ARGENTINA - In Brief 19 Nov 2013

As we mentioned in our market brief on October the 28th, after the mid-term elections, there have been rumors that that Hernán Lorenzino would be stepping down as Economic Minister and being replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors were that such change would be announced once Cristina...

TURKEY - Report 19 Nov 2013

Today, the CBT/MPC kept all policy rates (weekly repo and O/N corridor) unchanged as expected, but said the following, which was the critical sentence of the statement: "In order to contain the impact of these developments on the pricing behavior, the Committee decided to strengthen the cautious ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Nov 2013

Ibope released a new poll on the 2014 presidential race, conducted from November 7-11. Four possible scenarios were polled. In every scenario, Dilma Rousseff (PT) has a strong lead over her possible adversaries. In the first scenario, presented in Table 1, President Dilma widened her lead over he...

TURKEY - In Brief 19 Nov 2013

Today, the CBT/MPC kept all policy rates (weekly repo and O/N corridor) unchanged as expected, but said the following: "In order to contain the impact of these developments on the pricing behavior, the Committee decided to strengthen the cautious stance and reduce the volatility of short term mon...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Nov 2013

Election years are usually accompanied by political cycles: governments abandon fiscal and monetary austerity in search of ways to stimulate aggregate demand and reduce unemployment. The overall aim is to boost the popularity of the candidate supported by the party in power. This happened in Braz...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 18 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryTrade data revisions and the South African Reserve Bank’s new asset allocation strategy are the latest facelift features of the South African economic landscape. On close inspection, it seems the timing of these measures is reactive. Policymaking has shifted into firefighting gea...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Nov 2013

President Dilma Rousseff begins the week trying to impede the voting on bills with fiscal impact.On Monday, she meets with senators and, on Tuesday, with her Political Council. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Internet Framework Law. Congress will try to vote on the LDO and the bill tha...

CHILE - In Brief 17 Nov 2013

Michelle Bachelet obtained a solid 47% of the votes this Sunday in the Presidential election. But this result is not enough to be elected president. She needed 50% (plus one) of the votes. In the second round, Bachelet will face Evelyn Matthei who obtained 25% of the preferences. Marco Enriquez c...

TURKEY - Report 17 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Rojava Kurds declared “autonomy”, an act that will change the progress of the Syrian war and Turkey’s own Peace Process. As the line of first defense, PM Erdogan invited Iraqi Kurdish leader Mr. Barzani to Diyarbakir to sponsor his party and the Peace Process. There are rumors t...

VENEZUELA - Forecast 15 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryWe extend our forecast horizon to 2015 and see little reason to cheer. The shift toward deeper state intervention that began last October endures. Monetary, exchange rate, fiscal, and price control policy frameworks are kept in place, worsening distortions and sharpening imbalanc...

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 15 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryPreliminary figures set GDP growth for January-September 2013 at 2.9%, most of which is due to the growth registered in Q3, estimated at 5.5%. Leading activities during the period were mining, finance, hotels, bars and restaurants, health services, communications, education, othe...

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 14 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryThese are trying times for President Benigno Simeon Aquino III. Since late July, the nation’s leader has had to face down an armed conflict in the south, deal with public anger over the theft of public funds and the pork barrel system, counter questions about the legality of his ...

CHINA - Report 13 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Though news that the economy grew 7.7% this year through Q3 was enthusiastically welcomed by China’s policy community, many are concerned about what Q4 will bring. The most powerful contributor to Q3 growth was the accelerated rise in industrial output, up 9.6% for the fir...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Nov 2013

In September, while real retail sales in the restricted sense (without cars and construction materials) grew 0.5%, sales in the augmented sense fell 0.7% (Graph 1). With this, the result for the third quarter was highly discrepant between these two categories: in the restricted sense sales growth...

MEXICO - Report 12 Nov 2013

Executive Summary The most significant economic news out of Mexico last week was the decision by the country’s central bank to adjust its economic growth projections for this year and next. Banco de México (Banxico) said that economic activity indicators for the first half of the year had proven ...