Country Insights

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Congress Takes on Corruption
MEXICO - Report 06 May 2015

Executive Summary

With inflation in check, Mexico’s internal market continued to firm through March, thanks to job growth, wages that rose 5.8% y/y in real terms in Q1, and a firming of consumer confidence that has driven stronger retail sales. The tertiary sector has been the prime ...

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Anticlimax, for now
VENEZUELA - Report 06 May 2015

President Maduro’s May 1st announcements were underwhelming. He didn’t take over Polar or other companies but left open the risk of potential takeovers in the food sector by exhorting Polar workers to ready themselves for “big challenges”. With threatening tone he announced "the great socialis...

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Deflation Continues
CHINA - Forecast 06 May 2015

Executive Summary

Crimped by economic slowdown and weak demand, GDP growth slid to a new low in Q1, edging up just 0.3 pp from Q4 2014, to 7% y/y. Value added for major industrial firms fell 1.2 pp, to grow only 6.4% y/y. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6%...

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Volatile Signals
CHILE - Report 05 May 2015
Executive Summary Incoming data, especially on economic activity and consumption, must be taken with a grain of salt. This is because of the two significant natural disasters that hit the country in the past two months. Their economic impact is not easy to assess. On the consumption side, i...

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Michel Temer faces first big challenge
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 05 May 2015

The House of Representatives may vote this afternoon on the first interim measure of the fiscal adjustment: MP 665/14, on unemployment insurance and salary bonuses. The vote will be the first major test of Vice President Michel Temer. In early April he took over the government’s political coor...

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Sowing the Seeds of Uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA - Forecast 05 May 2015

Executive Summary

Confidence across sections of the South African economy remains low, dragged by uncertainties about the electricity supply, industrial relations instability and socioeconomic tension.

In all, economic performance appears to have entered a slow down phase. S...

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Returning to the “markets”?
ARGENTINA - Report 04 May 2015

Executive Summary

With the objective of validating access to the local capital market and softening the financing burden of sterilization costs on the Central Bank, the government reversed its prior “capital market independent” strategy, placing AR$ and US$ debt.

The US$ deb...

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Week of May 4
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 May 2015

This week, the House tries to vote on its first fiscal austerity measure: MP 655, which deals with unemployment insurance and salary bonuses. In the Senate, Finance Minister Joaquim Levy speaks about the crisis and the long term expectations for the country. The IBGE will release April inflati...

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Difficulties in Achieving the Primary Surplus Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 May 2015
In this note we summarize the fiscal result for the first quarter, and based on the Central Government’s accounts, discuss the difficulties in meeting the target of 1.2% of GDP. With full transparency and without any artifices, in March the Central Government attained a primary surplus of R$ 1...

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But Next Year, It Will Get Better...
TURKEY - Report 04 May 2015

Today’s inflation print was unfavorable, with CPI inflation coming in at a higher than expected 1.6%, m/m. This has raised the 12-month CPI rate to just under 8% (7.9%, to be precise), further complicating the CBRT’s job and expectation management (Table 1; Graph 1).Food is largely to blame fo...

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Weekly Tracker: May 3-9
TURKEY - Report 03 May 2015

Executive Summary

We reviewed the latest polls and revisited our scenarios. In 6 recent polls that we find credible, AKP is firmly in the lead but HDP makes it to parliament by the skin of its nose, while CHP is treading water. Nevertheless, poll momentum suggests that short-lived co...

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CBR cut key rate by 150 b.p., to 12.5%
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 01 May 2015

Yesterday CBR’s of Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 150 b.p., from 14% to 12.5%. The market consensus was for 100-200 b.p. cut, so the decision was right in the middle. The cut was largely expected in the light of stabilizing inflation and RUB appreciation in the last three...

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New PM a Peacemaker So Far
PERU - Forecast 01 May 2015

Executive Summary

GDP growth at 2.4% in 2014 was very disappointing, after the 5.5% average annual growth of the previous five years. While part of the slowdown can be attributed to transitory supply shocks, affecting fisheries and agriculture, investment growth has stagnated, after ...

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Important follow-up to yesterday’s report, “Financial Reform Rollbacks”
INDIA - In Brief 01 May 2015

I would like to rectify some of the analysis presented in yesterday’s report entitled “Financial Reform Rollbacks”.

In my report yesterday I said: One key area of failure was tax policy and tax administration. As these reports have emphasized, the budget did not have a plan for...

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Dominican Rep politics: Bill declaring the need to allow re-election introduced in the Senate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 01 May 2015

In a bold move, yesterday 13 Senators introduced a bill in the Senate declaring the need to amend article 124 of the Constitution and calling for a joint session of the Senate and the House in order to introduce changes. The amendment would allow an incumbent President to run for re-electio...