Country Insights

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Strategy For Financial Reform Is Becoming Visible
INDIA - Report 11 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryFor the last decade, financial reforms in India have floundered. The game plan that now seems to be clearly visible comprises of a long term strategy and a two-pronged short term strategy. The long-term strategy is to enact some version of the draft Indian Financial Code, a new l...

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Zooming in on Manufacturing
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 11 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryA favorable performance of the South African manufacturing sector is indispensable for achieving robust and sustained domestic economic growth. This is evidenced by the fact that a poor performance of the domestic manufacturing sector largely contributed to a shocking Q1 2013 gro...

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Economy Says, End Taksim Peacefully
TURKEY - Report 11 Jun 2013
Two important data prints were released today: GDP grew by a better-than expected 3% in Q1, y/y, while April current account deficit was a wider than expected $8.2 billion.Both prints are problematic in our view, as they yield signs of a struggling economy on two fronts: a not so healthy growth d...

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Q2 Health is an Illusion
ARGENTINA - Report 11 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryAppreciation of the parallel exchange rate, and a temporary fall in inflation, have moderated economic instability. But inflation and FX dynamics were mostly driven by unsustainable price controls, aggressive FX intervention in the blue-chip swap, and monetary contraction, bolste...

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AKP strikes back
TURKEY - In Brief 11 Jun 2013
Yet another fateful day in Turkish history. Arinc promised Erdogan will meet a delegation of Gezi Parki protestors tomorrow. But this morning riot police entered the Taksim Square to remove the banners and to end the occupation.  Clashes throughout the day and across the country a possibility to ...

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States and Municipalities Add to the Fiscal Expansion
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Jun 2013
The weak economic growth and expansionary fiscal policy that have raised the risks of dangerous growth of the public debt were responsible for the change in the Brazilian outlook from stable to negative by S&P. In addition to the decline in the primary surplus of the central government, which was...

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Change Course?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryConcern over inflation has led the Central Bank to signal a more intense monetary tightening cycle is in store, with the yield curve last week indicating the cycle might end with the SELIC rate at 9.25%. The high inflation is being driven by the steep increase in absorption in pr...

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CBR leaves key rates unchanged, cuts some long term refinancing rates by 25 b.p.
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 10 Jun 2013
As we have expected today's CBR Board of Directors meeting came with little surprise. The Board decided to leave key rates unchanged citing May inflation levels in accompanying press-release. At the same time certain rate on long term refinancing operations (181-365 days) were cut by 25 b.p.  The...

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What to look for in the new week
TURKEY - In Brief 10 Jun 2013
What to look for in the new week:   Gul has until Tuesday 5 pm to decide what to do with the bill restricting alcohol sales and consumption.   Erdogan declared war on banks and speculators who caused the collapse in the stock market last week.  BRSA or capital Markets Board could initiate probes ...

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Weekly Tracker: June 9-15
TURKEY - Report 09 Jun 2013
Executive Summary This weekly has been written in the manner of a strategy piece, focusing on the political, economic and market implications of ongoing Gezi Parki protests, together with potential spillovers from the region. In addition, we took a quick look at the key data releases of the week:...

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Ready, Set, Go!
PANAMA - Report 08 Jun 2013
All the Cards are on the Table: Governing Party has a chosen OneAccording to the two main polls in Panama, Ditcher & Neira and IPSOS, as of May 2013, there has been a significant change in the political scenario; however, both polls reflect such change in a somewhat different perspective. Accordi...

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Weekend preview
TURKEY - In Brief 08 Jun 2013
A very critical day in Gezi Parkı protests.  First Gul ought to decide what to do with the law on restricting alcohol sales. A veto would go a long way to soothe secularist tensions. Secondly, AKP is convening its administrative body to decide how to respond to demonstrations. Finally, we will be...

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S&P Changes Brazil’s Outlook from Stable to Negative
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Jun 2013
S&P announced a change in Brazil's outlook from stable to negative. The decision was based on the fact that, in the absence of corrective measures, the weak GDP growth combined with a continually expansionary fiscal policy (including off-budget measures) generates the risk of weakening the countr...

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Tackling the Collapse of Growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 07 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryOne of the lowest rates in 10 years, Q1 growth came in far below expectations at just 0.3% y/y. Nearly every field shrank: local manufacturing, construction, commerce, hotels, bars and restaurants, and energy and water. The collapse was the result of falling domestic demand, both...

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How Will We Pay for Putin's Promises?
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 06 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryDissatisfied with the slowness of implementing his year-old decrees to raise salaries for a range of public employees, President Vladimir Putin met with members of his cabinet on May 7th, and asked them to speed up their efforts. Most initiatives involve extra government spending...