Country Insights

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Political Insights: Week of November 25
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Nov 2013
A very busy week in Brasília:The Federal Supreme Court rules on a case with potential impact for banks in the billions. The Copom holds its final meeting of the year to decide on interest rates.In the House, leaders try to build an agreement to vote on the Internet Framework Law.Petrobras may ann...

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The Signals from the Labor Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 25 Nov 2013
Since the middle of 2012, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has been holding steady near historic minimum levels. However, this is not the result of hiring from a growing labor force flow, which if true would indicate progressive tightening of the job market. In reality what has been happ...

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Growth Revival? Don’t Hold Your Breath
CHINA - Forecast 25 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Though GDP rose 0.2 pp in Q3, to 7.8 y/y, the pick-up was mainly due to certain temporal factors. Q4 growth is likely to retreat to 7.7% in Q4, and next year. Investment expansion has been the main growth driver, and is increasing faster than last year. Infrastructure and urban ...

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Is It New Revolution?
UKRAINE - In Brief 24 Nov 2013
The exciting bluffing game of Viktor Yanukovicth was interrupted with social outburst which has been aggravating since the stoppage of Euro-integration process was announced.  On that day (November 21st) social nets exploded with comments of people who emotionally reacted to the change in Ukraine...

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Weekly Tracker: November 24-30
TURKEY - Report 24 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryErdogan launched a crusade on its erstwhile ally the Gulen Church, which could morph into the most important schism in Turkish politics of the last decade. Why is he doing that?Barzani’s visit to Diyarbakir generated new energy deals with Iraqi Kurdistan, but no progress on the P...

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Ten Hungry Years?
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 22 Nov 2013
Executive Summary The Economy Ministry has sharply lowered its long-term growth forecast for 2013-2030. This is because it relies upon a conservative base scenario, of 2.5% instead of 4.1% CАAGR. While we aren’t in a position to reassess the significance of official forecasts, or the figures used...

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Elevated Inflation Risks Concern the SARB
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 21 Nov 2013
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pointed out today that it expects the inflation rate to hang around 6% - the upper limit of the target range. These worries over persistent inflation come even though the headline inflation rate has recently made its way...

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Elevated Inflation Risks Concern the SARB
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 21 Nov 2013
In our opinion, the most important message to take from today’s MPC meeting is that currency volatility and weakness complicates the inflation outlook. Despite a recently adopted move to reduce exposure to the US dollar, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has generally not shown a keen interes...

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Does Ukraine Stop EU Association Process?
UKRAINE - In Brief 21 Nov 2013
 A strange document has been released by the Cabinet today. The prime-minister Mykola Azarov ordered the state bodies to stop preparation activities to EU Association agreement.  The regulation also suggested creation of three-side working group with representatives of EU and Russia for solving t...

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President Santos Will Seek a 2nd Term
COLOMBIA - In Brief 20 Nov 2013 2 responses
In a national TV broadcast, Juan Manuel Santos announced his intention to be reelected as Colombia's President next year.His reasons to run again: the need to continue fighting the war on poverty, improving security, increasing overall quality of life and achieving peace.He has yet to announce wh...

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Some Thoughts on Today's CBT Meeting
TURKEY - In Brief 20 Nov 2013
I have attended the CBT’s regular monthly meeting with economists today.  The key message is that the Bank is trying to simplify and normalize monetary policy.  First, they seem to have realised that, as far as inflation dynamics go, they have run out of excuses, with core and service inflation b...

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Blowing Hot and Cold at the Same Time: Moreno Resigned, Kicillof Economic Minister
ARGENTINA - Report 20 Nov 2013
As we mentioned in our market brief of October 28[1], there were rumors that Hernán Lorenzino would step down as Economic Minister and be replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors speculated that the change would be announced once Cristina Fernández de Kirchner returned from her medical...

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New Taxes to Weigh on Economy
MEXICO - Report 20 Nov 2013
Executive Summary Last week the Chamber of Deputies passed the Federal Spending Budget (FSB) for 2014. It authorizes 8.47 trillion pesos in spending, a real term 8.8% increase over the 2013 spending budget.According to the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), the budget favors investment expenditure over ...

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Shortchanging Public Security
MEXICO - Report 20 Nov 2013
Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration has been roundly criticized for the slow pace with which it has defined some key strategies and programs and has gotten the basic machinery of government up and running since taking office last December. This lethargy has been striki...

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Banning Pork
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 20 Nov 2013
Voting unanimously, the Supreme Court yesterday found the Priority Develpment Assistance Fund (PDAF), i.e., the lawmakers' pork barrel funds, unconstitutional, ordering some P14.5 billion remaining in the fund to be returned to the Treasury. On the whole, we think that this outcome is favorable t...