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Unexpectedly low fiscal deficit target set for 2015
HUNGARY - In Brief 28 Oct 2014
Fact: The Fiscal Council released its preliminary assessment of the government's budget draft for next year. The draft itself is not publicly known yet, but from the Council's statement, it became clear that the 2015 general government deficit target has been set at 2.4% of GDP, following the 2.9...

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Edge of the Precipice
UKRAINE - Report 28 Oct 2014
Executive SummaryAs the armed conflict has calmed down, parliamentary elections have brought in a pro-reformist coalition, and important reforms (such as a series of anti-corruption measures) have been launched. Some positive developments are in the making. At the same time, we continue to see ma...

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Consequences of a Distortion in Measurement of the Real Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Oct 2014
Executive Summary Since August 2011 the real exchange rate measured in relation to the basket of currencies has depreciated by more than 25%. However, seasonally adjusted monthly exports and imports have continued to fluctuate around an approximately constant level, generating nil trade balanc...

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EL SALVADOR: Politics Hampering Economics
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 27 Oct 2014
Executive SummaryWe expect the next 15 months in El Salvador to be marked by slow growth, low inflation, and a high, if declining, current account deficit. The fiscal deficit will be stable but high, burdened by pension system financing demands. It is basically the same picture we’ve seen for the...

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The Growing Current Account Deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Oct 2014
The current transactions deficit continues to increase. In September it again exceeded the consensus projections, rising to US$ 83.6 billion over the past 12 months, or 3.7% of GDP. This is the highest 12-month deficit since March 2002. The quality of its financing has also been worsening. Since ...

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Dilma Reelected and Second Term Begins with Political Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Oct 2014
16 years in power Dilma Rousseff was reelected to a second term with the support of 54,501,118 voters (51.64% of valid votes), handing Aécio Neves’ (51,041,155, 48.36%) PSDB its fourth consecutive defeat.This is the PT’s slimmest margin of victory over the PSDB. When Dilma leaves office in four y...

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Weekly Tracker: October 27-November 2
TURKEY - Report 27 Oct 2014
Executive Summary The politics section starts with an analysis of Ankara’s grave errors of judgment in the course of the Syrian War. As a result of these, Turkey imported an al-Qaeda problem, it argues. Meanwhile, the Peace Process is most probably put on ice until after the 2015 general election...

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Exit-polls: Pro-Reformist Majority Looks Secured
UKRAINE - In Brief 26 Oct 2014
The voters, which were indecisive (near 1/3 of voters), indeed delivered surprises. Block of Petro Poroshenko was reported only slightly above "Narodny front" (Arseniy Yatsenyuk). "Sylna Ukraina" of Sergey Tigipko is out. Communist party also did not pass 5% barrier. At the same time "Samopomitch...

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Weekly Tracker: Oct 26-Nov 1
TURKEY - Report 26 Oct 2014
Executive Summary A “yellow substance” mailed to five consulates in Istanbul may turn out to be anthrax bacteria, which could stoke terror anxiety in the markets on Monday. Ankara reluctantly granted access to Iraqi peshmerga to enter Syrian Kurdish town Kobane, which may still fall to ISIS. Turk...

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Polling Institutes Disagree; Presidential Race Still Open
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Oct 2014
The second round between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) is completely open.Today, five polls were released (Ibope, Datafolha, MDA, Sensus and Vox Populi).Dilma is in the lead according to Ibope and Vox Populi.Datafolha presents a technical tie, with a slight lead for Dilma.MDA and Sen...

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No Adjustment Till 2014
VENEZUELA - Report 25 Oct 2014
Executive Summary Our already gloomy outlook on economic policy has darkened over the last month. A relatively pragmatic head of economic policy has been demoted in favor of more traditional chavista policymakers. President Maduro has formally requested special powers to rule by decree. The gover...

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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Oct 2014
Dilma expands lead over Aécio, according to Datafolha and Ibope but race still open Dilma Rousseff (PT) has expanded her lead over Aécio Neves (PSDB) in the Datafolha and Ibope polls released on Thursday, by six and seven points respectively.The results of the polls were positive for Dilma: 1) Fo...

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Aécio Neves wins the TV Globo debate
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Oct 2014
In all the second round debates, Aécio Neves (PSDB) has generally performed better than Dilma Rousseff (PT).This time was no different.Dilma, however, performed much worse than in the other debates.At times confused and stammering, the PT candidate could have done better. If the Globo debate has ...

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CNT/MDA: Aécio surpasses Dilma
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Oct 2014
This morning a CNT/MDA presidential poll was released.According to the poll, Aécio Neves (PSDB) has 50.3% of valid votes, while the PT candidate has 49.7% of valid votes.The poll has a 2.2 percentage point margin of error. The poll presents a growth trend for the PSDB candidate and a decline for ...

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Dominican Rep: Jan-Sep GDP growth: 7%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 24 Oct 2014
The Central Bank announced that accumulated GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year reached 7%, almost twice as much as the rate registered for the same period in 2013. Mining was the leading activity with 24.1%, followed by construction (10.7%), tourism (8.2%), health (8.2%) and fina...