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​Latest on Idlib: Russia delegation arrives in Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Feb 2020 · 1 response

I am still in no position to craft an analysis about the war in Idlib between Turkey and the Damascus regime. Fighting rages in two fronts, report Turkish press and international sources, but it is noteworthy that Turkish press and media have suddenly dialed down the intensity of the coverage, wh...

Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems (report preview)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 1.1% in January, implying seemingly a rather slow start for the year. Manufacturing, however, expanded by a more impressive 3.9% y-o-y growth, which was on a par with 4Q19 y-o-y growth (the same 3.9%). Mining, power generation and supply of...

HEADS UP: Military action started in Idlib
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Feb 2020

This is not a Market Brief, because news broke only an hour ago, leaving me no time for analysis. However, TL denominated assets are spooked, therefore I owe our audience a brief HEADS UP. As Turkish press reports “Anti-Assad Rebels supported by elements of Turkish Armed Forced staged a counterat...

Ukrainians evacuated from China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2020

On February 19 the Ukrainian Government's chartered plane flew Ukrainian citizens out of Wuhan, China. Kyiv has been criticized for being so tardy in getting its people out of the affected area. The Ukrainians evacuated from Wuhan will be isolated in an undisclosed location for two weeks before b...

Wobbly lira doesn't deter the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Feb 2020 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 50 bps today, bringing the cumulative cuts since July to 1325 bps, and the policy rate to 10.75% (see chart). Probably reflecting the ongoing pressures on the currency, it was a little hard to speak of a consensus befo...

Good king, bad nobles: despite scandals, Zelenskiy still #1
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Feb 2020

The year was off to a bumpy start. January began with the shocking news of the Ukrainian passenger plane crash in Iran. Ukrainian officials seemed unsure of how to react to this tragedy, which killed 176 people. As world leaders began blaming Iran, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was still making v...

Weakening growth and currency, exploding inflation: a more colorful picture than so far
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2020

The macro picture has become more dynamic and colorful over the past month than previously. The most recent data marks a downward adjustment in industrial output, the most export-driven part of the economy, and more may be coming if the coronavirus problem sets back the Chinese economy to a serio...

Russia-backed fighters unleashed large offensive at Donbas
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Feb 2020

Today at 5 a.m. near the points of mutual forces’ withdrawal Russia-backed fighters started large-scale shelling of Ukrainian positions and followed with an offensive, according to the headquarter of Ukrainian Army. The battle still continues by the time of this writing. We have not observed that...

Politics: Impunity and objective merit in security
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2020

The crisis of the criminal justice system that has steadily deepened since the federal government’s offensive against organized crime was launched almost 14 years ago is becoming even more visible. And now there is the aggravating factor that some of the most significant steps toward reform, espe...

Brazilian Politics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Feb 2020

This is the week before Carnaval but there are important events on the agenda. Jair Bolsonaro will install Gen. Walter Braga Netto as his Chief of Staff and Onyx Lorenzoni as Minister of Social Development. In the Senate, the CCJ may vote on the Funds Amendment. The Joint Committee on Tax Refo...

Economics: The risks of further rate cuts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Banco de México’s decision last week to implement its fifth consecutive rate cut in as many meetings validates the fact that interest rates remained high in light of inflation estimates and global monetary policy trends. In the statement that accompanied the rate announcement, Banxico cited conti...

Economic Activity: The Real Deal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Economic activity finished 2019 with another disappointing result: the IBC-Br fell by 0.3% in December, after decreasing by 0.1% in November. Despite these clearly negative results, the economy expanded by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, slightly behind the figure for the third quarter (0.6%). We do ...

Negative inflation y/y in Q1 will put pressure on the MPC to act
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Inflation in January (0.3% y/y) came in at the low end of consensus, with core inflation moderating to 0.35% y/y. Declining inflation y/y is expected to continue in the coming months (-0.3% in March), which will put pressure on the MPC. Our inflation forecast for the NTM stands at 1.1%, of which ...

Electoral board calls for new municipal elections
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Feb 2020

This afternoon, the Central Electoral Board formally convened new municipal elections for Sunday, March 15. The board indicated that they will be held exclusively with paper ballots. This helps to de-escalate tensions and the electoral crisis. The main political actors are clearly interested in t...

Municipal elections cancelled; electoral crisis unfolding
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

This Sunday, the day when municipal elections were scheduled to be held, the unexpected happened: after 11am, the electoral board decided to cancel the elections. The decision was made due to the serious problems that affected the electronic voting system. The president of the electoral board ind...

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