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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​OMAN: Hopeful signs in Sultan Haitham’s first speech
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Feb 2020 · 1 response

On February 23, following the end of the 40-day mourning period, Sultan Haitham made his first policy speech to the nation. It was broadcast live on TV, and there were some positive reactions from locals in Oman. As would be expected, the speech lacks many specifics, and it certainly doesn’t lay ...

Politics: Bringing business to heel
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2020

A unique dinner party reported by the media that took place at the National Palace nine days ago embodied the curiously ambiguous relationship President Manuel Andrés López Obrador has established with Mexico’s business class. The country’s wealthiest and most powerful business leaders were in at...

No further steps from the MNB to tighten liquidity today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

At today's weekly FX swap tender, the MNB sold HUF 77bn of new swaps, implying that the stock of outstanding swaps will remain essentially unchanged at HUF 1942bn, given an almost equal amount of maturities. This seems to mean that the Bank intends to refrain from further steps to tighten liquidi...

Rethinking growth in 2020
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Feb 2020 · 5 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • COVID-19 will probably not reduce China’s GDP growth in 2020 but will instead shift growth from “high quality” to “low quality” areas as the government compensates later this year for any slowdown by increasing discretionary spending. This of course h...

Rates on hold, but door left open for future accomodation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

Rates will remain on hold for now. The MPC noted that inflation continues to be low, January's CPI surprised on the low side, and both headline and core inflation have moderated, but the MPC sees this is due mostly to shekel appreciation. They are also aware that y/y inflation may be negative in ...

Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2020

As the Russian economy reportedly grew by a mere 1.3% in 2019, and this rate of growth looks much lower than the revised 2.5% in 2018, the key question now is not only what has caused this deceleration but also where the economy is heading in 2020. Rosstat reported that industrial output was ...

We cannot rule out additional monetary measures today
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Feb 2020

Recent data (BoI Composite Index) suggests that economic growth remains steady and in line with long-term potential. Nevertheless, a declining inflation environment, the strong shekel and elevated global risks will support the doves on the MPC. The market is not expecting a rate cut today, but we...

Russia containing coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

On February 21 Moscow City authorities announced that they were quarantining 2500 people who have arrived from China. Russia has had 2 confirmed cases of coronavirus. The reduced trade with China is costing Russia USD 16 million per day said the Ministry of Finance. Chinese phone manufacturers ha...

We cannot rule out additional monetary measures today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

Highlights of Weekly Report: Growth remains at potential in early 2020 The composite index increased by 0.25% m/m, similar to the pace in Q419. Revenues from the total economy increased by 2.6% saar in Q419. Nevertheless, manufacturing contracted by 0.7% saar in Q419. The PMI declined by 1.7 poin...

Protests over election suspension shake the country
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Since last week, the country has been shaken. Following the suspension of municipal elections on Sunday, February 16, numerous peaceful protests have been organized in the main urban centers of the country. The most notable have occurred in Santo Domingo, the capital city, in front of the Central...

Chinese built logistics center in Kyrgyzstan cancelled
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2020

On February 21 it was announced that the center in Ata Bashi will not go ahead. It was to be called Naryn Free Economic Zone will no longer have a logistic center built by the Chinese. The center was going to cost USD 275 million. A joint statement was issued by both parties to the agreement. One...

Data vs reality
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Idlib clashes continue, but we don’t expect full-scale military engagement until the March 5th summit among Erdogan, Putin, Merkel and Macron. Our end-game scenario still envisages Ankara battling Damascus to keep its share of Idlib. Covid-19 is devastating Iran as we write these lines, and Tu...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2020

• Russia prepares for poll on far-reaching changes to the constitution; • In Azerbaijan the ruling party was comfortably re-elected in a disputed election; • Ukraine and Russia made more tentative moves towards peace – though Minsk Agreement now being questioned; • Clashes between native Kazak...

​Gulf weekly: Lebanon nears default, Sharjah downgraded and Kuwait has a new finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The OPEC+ meeting will not be brought forward as coronavirus concerns ease somewhat. * Tensions in Yemen increased after Houthi rebels shot down ...

South Africa Conference Call - South Africa 2020 - The Budget, the SONA and the country's ratings
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Join us for a conference call as our Johannesburg-based South Africa Country Analyst Iraj Abedian explores the implications of the 2020 State of the Nation and Budget announcements on the prospects for the country's growth, political dynamics and social stability, and sovereign debt ratings.

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