

Salvadorans empower President Nayib Bukele
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

As we have been reporting, legislative and other elections were held on February 28th. As expected, the result was widely favorable to New Ideas, the party of President Nayib Bukele. Reports assure that with about 90% of the votes counted, New Ideas won 66% of the total vote. That percentage, if ...

​UAE: Sharjah taps the bond market despite downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Mar 2021

Sharjah is raising $1bn in 7 and 12-year bonds despite downgrades by rating agencies to the verge of junk status and little sign of a plan to bring its structural deficit under control. Implicit support from Abu Dhabi remains key to the story.

Russian financial markets: securities to play a more significant role for households
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2021

The aggregate amount invested by Russian households in various financial instruments (outside deposits) almost doubled last year and reached R6 trln as of the end of 2020. The total number of brokerage accounts has already exceeded 10 mln units, but further rapid growth of this indicator is less ...

Fidesz has left the EPP's parliamentary faction this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2021

In a letter sent to Manfred Weber, chairman of the European People's Party faction in the European Parliament, PM Orbán wrote that Fidesz representatives are leaving the EPP faction immediately. This followed a vote in the EPP faction earlier today, in which an overwhelming majority of EPP repres...

Understanding the rebound in the economy
INDIA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

The most interesting questions about the Indian economy today are about the rebound in the economy after the depths of the lockdowns. How complete is this recovery? And, looking ahead, will we get back to sustained growth?

​Inflation rises further, but MPC likely to stay put
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2021 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by 0.9%, m/m, in February, higher than the market consensus of 0.7% with the 12-month CPI inflation thus increasing further to 15.6% in February, from 15% in January. Domestic-PPI inflation was 1.2%, m/m, leading to a further sharp jump in the 12-month rate to 27.1%, from 26....

​Alberto Fernandez's Kirchnerist speech during the opening session of Congress
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

President Alberto Fernandez (AF) gave a long yet carefully structured speech during the Congress’s opening session. He reviewed his government’s achievements, defended it from what he called “malicious criticism that responds to unspeakable interests of concentrated economic powers”, and made sev...

A Second Denial to Debate the Bill in Favor of Dollarization
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Mar 2021

By the end of last year considering general comments from legislators on the subject bill, we had hopes for its approval. However, so far, the Administrative Council from the Assembly has denied twice the possibility to debate the bill in the plenary session. Albeit Ministry of Finance Mauricio P...

Give me some doughnuts
CHILE · Report · 02 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Monthly Index of Economic activity (IMACEC) in December surprised strongly on the upside, and provided a slight upward bias to our 2021 growth projection of 6.5%. The monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted series excluding mining was 4.4%, the best result since September 2020. According...

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