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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​KUWAIT: New parliament seems more oppositional, but will pass debt law
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Dec 2020

* It was a rare achievement for the outgoing parliament to complete a four-year term. * The newly elected parliament looks more oppositional, although many new MPs are relative unknowns, given a 62% turnover. * The picture should become clearer in the upcoming vote for a speaker on December 15....

Hungary and Poland are giving up their fiscal veto; great news but be careful for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

Today's obviously great news was the announcement of an agreement between the EU's German Presidency and Hungary / Poland on the latter two members' intended fiscal veto. The two governments are prepared to give up their intention to veto the EU's fiscal package, in exchange for three concessions...

Russian bans tomatoes from Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

On December 9 Moscow announced that from December 10 Azerbaijan tomatoes cannot be imported. The ostensible reason is that they are contaminated with substances that are injurious to human health The ulterior motive might be to penalize Azerbaijan for inviting in Turkish troops.Over 30% of tomato...

Inflation remains elevated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

Inflation during the first week of October was at 0.2% w-o-w. Inflation remains elevated starting from November and will stay high in the weeks ahead. It looks as though budgetary spending, which remained moderate in 10M20 (the government spent around 86% of the initial, pre-pandemic, budget duri...

South Africa registers impressive Q3 GDP growth: a reason to celebrate or an economy wrestling with headwinds?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2020

South Africa (SA) has exited its longest recession in more than two decades, registering 66.1% q/q GDP growth in annualized terms (non-annualized: 13.5%). This, after contracting by 51.7% in the second quarter (non-annualized: 16.4%). A year-on-year comparison shows a contraction of 6%, better th...

Cancellation of USD1.260 b in public debt as a result of a liability management operation.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

The Dominican Government achieved yesterday the cancellation of USD1.26 b of public debt through a liability management operation. The operation consisted of the repurchase of the securities maturing in 2021, 2024 and 2025 and their replacement by the bond maturing in 2032. The latter has a longe...

Judge dictates coercive measures against those accused in the Anti-Pulp Operation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

Last night, Judge José Alejandro Vargas ordered the preventive detention of seven of the eleven defendants in the Anti-Pulpo Operation, including Alexis Medina Sánchez who is the brother of former President Danilo Medina Sánchez. Regarding the remaining defendants, the judge ordered the release w...

Russia’s external balance remains solid in 11M20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

According to a CBR’s flash estimate, the current account surplus reached $29.1 bn in 11M20, while the trade surplus was at $80.6 bn. The latter figure is well in line with CBR’s previous releases – trade surplus reached $64.8 bn in 9M20 and was estimated at $73.0 bn in 10M20, i.e., kept widening....

Decreasing headline inflation in November unlikely to lead to monetary easing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2020

The headline CPI-inflation rate fell further in November, to 2.7% yoy from October's 3%. This was the third consecutive month of a significant decline, which in itself raises the question if monetary easing is likely to happen soon.Our conclusion is that it is not, for a number of reasons. One of...

Russian constitutional reforms take effect
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2020

On December 8 Putin signed the amendments into law. The State Council was solely consultative organ. Its status has been raised to being a constitutional state body whose complement is filled by regional governors and officials by presidential appointment. The State Council shall direct policy bo...

Russia verifies Venezuela election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2020

On December 7 Moscow endorsed the Venezuelan National Assembly election. Russia has a close relationship with Venezuela based on oil interests and common hostility to US hegemony. The US, EU and Organization of American States denounced the election as a sham. The opposition dismissed the electio...

Russia's food production not compensating for sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2020

On December 7 the National Rating Agency published a report on Russia's import substitution policy with regard to food. The report concluded that the government's policies have had little success. The government had hoped for an agricultural boom. Indeed Russian farmers have done well but have no...

Politics: Under-ambitious judicial reform objectives
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2020

By far the weakest link in Mexico’s hopes for consolidating its democracy is the extent to which power is exercised in a manner far removed from an indispensable democratic prerequisite: respect for the rule of law. The country’s federal and state court systems have long been plagued by grave lev...

The succession in Congress after the STF decision and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2020

This is a week with important votes on the Congressional agenda. In the House, votes are scheduled for the BR do Mar proposal, the bill on state debt, and the bill on the use of public funds to fight the pandemic. In the Senate, the new law on public tenders and the regulatory framework for the n...

No agreement seems to have been reached on the rule-of-law mechanism until tonight
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2020

A short while ago, foreign minister Szíjjártó told Reuters in Brussels that Hungary and Poland are holding themselves to their intention to veto the 7-year EU budget and the recovery package attached to it.Also today, an unnamed diplomat at the EU has told Reuters that the two countries have been...

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